Travers - Postscript

[jimbo66]

JB (and Cozzene)

A couple of closing points on this race.  JB, please don\'t retrofit the result of the race into a T-Graph justification.  I saw your comment (after the race) about the distance not being a problem.   It is,was and always will be with Lionheart.  In none of his races this year, has he looked the part of a horse that wants 1 1/4 miles.  He was caught late in all his derby preps, albeit in fast races.  He ran on well over a sloppy track in the derby that carried speed, then ran his \"true\" distance races (IMO) in the Preakness and today in the Travers.  They couldn\'t have went slower in the race today early and still Purge and Lionheart backed up badly.  

The original point I tried to make is that I honestly think that the Analysis product specifically overlooks many handicapping angles that should be used in conjunction with the T-Graph figures themselves.  And I also wanted to encourage some intellectual debate from horseplayers about two parts of the \"T-Graph\" thesis that I have trouble with.  Those parts being that pace is meaningless (except for allowing the frontrunner to save ground) and also to a lesser extent that \"class\" is meaningless.  I can understand the \"class\" statement to a degree, but have great trouble with the \"pace\" part.  

In the end, my goal (and everybody else\'s probably) is to figure out how to use the T-Graph figures best to enhance my handicapping and betting results.  I tried the analysis product, in conjunction with the sheets themselves, so I could understand the logic that a T-Graph expert uses, but the analysis product doesn\'t work for me.  

I am well aware that picking one race right (The Travers) doesn\'t prove anything.  I only bothered with the posting because I thought it was an excellent race to refute some of the problems I have with using T-Graph figures.  I posted that the two fastest horses were not going to finish in the money and Birdstone (a slower horse) would win.  I explained the logic (\"traditional handicapping\" as musingly pointed out by Cozzene).

Now, that doesn\'t mean I am not convinced that T-Graph figures are helpful.  I wouldn\'t bother posting on this board if I thought it was useless.  But even the biggest of experts (and I don\'t mean that sarcastically JB), should be open to questions about their thesis and opinions.

thanks,

Jim

[Saddlecloth]

Birdstone still seems slow after the final time of 202 and change, I guess some credit has to be given for getting the job done.

[sabowen]

Duh! Jimbo is right. Trip handicapping is a useful tool in colllecting money- did anyone respond to my posting concerning the parallel to last year\'s Travers, NO.

Thank you jimbo66.  Your analysis was on the money (this is not a paid advertisement and I totally approve it).

[cozzene]

Gentlemen

My first experience at the racetrack was in 1973.  

Between 1973 and 1997 I read every book I could about betting on Thorobreds.

Unfortunately, I was also in the red every year.  Sometimes I made a big score, but usually I lost.  If Cozzene or one of his children were running I had a good day.  Tikkanen on BC day was one of my best hits of all time.

However every thing changed in 1998 I discovered speed figures.  I have not had a losing year since.

Pace as a indicator of energy expelled can\'t be.  It is impossible to quantify.  

Angles which angle?  It is easy after the race.  Very hard when you are forced to choose between angles before post.

Class; quantify it mathimatically.

Final time, ground loss, and weight are all objective.  They can all be quantified mathimatically.

The advantage of accurate speed figures is that over time the faster horses will finish ahead of the slower horses.  Betting the faster horses will over time show a profit.
Questions arise about betting strategies; about a year ago I asked some questions that I already knew the answers to; I wanted to see what the response was, suffice to say some people who post here really get it, they play tri\'s and super\'s where speed figures are most valuble and traditional methods most useless and leave the win position to the traditionalists.

If this helps great, if not thats OK.

Your Friend

Cozzene



Post Edited (08-29-04 08:50)

[jimbo66]

Cozzene,

What do you mean \"after the race\"?  We discussed the Travers well before the race, days before.  I am not \'redboarding\'.  You said \"Jimbo the \'tradional handicapper\', the fastest horse win the race, period.  Lionheart easily.

I said LH and Purge off the board, with Birdstone over The Cliff\'s Edge and Sir Shackleton.

Jimbo,

I would argue that \"class\" is an important factor and pace is a part of class. (notice my name lol)

I define \"class\" as all the intangible qualities of ability that do not show up in speed figures.

Two horses can run the exact same final time, but that does not mean they have the same amount of deterimination, courage, willingness, stamina/racing reserves, short burst acceleration, 1/4 or 1/2 mile speed, desire to compete, versatility, etc...

As you move up the ladder, not only are the horses faster, but they generally possess greater quantities of the above attributes.

That generally makes the races more demanding and competitive (pace being a part of that). Many horses run their fastest speed figures when those types of demands are not made of them. As horses move up the ladder, they are often exposed as not having enough of the intangible qualities required to duplicate the speed figures they earned at lower levels. Others reveal their surplus of those qualities and rise to the competition and run faster.

