Analysis of the Analysis

[Silver Charm]

Well it certainly wasn\'t Great, but it wasn\'t that bad either. This is a real tough day to look smart and an easy one to look bad. Yesterday reminded me of the BC at Churchill one year where all kinds of wierd stuff happened. Starting with Sheikh Albadou in the Sprint (Opening Verse, Miss Alleged,Arazi).

I thought the weather angle was overplayed,as I stated in my post Saturday morning. But it is not uncommon for there to be an 85 degree day in Dallas this time of year and that kind of heat will roast most of em. Trying to give selections, project weather, track conditons along with bias 3 days in advance is not exactly a small task.

I also thought there was a little too much, see how certain trainers are doing, or who is handling the heat or the ship and then adjust. Ask me now and I can probably give you some pretty good answers on who to bet. Just find somewhere to get down. Even on days where its bad Thorograph is still good. And thats saying something. Like I said earlier it gave me Singletary and I fumbled on the one yard line. Whose fault was that??

Something for the BC people to think about. I\'m all for moving this event around because it helps keep the interest level up. In the last 10 years we have been to Canada, Chicago and now Texas. But when 3 of your 8 events are grass races it needs to be someplace where the Euro\'s are comfortable. This place clearly wasn\'t. Heck they barely even tried any of the dirt races, something they have been doing more and more of and in some years almost won the Classic.

Years ago when they put a one mile race in people thought it was a misfit. Now its almost the only race the American Breeders have anything suitable for. The Turf field keeps getting smaller and smaller while the Mile is a consistent overfill.

I thought the Media did a good job considering what little they had to work with.

My Awards:

Eclipse Trainer: Pletcher-a star is born

Eclipse Owner: Ken Ramsey-he made need that purse money soon to cover his bets from yesterday.

Comeback Trainer of the Year: D Wayne Lukas-Darth Vader has become Moses.

HOY: Ghostzapper-maybe since Stronach also stands the sire, he brings the horse back for another year. By retiring him now he could effectively cannibalize his own Stallion (Awesome Again-raise the fee Frank). Hold off another year be good to racing (the fastest horse ever) and maybe then its Darth Vadar becomes Moses II.

[Frost King]

Bought the analysis, for the sake of buying to see what the experts liked, well it was not worth the paper it was printed on. Hit the the Mile exacta for $10, by putting the Euro\'s underneath, with the photo from from Santa Anita on top. Better Talk Know was live, because Motion\'s horses were running great. The juvenile filly had all kinds of trouble and ran 4th, the FM Turf he finished 2nd, so in the Turf he was an auto play. Don\'t kneed know damn sheets to tell me these things. Had a pretty good day!

[jimbo66]

Somewhere in the middle of the last two posts.  

Silver Charm, the analysis was bad.  There is no way around that.  It was a tough card, but the fact is that when I look in the redboard room, every single bet suggested by the analysis was a loser.  By any definition, it was bad.

But it was worth the paper it was printed on!!

The seminar, which is a different product than the analysis, was interesting, but also no help to handicap with (in hindsight).  Yes, Singletary was \"usable\" based on T-Graph figures (and Beyer too for that matter), but he was mentioned as having being hurt by the post and Jerry was \"happy\" to see the change to Valdivia.  Well, Flores got back on, and he got a good trip.  

It was definitely a bad day for Thorograph users.  But like I said in my post yesterday, it was probably a bad day for a lot of bettors.  Five favorites, 2 illogical longshots and one plausible longshot doesn\'t often equal a good day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

my key race was Afleet Alex in the Juvenile. He broke poorly and was hard used to get a position for the drive. I\'m sure he scored out very well on T-Graph. Kudos to the winner. I\'m not sure of Alex\'s ability to go further, but I bet he beats the winner at 8.5 marks next time.

[JEB]

Well, it is hard to be critical. When a horse like Wilko (poor figures, most established pattern, etc.) comes bounding home, it just reminds me how difficult the Breeders Cup really is. I did not purchase the analysis but using the seminar, i believed that i had several longshots that would be competitive. Unfortunately, it did not work out. Two races in a row I liked my chance at the top of the stretch (gold storm and special ring), only to be swallowed up by the field. Thorograph helps me be contrarian to the public and has helped with a couple of big scores. How different was the analysis from the seminar, i did not get a chance to see it.

Thanks



Post Edited (11-01-04 10:47)

[Silver Charm]

Look at the Tri\'s and Supers. You do not see payouts like this on normal days.

