Sleeping with the enemy

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Just some #\'s from the combatants:

Blue Burner: Both have Fl Derby as 4pt top TG-Wood a slight move back, Rag a new 2pt top.

Buddha: TG 3pt bounce in Wood, Rag virtually a pair up.

Came Home: Rag hit 2yo top in 3yo debut, TG a 4pt top. Both lines regressing, Rag 5.75, TG 3.75 since.

Castle: nada

Danthe: TG paired up 6\'s this year before retreating in SA D, Rag hit 2yo top regressed 3.5 and another 6+ in the SA D.

Easy Grades: Rag hopelessly slow with a 7 top moved back 2pts, TG paired up 3.25\'s

Essence: TG 6.25 x 2 as 2yo UAE guess 4.5, Rag 9.75 debut top, UAE guess 7

Harlan: Both have an 0-2-X going into CD. TG FL D 3pts faster

Itsallin: Both had return tops in La D, Rag 3pts slower, both regressed in Arky

J\'burg: Rag 5.25 in BC, TG 6.25 How did that happen LOL

Lusty: Rag hoplessly slow with a return top to 9.5 in SA D vs TG a new 3pt top within Medaglias zipcode

Medaglia: TG paired up 2.5 top in Wood vs big 5pt top in Rags to a 1

Ocean: Rag has turf race as top vs TG pairing last two but slooooow.

Perfect: TG never gone back, Battaglia 5.75pts faster than Rag. Spiral TG 2.5 top, Rag 3.5. Rag 3pts slower

Private: TG a 4pt top in Arky off SW stks, Rag a 6pt top thru his 2yo top of 10.5 in Arky

Proud: TG 1.75 top in Lex thru 2yo best, Rag 2.75 for same. Rag SA D fig 6pts slower

Request: Rag second return to his 4.75 top in Spiral, TG 3 straight 2.5\'s

Saarland: TG never gone back pairing 3yo efforts, Rag 3pt bounce in Remsen to 11.25 TG a 1.5 move forward to 7.5. Rag 3.5 top in Wood to a 1.75 TG 1.5 slower.

War Emblem: TG paired 7.25pt top from FG 8.25 2yo top, Rag hit 2yo top in initial SPT go, IL Derby a 5.5 top

Wild: RAG a .25 top in Arky, TG paired his top, both slooow

Ragozin has the west coast figs incredibly slow, while TG has them within shouting distance.

Four fastest Rag horses:
Madaglia 1.0
Saarland 1.75
Blue Burner 2.0
Buddha 2.25
Three horses in the 3+ range

Four fastest TG horses:
Came Home \"0\"
Harlans Holiday \"0.50\"
Perfect Drift \"0.50\"
Buddha \"0.75\"
Five horses in the 1-2+ range

Good luck whoever you choose. Remember it\'s only a single horse race. If you guys clip it, I understand.

bdhsheets

[TGJB]

The discrepancy on Johannesburg came about because Ragozin had the track speed for BC day flat (He used an average). If you want to find details about this, I posted at length following the BC here, precipitating quite a furor (intentionally). Look in the archives.
http://www.thorograph.com/Ask/archives

Ragozin has the 4 fastest horses coming out of the Wood? Boy, that\'s some coincidence.

[hracingply]

was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes purse and take a stand for once.

[TGJB]

Bob wrote:
>
> was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly
> everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is
> such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes
> purse and take a stand for once.
>
>

TG--I counted 10 to use in exotics, including his top pick (?), and a separate \"key horse for an exotic play\". And that doesn\'t count the 3 \"for extreme spread players.\" Given the odds of all the horses involved, the only real stand he took was against Came Home.

I would love any ragozin player to post in advance what results constitute a win for this analysis, or a loss. Seriously.

