Sleeping with the enemy

[TGJB]

The play I put together, strictly for tris and supers, was a 7 horse box(PD, S, RFP, WE, MDO, PC, BB), pressing the first 5. A $1700 play gave us $1 on the super, $2 on the tri. For me the whole play was(as I said in the seminar)a bet against HH, CH and J. If you are spreading out in exotics about the only other way you could conceivably play the race off our seminar was to key PD, in which case you get to the same result cheaper. The play I put up in the analysis has to be smaller- I can\'t assume everyone can make $1700 plays. I gave them the 5 horse box and a win bet on PD. 4 of the 5 ran 1-3-4-5. I could conceivably have added a win bet on WE- I bet him pretty good myself, partly because I was live for a ton in futures with PD, HH, and RFP, along with 10 others for lesser amounts(including WE)- but again, I didn\'t want to spread small players out too thin.

[TGJB]

You\'re the best, Jim. And I have no idea why you think the horse not being on the lead would keep someone from betting him.

[NotAnOpenForum]

Well Jer, as Mike D likes to keep pointing out, speed was very good yesterday. Telling everyone that War Emblem wasn\'t going to be on the lead does make a big difference. Would War Emblem have won if he hadn\'t been on the lead? Probably? Maybe Perfect Drift could have outkicked him off the pace? Whoo knows?

Just so you realize that he didn\'t inherit the lead like you tried to rationalize. He had it per Baffert\'s instructions, contrary to you and your birdie\'s advice. Again, nice after the fact win, for you and your \"sydicate\". I kind of doubt you\'d be as gracious if I posted a similar score.

[kev]

See i just wrote it on the other topic.


I DON\'T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT YOU HIT THE RACE AFTER IT\'S OVER WITH.

Enough of this crap. Don\'t want to hear it from you either Jerry. Sounds like Robes boxing and using 8 horses. or more maybe for him.

[NotAnOpenForum]

Hey Mike D, out of curiosity, if you could throw out so many horses because of a speed favoring track, why wouldn\'t you throw out Perfect Drift? He\'s a big-time closer that was only close to the pace because Eddie D gave a heady ride.

PS I didn\'t lose on the Derby, but didn\'t make much either. I lost my win and tri plays, but did make a nice score on the only head-to-head matchup I played (Blue Burner over Easy Grades) on wsex.com.

[NotAnOpenForum]

I agree kevin, it\'s poor form.

[Michael D.]

most of baffert\'s comments I have seen this morning suggest that he did not want Espinosa to use the horse out of the gate. considering that the horse had run relatively moderate halfs in his last two victories, I think a lot of people took it to mean the horse would not be clear on the lead. I would bet that Baffert himself would say he was surprised that his horse was free on the lead. It doesn\'t look like JB was passing on BS info. But I do think that the front running, unhindered trip played some role in the outcome.

[Michael D.]

Sorry mate (don\'t know your name), but Eddy D strangled the heck out of the horse (his own words). The horse was placed where he was because of the natural speed he showed in EVERY SINGLE RACE HE HAS EVER RACED IN. Take a look at his lines. He\'s no speedball, but has always been on or close to (within two lengths) 46 halfs. Ask me why I didn\'t throw out Saarland because of the speed favoring track......actually please don\'t, I have no answer.

[NotAnOpenForum]

Mike D, are we talking about the same horse? Showed natural speed in every race? Whew! He hasn\'t made the lead or even been in the top 2 since he broke his maiden 5 races before the Derby.

He may not be Silky Sullivan, but Perfect Drift is a closer. In his last two races he was never better than 5th through the first 3 points of call. His last two comment lines coming into the Derby are, \"Reserved,\" and \"Eased back.\" He has tactical speed, but to call him a speed horse and say he showed that in every single race he has raced? Nah, I don\'t think so - made me smile though.

[Michael D.]

OK, let me explain this in the simplest terms possible. If the comments lines in Perfect Drift\'s last two races where \"reserved\" and \"eased back\", and he still arrived at the half in 46.4 and 46.4, the horse obviously has some natural speed. I have called Perfect a horse with natural speed, you have referred to the horse as a big time closer. Now again, Mr. N.A.O. Forum, who is correct here? A horse who gets to the half in 46.4 and 46.4 while getting the comments \"reserved\" and \"eased back\": is this horse a horse with natural speed, or is this horse a big time closer?? The horse ran a 45.4 half in his first lifetime start!!!!
Come on, would you please get serious with some of these comments. At first I found your anti-TG bias a bit amusing. Now, since you have called a horse who never raced more than 2.5 lengths (at the half) off the pace in his first six lifetime starts a \"big time closer\", and you were proven completely wrong in the derby, it is time to start getting to the truth. Again, I will provide another example, since you do not seem all that sharp. In Perfect Drift\'s third race he arrived at the half in about 45.3, while being restrained, over a dull surface. Again, now please read this slowly my sharp friend. IN PERFECT DRIFT\'S THIRD RACE HE ARRIVED AT THE HALF IN ABOUT 45.3, WHILE BEING RESTRAINED, OVER A DULL SURFACE. So very, very, very obvious. This is a horse who is better characterized as a horse with some natural speed, than a big time closer. Period. Please, I beg you to respond, and explain to me how a horse who ran to the half in 45.3, while being restrained, over a dull surface, does not have natural speed. Sure, at one point they may do things different in the morning, and force the horse to rate better, but as of now my friend, you are completely wrong.

