Jason Servis...HOLY COW!

[Mathcapper]

My guess that the late action on FF was a combination of the computer teams and big bettor(s) (with some inside info that FF was a good thing?) got a little more support with that Finley update. The $24,055 and $11,596 win bets smack of computer teams. The precise, odd amounts are their exact MO based on the output from their algos telling them exactly how much they should wager. The $60K bet in twelve $5K increments is not the MO of a computer team at all â€" it smacks of one big bettor, possibly on-track.

One reliable twitter source tweeted that he spoke with a very large on-track bettor that informed him that it’s possible to place $5K wagers at the $50 NYRA windows, and that one can fire off such bets in rapid succession to get down as much as $100K in less than 30 seconds. You don’t need to be a CAW team with “direct access” to the wagering pools (not sure if they have this ability?) or even an ADW bettor with simple batch betting capability, although that certainly makes things easier.

Another twitter source did a deep dive into the effect of that particular $60K bet. He noted that without that bet, the payoff on FF would have been around $8.50, much closer to FF’s 7/2 implied final odds based on the Will Pays.

So it looks like the computer teams did what they always do â€" they bet the horse down late, right to what the implied final odds were based on the Will Pays. Simultaneously, it looks like some big bettor also came in with that $60K wager and drove the horse down even further to 5/2.

Does that mean something nefarious was going on? Not necessarily, but several facts certainly make it look suspicious:

(a)   the fact that FF got pounded down to well below the 7/2 implied final odds based on the Will Pays
(b)   the fact that the bet came in at the last possible second
(c)   the fact that FF went on to win in an absolute laugher with a likely big new top in near-record time

Did he risk being shut out by betting so late? Sure, but to my mind, that\'s even more of an indication that “somebody knew something” and wanted to get as big a bet down as late as possible so as to hide it from the sharpie board watchers looking for just such signs of “smart money” action. By rattling off $5K bets in rapid succession after the last odds flash went up until the windows closed, he was able to get as much down as he could without tipping off the board watchers before the race went off. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were standing at the $50K window watching the horses load into the gate as he bet (because of the latency issue with online feeds, if you’re looking to get down a bet at the last possible second, it’s actually much better to bet at the track), and that he would have bet even more if he could have within the time frame available.

All speculation of course, and a $60K bet at the last second doesn’t necessarily mean there was a betting coup going on, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time. It’s happened at the track since time immemorial, this would just be one of the more recent and egregious examples of it. And granted, $60K isn’t all that much when you look at the kinds of lines these computer teams are swinging around on a regular basis, but it’s still “six stacks of high society\" as Richie noted, a figure at which Knish would certainly advise exercising a little more prudence.

[FrankD.]

Thanks Rock,

Great work diving into this and kudo’s to Bill Finley for diving back into investigating the wagering after his off base dollar amount  article and theory in the  first piece.

Finley and several other journalists were sent a body of work that Rocky did that killed the first theory of 45k being bet on FF late and shot down the consensus that it was all computer teams that killed the price. We received comments from those who cover the game for a living such as: 100% computer teams, 2 teams collided on the same horse and one who actually believe it or not said “this is old news and sent me a link to piece he wrote 5 years ago”.

Thank you Bill Finley for doing due dillegence while quite frankly others sat on their hands. It’s amazing that this turnaround of theories, dollars and a 2nd article all took place in a matter of hours.

Now those of you that frequent the win pool know that cheaters or those associated with them have the capability to rock the odds undetected by anyone at the last second. Many of you establish the perceived value per the teams on the will pays. Any given Saturday in the backyard there are 4-5 guys doing it all from the school of Rocky. The fruits of your labor are now worthless because they can be off set in seconds. Even the average Joe betting modestly has come to grips that 5/1 loading will go to 4/1, maybe high 7/2. When your $12 horse went to $10 or $9.60, yeah it hurts but now it can go to $7.50...... Do the math and see what that will do to your bankroll over the course of the year.

To we horizontalists, quit looking for the sharp action in will pays when you start a pick 5 sequence because now the 4th choice and doubles and 3rd in pick 3’s in a 7 horse heat with 2 hopeless longshots is a live horse. If you could spot such action as pool watchers have for years you most probably would include that horse, TG’s or not in your equation as a saver. Forget it, that info is no longer available or relevant.

It’s a copy cat world and to quote MJ “to have the Blatentcy” to pull this off on a big Saturday in a stakes race? Buyer and Beyer beware it now can and will happen again and again.

Rezlegal is still waiting for NYRA’s response.

Nero fiddled as Rome burned, did someone mention history repeating itself?

Frank D.

[trackjohn]

Nero fiddled while Rome burned... perfect summation Frank...as discussed, if sh t like this continues it will drive those folks who wager between $500,000 - 1,000,000 per year (which likely describes > half of this board) out of the game within 5 years. I understand that \'bots\' constitute between 20-25% of the handle... BUT...I would estimate that those folks who wager >$500k/year are a much greater percentage...if we disappear it will cripple the game... comments?