I know the field size and pool size is a big factor, but this happens in almost half the races, or more, every year. Its the unpredictability of it all.

If someone wants to be given two or three winners every year then buy a product that picks Ouiji Boards and Sweet Catomines every race. Or better yet one that picks 6 horses in every race then claims, \"We had it\".

[jimbo66]

Silver Charm,

Your argument suggests that NO product should be bought.  Which might be true on Breeders Cup day.  maybe it is just too hard and unpredictable.

But the hard facts are that Thorograph/Jerry were NOT close on any race.  I know Oiuja Board got a great trip, which was unexpected, and he had the others behind her, but zero winners for the day is zero winners for the day.

I read somewhere else that Ragozin actually had a good day, which I am surprised to hear.  I have not used the product, but I assumed a methodology which precluded a lot of \"chalk\".

[Silver Charm]

I bought the numbers and made my own judgements, which didn\'t work out so good either.

As you said zero winners is zero winners.

[miff]

Forgetting the analysis which is opinion,I\'m a long time TG user and had a decent day in several races especially the Classic.The fastest horse(by far) won and the three that came underneath him figured also, IMO.

I tossed Birdstone, Azeri and the overrated/overhyped Funny Cide and caught a decent ticket.Also the early double of Ashado and Sweet Catomine was a decent start for me.

Singletary I lost in exotics and I was right there in the remaining races.

The analysis had a bad day but the data provided in the sheets was enough to win by my interpretation.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Glad you had a good day.  

But if you did, you did it on your own handicapping, not on the seminar or the analysis.

Ashado/Sweet Catomine daily double of $19.00 was not the result of your Thorograph experience.  The two favorites together in what was a winning bet, but a bet that anybody who bought a program would see.  And 19.00 for picking two Breeders CUp races in a row is a ridiculously bad price.  Good luck trying to hit enough of those to win.  Ghostzapper was a standout, but also turned out to be only a $7.00 horse.

Some of the seminar and analysis\'s strongest opinions turned out be very bad.  Speightstown being over the top and not fast enough, Sweet Catomine being a great favorite to bet against, and Oiuja Board also being a \"bet against\".  

Yes, Ashado had nice figures, but was 2-1 and with Storm Flag Flying (with mediocre figures) running 2nd, it wasn\'t a race that was a profit maker, using T-Graph.  Sorry.

[HP]

Ouija Board was ABSOLUTELY a bet against in that race at the price.  There were quite a few horses in the race that were as fast or a little faster and OBoard had gate problems, the ship and the \"Arc Bounce\" issue to boot.  How much money are you planning to make on Ouija Board at 8/5?  You want to criticize the analysis, fine, but really, criticizing them for recommending against Ouija Board is ridiculous.  HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

If you are directing your post at me, it is misplaced.  

Two separate facts.  First, the analysis and seminar didn\'t \"cash\" for the day.  That is factual.

Second, I agree with you on Oiuja Board and she wasn\'t 8-5, she was 4-5.  I didn\'t buy the analysis and handicapped the races myself (but did listen to the seminar).  I made a significant win bet on Wonder Again, assuming Prado would be smart enough to use the horse\'s tactical speed in a paceless race.  I used Film Maker and Wonder Again on top in tri\'s and superfecttas and pick-4\'s.  As a matter of fact, if either beats Oiuja Board, I hit the pick 4 on my 2-all-all-Ghostzapper ticket.  It paid 47k with 4-5 Oiuja Board.  

If the race happened again tomorrow, I would bet against Oiuja Board again.  

But the \"bottom line\" for T-Graph and Jerry is that Saturday was a losing day.  That is not deniable.  

No badmouthing from me against the analysis or the seminar, but Saturday worked out to be a tough day.

[TGJB]

I don\'t disagree with any of that-- if you stick your neck out, sometimes it\'s coming off.

I\'m with you on the FM Turf trips-- if someone told you before the race that one of OB and WA would be in those two spots, what would you have bet they would have been reversed? Don\'t know if it made any difference, but no idea why Prado took back.

[miff]

Jim,

I do not use the analysis, but I read it and agree or disagree, I always stick to my guns.I don\'t know how you bet but I thought the price on GZ($7.00) was stealing and used him only on top in the tri and super. I quess you are shooting for bombs only.Good luck, that\'s a tough road, buddy.

[Silver Charm]

>if you stick your neck out, sometimes it\'s coming off.

Are you Robespierre???