[Michael D.]

You are an amusing person to argue with... Just for my info, are you involved with the Rags organization, or just a guy who hates TG? Personally, I have never seen or spoken to a member of either organization, but have used both sheets, and have been using the TG sheets more often recently.

[HP]

I\'m glad you did so well. What\'s the matter, you can\'t dig up your own $1,700? What\'s the lackey cut? I\'m spending way too much time on this. I have responsibilities.

You know I would never listen to the seminar before the race. I\'m not one of these \'pick me a winner\' types. I\'m not one of these \'who do you like Jerry?\' weiners calling in on Derby week. I\'ve been there. I dig my own graves. If I won that way I\'d have to tear up the ticket.

I didn\'t use HH, CHome or J either. I didn\'t like WEmb, PCitizen or M\'D. The winner took a big jump to pair the 1\'s and I didn\'t like it. To hell with this sheet crap. I transcend these numbers with my own special gifts. You\'ve got your nerve playing those horses. Luck! That\'s all. Who are you kidding with that Proud Citizen? Probably somebody\'s birthday and a shoe size.

I liked two horses, Saarland and Perfect Drift. I used a few others. My bankroll is still phat, don\'t worry. But still, in the Big Race, my ass was in the wind. I played most of my money on PDrift to win and in exs and a little tri. I\'m so dumb I\'d do it again! If I knew you would rack $50K ahead of time I\'d still do it again. I\'ll show you a syndicate. I DON\'T NEED NO STINKIN\' SYNDICATE! I\'m much bigger than that. --HP

[NotAnOpenForum]

Ok Mike D, I can see I\'m going to have to educate you and this will require a bit a of work. Since you seem an honest sort, I\'m willing to put in the extra work. So, let\'s get started.

First, let me say I think the root of your misconception stems from your ignorance of the terms closer and speed-horse. A speed horse goes to the front or is in the top 2 or 3 in the early stages of the race. PD has not had the lead (or been in the top 2) in the early stages of a race since he broke his maiden.

A closer comes from off the early pace and passes more than a few horses down the stretch (Perfect Drift passed 5 horses in each of his last 2 races).

I think if you took a poll on this board or any other, the overwhelming majority would classify Perfect Drift as a closer and not a speed horse. Again, I don\'t classify him as a Strike the Gold kind of closer, but his running style is to come from off the pace. He is NOT a speed horse. But hey, I could be wrong - I certainly was about Proud Citizen.

No, I\'m not, nor have I ever been associated with the Ragozin organization. I have never even met anyone from their office. I don\'t hate TG and never bad-mouth their product at the track. However, I am a Ragozin fan and get a little tired of JB\'s constant attack on Ragozin and his product. I ask you, do you ever see Len Ragozin attacking JB or his product on this or any other board? Does he ever complain about the intellectual property JB stole when he made his knock-off product? The answer to both is a resounding N-O.

[Michael D.]

My my how quickly you separate yourself from your original comments.... Perfect Drift was once a big time closer, now that you realize you are wrong, you no longer want to classify him as a big time closer. And please take any poll any time you want, ask any racing fan ever to watch a race.. go ahead ask, is it better to classify Perfect Drift as a \"big time closer\" or a \"horse with some natural speed\" ?? Please my friend, take the poll. You are soooooooo wrong.... And why no response to my point that Perfect Drift ran a 45.3 half in his third lifetime start, under restraint, over a dull surface.... you don\'t like the facts do you........... anyway, I still did not cash in the Derby, I was wrong, I thought Perfect Drift would show some good speed and get 47 for the half, but would run down three or four horses who raced on a 45.4 or 46 pace, getting a big jump on the real \"big time closers\". The fast pace just never showed up. So I will let you get the last word (hopefully with results from your poll) and make this my last post on the subject. Let\'s compare notes before the Preakness, shall we.......................

[Michael D.]

Just one more thing before we all get your brilliant reply. From the beginning of this discussion, I have said that Perfect Drift was \"not a speedball\", but a \"horse with natural speed\", Your point was that Perfect Drift was a \"big Time closer\". Can\'t wait for the results to this poll.......