John

[rezlegal]

If I get a response before opening weekend,  drinks on me in backyard that Sunday. NYRA is so arrogant they can’t be bothered to respond to a suggestion I made by separate email that same day that the wagering interface on the NYRA Bets full site needs to be updated so that will pays and probables be displayed on the same page as odds. I have no expectations of any response because we are all pawns and as grown ups we each need to do what we perceive to be in our own self interest.

[trackjohn]

Thanks for the drinks offer Rez...bit I\'m guessing that we are going to pay for them ourselves..

[BitPlayer]

I confess to inexperience in betting coups, but in this context, betting $60,000 in one chunk at the last minute strikes me as the wrong way to go about it.  If you know from the doubles that the computer groups think your horse should be 7/2, letting his odds stay at 6-1 throughout the betting is an invitation to the computer groups to dive in late.  Wouldn\'t it be better to dribble enough money into the pool to keep his odds around 7/2, so that the computer groups don\'t bet?  That way, you get the public\'s money mostly to yourself, rather than having to share it with the computer groups.  Or would the computer groups notice that?

Interesting that Firenze Fire was also bet more heavily in the exacta pools than in the double pools:

https://twitter.com/truxtonstables/status/1016496763581104129

[Mathcapper]

It\'s possible that $60K bettor had no idea that FF was 7/2 in the Will Pays and figured to get bet down late. His only goal may have been to get his bet down as late as possible to hide it from an unsuspecting public before the boardwatchers had time to react.

Interesting theory though - if he had indeed bet earlier, would the bots have lightened up with their last minute wagers and sent FF off closer to 7/2?

Also possible that same bettor punched some big late exacta tix, as Boscar suggested.

[Silver Charm]

Thanks for clarifying on Mendy. My question is what is illegal about someone hammering $60K to Win. Fools bet bigger amounts to Show and just 14 days ago on the Foster Card someone punch in $50K to Win with 10 MTP on a McPeek horse who DIDNT WIN.

Now if Win money came out and Win money went back in then that\'s a different story to me. But as you said that didn\'t happen. The Betting limit thing intrigues me. ($5,000). but clicking repeat bet 12 times in 10 seconds is not that hard to due. Who knows maybe he meant to do it 20 and got shut out.....

[Mathcapper]

Betting is not illegal. Cheating is.

Proving it is another matter. As rezlegal noted, circumstantial vs. direct evidence.

Maybe that big bettor simply hated Mendy and decided to send it in on the white hot supertrainer. There\'s a lot of circumstantial evidence that suggests otherwise as I noted in my previous post, but hard to prove with certainty..

[trackjohn]

Well said Rocky...

[Boscar Obarra]

Bit of a mass hysteria on this one (the mendy race).  We had one get hammered today, and hardly any mention of it .  20-1 to 7-1,  that\'s a pretty good drop, even Grandma might notice that even if her clipboard was broken.

PS  It got nipped at the wire. Good \'handicapping\', though.


Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for clarifying on Mendy. My question is
> what is illegal about someone hammering $60K to
> Win. Fools bet bigger amounts to Show and just 14
> days ago on the Foster Card someone punch in $50K
> to Win with 10 MTP on a McPeek horse who DIDNT
> WIN.
>
> Now if Win money came out and Win money went back
> in then that\'s a different story to me. But as you
> said that didn\'t happen. The Betting limit thing
> intrigues me. ($5,000). but clicking repeat bet 12
> times in 10 seconds is not that hard to due. Who
> knows maybe he meant to do it 20 and got shut
> out.....

[Gerard]

Must be the same guy who played Lucky Dan to win.

[rezlegal]

I write to respectfully push back on what B O characterizes as “mass hysteria”. I think this Board has been measured.  What happened in the Dwyer served to shine a bright light on an issue that is now in the forefront - batch computer betting. Silver is correct- there is nothing illegal about it in a game where everyone seeks an edge. What makes last Saturday unique was the extreme nature of what occurred. This is an issue for the tracks to figure out ( they won’t) and for bettors to be beware of( they won’t either). I will guess that the example you used of another late hit in another race was not nearly as extreme as what happened last Saturday. I received a bit  of criticism for indirectly raising the Servis issue ( I have never seen the word conflate used as much as in the last few days)in my email to Lewandowski. As a matter of strategy, I acknowledge, particularly as an attorney, perhaps there was no point  in throwing that in my email, particularly since I took pains to,state I was in no position to accuse Servis of anything.. BUT- there ain’t a poster or reader on this Board that didn’t think of that issue and whether the coup was related somehow to magic performed by another supertrainer. . This is not hysteria- it is a legitimate concern for any bettor. The far greater concern is whether we are all simply banging our heads against the wall because it will feel good when we stop.

[Boscar Obarra]

My reference was directed at the fact that while events of this nature occur regularly , somehow this became high profile. Straw/Camel ?

  The pools have been under \'attack\' for some time now.

  Byk show had Paul Matties on yesterday discussing .

[Al Caught Up]

To win? He was supposed to play Lucky Dan to show!