Analysis of the Analysis

[HP]

Jimbo,

First you wrote

\"Some of the seminar and analysis\'s strongest opinions turned out be very bad. Speightstown being over the top and not fast enough, Sweet Catomine being a great favorite to bet against, and Oiuja Board also being a \"bet against\".\"

Now you write,

\"If the race happened again tomorrow, I would bet against Oiuja Board again.\"

So in this race, correct me if I\'m wrong, YOU AGREED with the analysis (yes I know you didn\'t buy it -- but you came to the same conclusion) and you BET AGAINST Ouija Board.  You independently came to the same conclusion as TGJB, how can you now criticize TGJB for trying to beat her and get a price?  If you have gripes with the analysis, it CAN\'T BE with this race, since you yourself BET AGAINST Ouija Board just like TGJB!  Jerry made a good call here, but sometimes you lose.  I don\'t mind losing to 4/5 shots!  

Then you write,

\"But the \"bottom line\" for T-Graph and Jerry is that Saturday was a losing day.\"

Now this may be true, but it has NOTHING to do with what the analysis said about Ouija Board, which you AGREED with and bet accordingly.

Interestingly enough, I keyed Wonder Again on top once I saw the turf was yielding (just like I threw out both Soaring Softly and Special Ring) and for my incredible judgement I collected nothing.

HP

[jbelfior]

TGJB--

Not sure why either. The sheets pointed out , in my interp., FILM MAKER and WONDER AGAIN on yielding.

FILM MAKER had a terrific # in last, drew inside, had Johnny V. and was tremendous value. WA had one off race in an otherwise strong turf pattern. Again, terrific value at 10-1 with preferred conditions.

So I box them up and lose...no one to blame...that\'s the game. I would make the same bet tomorrow under the same conditions. Too bad Jamie Spencer wasn\'t on OB...they would still be paying me.

PS: Not sure WA beats OB anyway., however Prado seems to be getting brain freeze on the big day.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tony]

What\'s this talk about OB? I think the race that was blown were there was value was the sprint and the read on STown.

[jimbo66]

HP,

let me change my grammer a bit.  I said \"some of the analysis and seminar\'s strongest opinions turned out to be bad\".  What I should have said was that \"the analysis and strongest opinions pointed out in the seminar resulted in all losing tickets\".

Whether I agree or disagree with Jerry is irrelevant (I am not a public handicapper or authority on the horses).  All I was stating, which I think JB agreed with up there on this thread, was that the products produced no winning tickets.  That doesn\'t mean there weren\'t good gambles that didn\'t pay off.  I am not \"killing\" any of his opinions.  I must have posted 20 times since Saturday night (horse withdrawl, since I stop betting them now until January), and I have not been critical.  Just pointing out facts.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I am not shooting for bombs.  I posted here 1 week ago that the best bet of the day was Ghostzapper.  I made my largest bet a week before the race at 5-1 in the futures on Ghostzapper.  So, I \"got out\" for the other losers.

My point was that betting $19 Doubles in Breeders Cup races is 1)  In general, a bet I can\'t make because of unpredictability in these races, making \"value\" an absolute requirement and 2)  If you did bet it, don\'t point it out as a \"Thorograph winner\" since anybody who bought the program had a good chance to have it.

Sorry if that sounds harsh, but they were two $6 horses and Sweet Catomine was being touted by every pro handicapper on all the websites and horse shows all week.  And she was 3rd fastest on the T-graph figures and figured to lose ground from the 10 hole.  Not a \"thorograph play\", as I am pretty sure that Jerry would agree.

[HP]

Jimbo,

It\'s not your grammar.  I give up.  HP

[Tony]

Jimbo,

You are right, Jerry was bad this year. I usually go with him because he comes up with at least one price. I key JB\'s picks and round out exotics myself. It worked in 2002 and 2003.

[NoCarolinaTony]

For what it was worth concerning a bet against Ouija Board here is some food for thought. The best value bet of the day turned out to be Ghostzapper and Oujia Board. If your playing pic 4\'s Single Ouija Board xALLxAllxGhostzapper (Cost $64 for $1 bet) You collect $49,000. I am the idiot. The figures clearly showed they would be standout. It\'s up to us the make the right bets.

I also think the track Bias killed anyone coming from behind  or on the outside on the dirt ( except Sweetcatomine ) who looks like a Super Star.