[TGJB]

TGJB wrote:
>
> Bob wrote:
> >
> > was just at the other board and as usual he is using mostly
> > everything lightly in the exotics, this guy kills me he is
> > such a hedger, wish he would take his balls out of his wifes
> > purse and take a stand for once.
> >
> >
>
> TG--I counted 10 to use in exotics, including his top pick
> (?), and a separate \"key horse for an exotic play\". And that
> doesn\'t count the 3 \"for extreme spread players.\" Given the
> odds of all the horses involved, the only real stand he took
> was against Came Home.
>
> I would love any ragozin player to post in advance what
> results constitute a win for this analysis, or a loss.
> Seriously.
>
>

And another thing, just so that I\'m on the record in advance. If the Wood horses run bad, that confirms the Rag Wood # because they bounced. If they run well it also confirms the #. And most importantly, those figures will be hugely important both in reading their patterns going forward, and in making figures for the derby and 3yo stakes for the rest of the year.

[NotAnOpenForum]

So Jerry, you are saying that the Ragozin guys are going to claim the numbers were good regardless of the outcome.

Aren\'t you really just saying you are right, regardless of the outcome?

I do pity you.

[Tim B.]

I use the Rags and have to admit that I concur with some of the above-mentioned criticism.  I see no point in giving analysis that includes playing 80% of the horses at least somewhere in exotics, which Friedman does.

Admittedly I had a very tough time narrowing this field down, but ended up with Perfect Drift and Saarland as my top choices.  I think I would respect the \"expert\'s\" opinions on these big races a bit more if they just said to hit the ALL button for 3rd and 4th.  At least then I\'d know they were as lost as I was.  Sure, I coulda had the exacta if it came War Emblem-Perfect Drift, but I wouldn\'t have the gall to say that I \"liked\" the winner.  

It\'s just like the 1996 Derby....Editor\'s Note and Grindstone were a coupled entry and I bet em because of Editor\'s Note.  I didn\'t like Grindstone even a little bit, but he got the money and thus I did too.  I don\'t go around bragging that I had the winner, beacuse I didn\'t.

[HP]

In fairness to Friedman, his \'strongest group\' was four horses. Plenty of people, myself included, went deeper and used more horses in the \'under\' spots in tris to reel in the payday.

Of course, it will be great over the next few weeks to hear about how great those Beyers (dynamite) are. Heh. HP

[TGJB]

The syndicate I put together hit the tri and the super, I cashed my future book bet and had 75% of the money I bet to win on the race on War Emblem. save the pity for a time I need it.
You should check out the seminar in ROTW.

[NotAnOpenForum]

I don\'t pity you for cashing tickets. I pity you for your twisted view of the world.

Nice after-the-fact score.

[TGJB]

It came from someone who had got off the phone seconds before with Baffert. And it obviously made no difference in my play. They took hold of him, but he fell into the lead anyway.

[TGJB]

Check out the seminar. It\'s free.

[NotAnOpenForum]

Hey I checked out the seminar. Not bad, you only had to go eight deep to hit the tri.

Don\'t you find it just a bit dishonest for someone to make Perfect Drift their top value play, tell us War Emblem won\'t be on the lead, then turn around and bet 75% of their win money on that very horse?

I hope the syndicate was made up of the same guys that own Rising Graph - maybe they can get a little of their money back.

[Michael D.]

Hey Mr. NotAnOpenForum, let me introduce you to the truth. Using the Thorograph analysis, you would definitely have used Perfect Drift, Saarland, Request for Parole, War Emblem, and Medaglia d\'Oro. To go a bit deeper you would used Proud Citizen, and tossed Blue Burner and Essence because of the speed favoring strip. That makes six horses, five of those ran 1-5. Furthermore, you definitely would have tossed Came Home, Harlan, and Johannesburg, three horses that took good money....... Given it was the most difficult betting Derby in years, what more were you looking for ?

[MO]

Horse players reserve the right to make last minute decisions based on post parade and tote board inspection.

While I posted that the bet was $200 to win on Came Home, in actuality I bet it this way:

$100 to win on Came Home
$10 ex Johan over Came Home
$10 ex Saarland over Came Home.
$50 win Perfect Drift
$30 win War Emblem

Bet $200 return $645

However, unlike most \"Tip sheet sellers\" I will not take credit for picking the winner as my top choice was 6th.

Other observations:

My observation of Saarland in the Wood was DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE.

Perfect Drift was a ridiculous underlay as was Saarland (both were 1-2 in the doubles payoffs.
MO