Road to the Derby

[BitPlayer]

Aqueduct
2/1/20
Race 8
#  Odds
1   43.6
2   5.2
3   5.5
4   20.1
5   1.4
6   6.2
7   16.6
8   3.8

[BitPlayer]

Gulfstream
2/1/20
Holy Bull
#  Odds
1   2.6
2   24.8
3   1.1
4   3.8
5   63.7
6   5.5
7   19.2

[johnnym]

Impressed by the winner.

[jbelfior]

Question to the board....if you owned Tiz the Law, would you stick with Manny?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

Santa Anita
2/1/20
Bob Lewis
#  Odds
1   11.6
2   0.7
3   4.7
4   15.8
5   2.7
6   54.2

[dcbred1]

I asked one of the owners that question a while ago. The answer is yes.

[FrankD.]

Joe,

Watching the Gulf track feed and I kid you not!!!Ron Nicoletti actually said
“A flawless ride by Manny Franco” and they pay him for those comments.....

I’m jock shopping if it’s my horse.

Good Luck,

FD

[belmont3]

Frank,

AS you know I am close to Sackatoga partner Margaret Phillips. Shortly after the Champagne win, her husband Attorney Bruce Phillips (a guy who never had a bad day) passed from a sudden heart attack at age 60.

I have known Bruce and Margaret for over 35 years (Margaret sold my EF Hutton office our 1st phone system ---AT&T----around 1980. Every year Margaret sponsored a party at the Spa to celebrate Bruce\'s birthday. 50 or more N.E. Pennsylvanians would attend.

I cannot tell you the Sadness and the Joy I feel for Margaret today.

She sent me a paddock photo pre-race and, being totally unbiased, Tiz looked the part. A handful in the barn who attacks everyone and everything. But he sure can run.

Hoping Tiz stays healthy and fit.

Sure am interested in the TG # he ran today.

BTW,
Fairmount met Jack Knowlton- the GP of Sackatoga. But that is a story for him to tell....It\'s a good one. LOL

[johnnym]

This week we’re in Tampa for the G3 Sam F Davis over a 1 1/16

Contenders

#1) Ran a pair of 8s then jumped up 6 pts to a 2 trainer is 17% new top and 35% pair after jump ups by at least a pt. Trainer wins at 23% with Rosario who should know this horse pretty good by now.Gets a pt in weight from the favorite. Will there be enough pace and is the distance a bit short today?

#2) Three races three moves forward last race puts him at a 2.25
Trainer is 16% new top and 31% to pair after new top by a pt.
Put in a bullet work on the turf expecting him closer to the pace.
Not crazy about jock choice here Biancone does pretty good with 3 year old this time of year. This one gets a pt in weight as well

#4) Fastest horse in the race running a -2 then regressed to a 3
Trainer stats shows he is not very good with this pattern and it’s a case to much to early as 2 year olds running -# it’s very hard for them to come back to that his first try around two turns and the high weight of the race..

Playing the 2 to win figure he is a bit more sharp and like the long workouts
Then a ex Box 1/2
GL

[richiebee]

The Tampa Bay \"Road to the Derby\" has not produced many Derby winners, but the
Tampa Bay Derby has produced Tapwrit (Belmont winner) and two Belmont runner
ups, Tacitus (also third in the Derby) and Destin. (Destin\'s loss in the
Belmont was especially painful for many T-Generates and Rag Men).

The Tampa Bay Derby winner who went on to capture the Roses was Street Sense in
2007.In this year\'s Sammy Davis, we have a son of Street Sense, Albert Park,
who looks interesting to me, even though he is arguably fourth or fifth fastest
in the race, has never won on dirt and has never raced around two turns. So
what is there to like?

1) 15-1 ML.

2) Trainer Stidham batting .300 at TBD, in the exacta with 50% of his starters.

3) Jockey Morales has good strike rate at current Tampa meet, overall, and has
good success when legged up by Stidham.

4) Bred for long (as Frankie Rainbow might say, check out the Tommy)but has run well in sprints.

5)Had a decent run first time over this track with blinkers added.

6) For those who pay attention to such things, a favorable Thoro-Pattern.

7) 15-1 ML.

On a day where weather will prevent prepping for the TG Open, there are some
bettable races late in the AQ card, some decent stakes at Tampa and an
intriguing leaderboard out west in the ATT at Pebble Beach/Spyglass, so a rare
visit to Living Room Downs seems to be in order.

[FrankD.]

Could this be the (IM) Poster formerly known as Richie 🐝?