Sometimes, you can see class beforehand if you have decent visual skills and watch a lot of races.

I think it is silly to dismiss the quality of the field a figure was earned against.

Notice also, I am not saying to use the class designation. I am saying to actually look at the quality of the field and the competitiveness of the race.



Post Edited (08-29-04 17:42)

[TGJB]

Retrofit-- I said BEFORE the race that the two ML favorites were vulnerable, with one coming off a huge effort, and the other coming off a pair of negatives, both on 20 days rest. Alan also asked me how many 3yo\'s have thrown 3 negatives in a row, and I can\'t think of a whole lot. And that\'s independent of rest.

What I said after the race is that there is no reason to say FROM THIS RACE that LH can\'t get the distance, not just because of the above, but because he stopped before he went a mile. THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK HE WOULD NOT ALSO HAVE DONE SO IF THE RACE WAS 1 1/8th.

I also said BEFORE the race that anyone who had a strong opinion was nuts, EVEN IF THEY CASHED. No matter what the result, there was going to be somebody posting here about how they were right. If you get on line to cash after any race, you will meet a lot of people who know the horse won for the reasons they bet it. The difference (as HP would say), is I\'m right, and they\'re wrong.

I ended up having a pretty good day. We gave out a pick 4 as 3x1x2x3, but 2 of the 3 in the first race scratched. The next 3 races provided the pick 3 ($300) on a $12 play. I didn\'t play pick 3\'s or pick 4\'s, but I hit the ROTW tri pretty hard playing it just like I wrote it and picked it (NTL on top, throw out the bad ones, use ST extra). I also hit the Pomeroy/Birdstone double pretty hard (2x3, doubling up with Pomeroy-- fastest horse, concealed, good line off 1 point top). Several TG players I know who played exotics in the King\'s Bishop hit the race, some very hard, since the favorites were very beatable, and Pomeroy was pretty clear.

I used 3 in the Travers-- LH, Bird, Sir Shac. Boxed them lightly, but mostly just sat rooting against TCE and Purge. I have to say, I would love to know what Eddington looked like on Ragozin, and why those guys liked him-- on TG he was the slowest horse in the race, and given his lack of forward movement was hard to play for a jump.

>What I said after the race is that there is no reason to say FROM THIS RACE that LH can\'t get the distance, not just because of the above, but because he stopped before he went a mile. THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK HE WOULD NOT ALSO HAVE DONE SO IF THE RACE WAS 1 1/8th.<

I agree. There is no reason to conclude he can\'t get 10F off this race.

There was every reason to conclude he couldn\'t get 10F off everything else in his record to date and this performance did nothing to change that.

There was also every reason to conclude he wasn\'t runing as well as many people thought coming into this race - including his last start against a relative non-entity where he was loose on the lead and failed to draw off.

This was the worst 5-2 shot in a major stake this year.



Post Edited (08-29-04 17:43)

[TGJB]

The worst 5/2 shot in a major stake this year is Sarafan later today.

LOL. I\'ll take a look. Thanks.  

I am just still pissed off that I hated LH and thought CE would get a suck up second at best and didn\'t cash. :-)



Post Edited (08-29-04 17:44)

[kev]

LH broke a bone is his foot or something and is being retired.

[Lucy]

well, there it is --- that horse broke his own foot rather than face the prospect of running 10f.

[jimbo66]

Class Handicapper,

Thanks for your answer.  It helps and makes sense.  

It is too bad LH is going to be retired.  For one, I would have loved to see him in the Cigar Mile and next year in the Met Mile.

And I would have loved to bet against him if he actually came back and ran in the Classic.  

I agree with you 100% on LH.  I understand that the Travers didn\'t prove that LH didn\'t want the 1 1/4 (especially with him being hurt).  I, like you, had ALREADY ASCERTAINED that before the Travers, based on all of his 3 year old races.  The only race he showed any semblance of being a distance horse was the Derby.  He got caught in both preps, ran awful in the Preakness and even in victory in the HAskell, didn\'t win like I thought he would and should (with RHT not firing)

But as with most horse racing debate, it will be \"un-answered\" for many.  Cozzene and others (JB I guess too) will believe LH could have gotten the distance.  Just like many Smarty fans really believe he was a GREAT horse and not just really good.  I don\'t think he ran enough to be \"great\" but others will disagree.

[fasteddie]

We would all like to see Smarty and Lion, and all the rest next year, but this is the state of racing. Stronger, faster, but brittle racehorses mean fewer races, early retirement, or worse. This is why I am so keen on Birdstone in the Classic; he hasn\'t burned out yet, and the older horse crop is average.

[miff]

TGAB,
Nice pick in the 7th at Saratoga, tossing the slow (phony wide) 4 horse@ 8 to 5.I missed the tri but hit the exacta pretty good.