My only salvation was that I hit a Super the night before at Colonial Downs Harness Track for $3600 which gave me the cash to blow the next day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It was a very difficult card. I\'ve bet Breeders Cups since 1989 and have never before had a day when I failed to cash. I did not make many bets but I failed to cash. Even Ghostzapper had caution flags all over him and the pace battle I projected didn\'t develope. You\'re gonna have bad days in this game. TGJB doesn\'t need to be reminded of that. You may have have paid for some non stellar selections but the heart of the concern is the figures themselves and I thought they held up pretty well.

[miff]

Jim,

To a dogmatic sheet purist you make sense but in reality, no horse race can ever  be reduced to a figure, pattern or whatever else you think.

Some sharp horse people on the west coast told me that Sweet Catomine was a serious horse and that Canani told one of them that this HUGH FILLY was ready to \"explode\".That stuff went along with the figs, patterns factored in when I took $18.00 on the double.

Whats wrong with a $7.00 price on GZ(should have been 7-5 IMO) horse on top of a $1200.00 super?

[jimbo66]

Tony,

The Sprint had real value in the Superfecta.  First favorite over second favorite over two longshots = 40k.  (I think that was the price).

The problem for me was no Speightstown or Kela on my tickets.  

The Sprint was one of John Velasquez\'s two very good rides.  He didn\'t panic after the bad break and tucked in behind the cheap speed (Abbondanza).  He also gave Ashado a very nice trip from the rail.

For the Breeders Cup, I usually don\'t factor jockeys into my handicapping because usually all of them that get mounts on BC Day are good.  But this year proved an exception.  There were quite a few bad rides.  I am sure I missed some of them, but these were all pretty bad:

1.  Jamie Spencer on Powerscourt.  Worst ride in a big race since the Swain race.  

2.  Kerwin John on Island Fashion.  Impatient and 4 wide the whole way.  He was doing OK out west before this, but proved he is not ready for primetime yet.

3.  Jamie Spencer on Antonius Plus.  Plus 4 of his 5 mounts \"dwelt at the start\".  Coincidence?  I wonder how many times Angel Cordero had 4 of his mounts dwell at the start in the same day???

4.  Edgar Prado on Sense of Style and moreso on Wonder Again.  It pains me to say this, since I love Prado, but he rode bad in both races.  Wonder Again figured to sit 3rd or 4th at worst, with her tactical speed, even with the wide post.  If you would have told me they were going to go 52.3 to the half and Prado would be 15 lengths off of it, I would never have believed it.  Sense of Style may have been \"over the top\" anyway, but she is another with tactical speed that figured to sit closer to the lead and he got her out 2nd to last also.

[HP]

Tony,

Ouija Board\'s best race (on TG) was a 3 and change last out in the Arc.  Wonder Again (paired 1\'s!) and Film Maker both had better numbers going in.  How can you say Ouija Board was a \"standout\" if she wasn\'t the fastest horse going in?  

As for your track bias comment, the results tell a different story.  Kela rallied from out of it to come second in the sprint and Wilco came from off the pace to win the Juvenile, and Wilco was also on the OUTSIDE.  

Your hindsight is excellent though...

HP

[jimbo66]

NC Tony,

Which \"figures\" showed Oiuja Board as a standout?  Her timeform ratings?

NOT her T-Graph figures.

GZ, yep.  Fastest horse ever on T-Graph figures.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Good information on Sweet Catomine.  And I am happy for you that you hit the double, really.

I am definitely NOT a \"dogmatic sheet purist\".  I have many threads on the past few months where I tried to argue traditional handicapping angles like pace, distance and class versus \"T-Graph numbers\".

Nothing wrong with 5-2 on Ghostzapper and DEFINITELY nothing wrong with the 1200 Superfecta.  If I didn\'t have the futures bet at 5-1, I would have taken 5-2.  And I am kicking myself a little bit for not betting the exotics, because it really came in pretty formful.  Having not cashed a ticket all day though prior to the race, and not feeling confident because of it, I didn\'t \"push the issue\".  As usual, bad decision.  The super was definitely great value.  Although I might have tried to beat Pleasantly Perfect based on the regression since Dubai.  Tough to say in hindsight.

[Tony]

Jimbo,

Suprised you did not use Kela off two negative threes, a layoff, Mitchell and Bailey?