B.C. Numbers

[TGJB]

Michael, you\'re welcome. You know, another point to keep in mind relates to what Miff said below-- drugs are a fact of life in this game, and the only way to handle them in your figures is to give them better ones, since from a practical point of view we have to be able to compare horses to each other, and don\'t get a drug-beaten-length allowance. The addition of lasix, steroids and other drugs have made a big difference (in the case of steroids, not just with horses), and that doesn\'t even count direct performance enhancers, the effects of which we all have to deal with as handicappers when horses change hands. Does this make them \"better horses\"? No. Does it make them run faster? Try betting against them.

I actually was contacted by both the Thoroughbred Times and Thoroughbred Daily News on the subject of horses getting faster in the last couple of days, and the articles should be appearing soon.

[MO]

Hey CtC,

How about the Breeders Cup at the New mexico State Fairgrounds? Then you can factor in shipping to a desert climate, mile high altitude, the tumbleweed factor (if one blows in front of a horse and he steps on it - ouch!) LOL



Post Edited (11-07-04 14:07)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

ronwar wrote:

> CtC wrote
>
> \"Funny is not done. If Tagg were juicing this guy would be all
> the raves.\"
>
> lol
>
> Would anyone be surprised if Funny is taken away from Tagg?
>

Well, its all about money and until they stop it, I\'d probably want a level playing field too. What are you gonna do otherwise, lose with good horses? Like Frankel really comes up with these many good horses year after year.

Banged Churchills 8th today.....murdered it. Can\'t wait to see what T-Graph did with Strength and Honor.

[richiebee]

Churchill EVERY year?

Sorry, Bel is still the best facility for
world class racing, even if it means some distance races will be contested at one
turn.

How about every fourth or fifth year BC is
held at European venue with all BC races held on turf. I know there are many logistical probs (medication, time difference) but BC at age 20 needs a shot
in the arm

>But in general it\'s not that simple, since you have to move the figures you assign for each race as a solid grid<

I understand what you are saying and doing.

I am talking about the \"very marginal decisions\" in interpreting results that can be influenced by subjective views on trips etc...

It doesn\'t matter much to me one way or the other because I don\'t have to bet on Secretariat vs. Ghostzapper. :-) The process of slowly shrinking/expanding/flat figures happens so slowly it doesn\'t matter much to me as a bettor.

I\'m just trying to explain it.

Beyer\'s figures have been very flat over the years - probably because they are anchored to or doublechecked against pars fairly often (which can be a problem as you have described).

Rags figures appear to be getting slowly faster.

Yours are also getting faster, but faster than Rags.

JB,

I know you are probably not going to concede this point, but \"if\" there are impacts on final time that result from position, pace, quality of competition, and other aspects of trip there are going to be occasions when you might overrate a race.

Here is one example:

If a very dominant horse that usually runs a -2 happens to get in a 3 way duel with horses that usually run a +1 and he draws off to win by much more than that difference in speed suggests, there are 2 ways to intepret that result.

1. The -2 ran a faster race than a -2 and the +1s ran back to their race.

2. The two +1s were used up chasing after a superior horse and ran equal performances but slower than expected. The -2 ran back to his -2.

Isolated incidents like #1 would tend to lead to figures that are getting faster and faster over the very long haul (ever so slowly and imperceptably) and they might not be correct.

IMHO, you may be 100% correct that horses are getting faster. I do not know, but you present a fairly compelling case for that. However, you might also be overstating how much faster they are getting because of a bias in your thinking about the impact of various aspects of trip.

[asfufh]

Just wondering:On horses running 10 lengths faster than 10 years ago at 10 furlongs per TG figs (I assume this is correct) , does anybody have any info on how much faster humans have gotten (say, at a mile) in the last ten years? Is the speed increase in humans taking into account the differences (# of feet per length,etc.)comparable to horses? Asfufh

[HP]

Asfufh,

Here is a link about the progression of world records at 100 meters (there was some confusion, for me anyway, between these records and those for 100 YARDS).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Record_progression_100_m_men

Looks like they have knocked off eight tenths of a second since 1912. So the World\'s Fastest Humans have gotten about 10% faster.

HP

[OPM]

I don\'t think 100m is a good criteria for thoroughbreds maybe quarter horses.  I would also look at 200m, 400m and probably the mile is the best comparison for horses.

[TGJB]

In \"Are Racehorses Improving, Part 2\", which can be found in the archives here , I went into a lot of this, and mentioned that the mile record for humans has improved almost 2% since 1982, when we began making figures. If you use 1:40 for an equine mile it\'s one hundred seconds, making the equivalent 2% come out to two seconds, which by memory is about 8 points (I\'m too lazy to look it up). The mile record for humans had been improving at a much faster rate over the previous 50 years or so, as well.

If anyone is seriously interested in this subject I strongly recommend they read all 3 articles in the archives.

[HP]

I agree with you OPM.  I would think there was some exponential time/distance relationship, and now I will quickly drop out of this as I don\'t really know what I\'m talking about.  Others with more computer and search engine talent could probably find whatever they felt they needed regarding other distance records.  I do remember watching the original World\'s Fastest Human, Bob Hayes.  My talents lie elsewhere.  HP

[Silver Charm]

The change in Racing Surfaces for Humans, over the years, is a lot less dramatic than the change in Racing Surfaces for Horses. And for the Horses that kind of dramatic change might be not only be year-to-year and day-to-day but Race-to-Race. (See Chilukki Day)

The impact of wind in Track causes the time to be thrown out