Off the bench and that’s the best you can do at Tampa? 😎



Tampa Pick 5:

8th: It almost seems futile to play against Stormy! We all know or should that fillies and mares are as inconsistent as their 2 legged human twins..... She was nothing but a MONSTER last year, BUT off the bench and spotting weight, 0-3 at the distance and never having run over the Oldsmar course?                                     3,4,7

9th: A ton of early inside speed sets this one up for Motu or Blame Debbie, Comical will get bet but it’s not fast enough for the first 2.                                  4,7

10th: A super competitive heat and a chance for a price, the kind of race you never should bet the favorite, even you can’t knock him like CC @ 5/2.
March to the Arch is super consistent, Tyler G certainly knows how to ride a rail trip and is a must use as the 2nd choice. WTF is Saffie Joseph doing in this spot, note his Tampa record this meet!                                                                                 1,3,5,8

11th: Independence Hall was OP, BO, shied from the whip in his last and bounced 5.75 points on TG off 60 days, has never been 2 turns, spots weight and will be 3/5. WTF do you do with a 2 yr old 2-neg?  BEAT ME......                                    1,2

12th: Bad race, why can’t all tracks use the Gulf blueprint for big days having the big race the last leg of the pick 4 &5 ? Anyone notice their handle on those days....
4 stakes then you have to bet garbage in the last leg. The 3 will be favored, is no faster than several and not as fast as a couple coming off a 6 month layoff. She probably wins by 10 and knocks me out of a good one..... ðŸ˜, Can’t let DAT HAPPEN 😱
                                                                                                            1,2,3,5,9,10

$144 play for $.50 press an extra ticket with Stormy for $48

[jbelfior]

Onboard with the Sam Davis. Would toss in the Navarro who will certainly be \"on the muscle\" today.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

I spent the late hours of this morning watching Hong Kong races and most people running around with white surgical masks on. Some truly eye popping payoffs. I even saw a 50/1 horse coming. More and more I suppose it is what american racing will look like in the future.

In the wee hours of this morning I chose to watch all the replays of the Pasco field ending up with #3 Albert Park as the value horse. This Michael Stidham trainee has not been under the radar until today. He won his first race as the favorite in a full field @ AP. From there to Presque Isle for a 100K again as the favorite he won in gutsy fashion with a wide trip. 2/2 on all-weather somehow he ends up in the G3 Cecille B. DeMille on turf @ DMR in a full field. The winner embarrassed the field in that heat yet Albert Park\'s 6th (if I saw clearly) was in a group and pretty much the same as second. Evenly and credible.

Subsequently, he\'s brought down to FL and Tampa, note he\'s been well spotted to date, attending the:44³ pace and finishing 2nd was again a confidence-inspiring performance. Upon close inspection as close as one can perform with semi glaze from an all night effort Albert Park does not seem to have the physique of a sprinter. He has some length and is a long-striding colt.

At that point, I refer back to the data to discover that his sire is Street Sense and that is good when considering a stretch out in distance. Furthermore, he was only really outrun in his DMR race. So via appearance added distance would not be a problem.

In considering the Sam Davis Stakes from a pace perspective it is clear to me that #6 Premier Star is a quick and fast colt if you want to be in front of him early you won\'t be around at the finish. He probably won\'t back up too too much either so a competitor needs to be close to catch him.

The slower pace a route race produces will help both #6 Premier Star (can he rate) and #3 Albert Hall. The favored $4 Independence Hall impressed me in each of his races and I expect him to win. Lastly I noticed that Albert Park is bred by Godolphin and maybe that explains his start on all weather and then turf prior to dirt in an effort to protect the young horse.

So it was a pleasant surprise when I finished documenting my thoughts on the race that I saw the same heat had attracted the interest of Richiebee and in fact a similar conclusion via different considerations. As WAPO would say confirmation.

My play w/b #3 Albert Hall under the top two favorites in exactas, a tri undert the top 2 and a super in fourth  under the top two with all in third.

[big18741]

I could see Premier Star moving forward a few here.
Sire and dam(all her wins at 2 turns) were both routers.

The 9th looks impossible.

Lucrezia first time long from the rail with time and Embossed turf to dirt/2nd Lasix from the outside are move up candidates I\'m using as well as the others mentioned.

[Tavasco]

In the 9th - It would stand to reason that trainer Asmussen has had enough time to get #3 Comical healthy and on track. The fact that he picks this spot instead of coming back in a G1 may suggest doubts.

For those able to divine the work tab we see a bullet best of 5 @ FG? and some workout times that look more like Arabians than thoroughbreds.

Or 3/1 c/b a gift if recovered and matured.