Jason Servis...HOLY COW!

[JR]

ðŸ'ðŸ'ðŸ'

[Mathcapper]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rocky could you please do some math for us?
> I ve seen 2 places where it is stated that 90 of
> the last 105k bet into the win pool was on FF. If
> that is the case than the 45k Finley is throwing
> out is off.

Frank --

Unfortunately I wasn\'t around to grab the marginal pools during that race like I usually do, or I would have been able to pin down to the dollar how much was bet on FF in each late flash.

I can still back-engineer it, but not without making some assumptions and approximations. After doing so I\'m not sure either one of those estimates is right. Without being able to confirm how much total money was bet in that last flash though it\'s hard to tell.

That $105K figure wherein FF dropped from 5-1 to 5/2 doesn\'t make sense because at least three of the entries, particularly Mendy, could not have drifted up as much as they did in that last flash if that were the case, given the odds they were at the time FF was 5-1.

As best I can ascertain, it looks like they\'re right that around $90K was bet on FF in that late flash, but the marginal pool looks like it was more like $170K than $105K, which means FF took a little over half of the final marginal pool and his marginal odds were around 3/5. Mendy\'s corresponding marginal odds were over 10-1, which is quite rare for an odds-on horse going in the gate.

Wish I had those marginal pools to nail down those numbers exactly because this one looked to be quite an anomaly.

[JR]

“Corruption is why we win.” - Danny Dalton, Syriana

Again it begs the question, who is “we” in that sentence?

[jbelfior]

Apparently $105k wagered in last 18 seconds before the pools closed.

How? Who?  Where?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Mathcapper]

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The replays on nyra.com often pick up well before
> the horses enter the gate.  In this case, we can
> see that Firenze Fire was 6-1 and Seven Trumpets
> drifted from 14-1 to 15-1 as they were circling
> behind the gate.  In the first flash after the
> gates opened, Firenze Fire had dropped to 5-1 and
> Seven Trumpets had dropped to 12-1.  By the time
> they hit the 6f pole, they were 5-2 and 10-1,
> respectively.  Based on a couple of sets of DD
> probables from the prior race, I guessed Firenze
> Fire would be 3.8-1 and Seven Trumpets would be
> 8.5-1.
>
> I wonder if the batch bettors underestimated the
> amount of late money that would come in on Firenze
> Fire.


Surprisingly, I never seem to see this happen. I see scenarios like FF all the time, where the horse is 5-1 loading into the gate and 3.8-1 in the Will Pays, so you expect the horse to get bet down to 4-1 or 7/2 in the last flash. The vast majority of they do, sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less (if they don\'t, the odds of you cashing that win ticket drop precipitously).


You\'d think that with all the computer teams out there looking at that 5-1 price, with \"fair value\" having already bet set at 3.8-1 in the Will Pays, that they might all jump in independent of one another at the last second and inadvertently pound that horse down well below that 3.8-1 fair value with all their big bets, but it doesn\'t seem to happen.


Perhaps the invisible hand of the market? Or maybe the big batch bettors got burned enough times by betting such horses down to the point that they\'re underlays that they\'ve developed means to estimate the amount of expected late action from the other computer teams and adjusted accordingly to prevent overbetting.

[Mathcapper]

No surprise there really. 30-40% of the pool routinely comes in after the first horse loads into the gate. In this race that equates to $250-350K.


If the last flash of odds showing on the replay are representative, then even more than $105K had to have been bet between that last flash of odds and the final odds. Mendy could not have drifted up from 1-1 to 3-2 if only $105K was bet after that last flash unless money was actually removed from the pool on him (same goes for a couple of the other entries as well). So it looks like closer to $170K was bet after those last visible odds were showing on the screen when they started running.

[Silver Charm]

Well stated and I think I actually pitched that thought before. Mendy had money removed. That $105,000 amount wagered would be net after say any amount up to $50,000 was taken back out.

I pulled a $50 bet at Arlington on Saturday as they loaded. I could have easily punched in somebody else but with 4 more clicks. The days of handing a teller a stack of cash are long gone. There are NO restrictions to keep people fron doing what I described. $50 or $50,000. It doesnt matter....

[Mathcapper]

Please don\'t get me wrong, I\'m not saying that massive amounts of bets on Mendy were cancelled.

In all the races I\'ve ever tracked marginal pools for over the past year or so, of which there have been hundreds, I have never seen once seen the marginal late money totals go down on any horse.

That\'s why I said that several other horses in the race would have had to have had money removed from the pools if those last visible odds were a correct reflection of the final odds shift based on an only $105K marginal pool. Virtually impossible that three horses in the same race would have thousands of dollars of cancelled wagers in the marginal pool totals when I\'ve never seen even one ever.

[mjellish]

Well, i got to chime in here.

All i can say is ive seen worse.  

Good for this board to notice and you wont find a more intelligent discussion anywhere.

Better for those who got out.

And it is what it is.

Always has been and ever will be.

But the blatency, if that’s even a word, is truly and utterly astounding.

Hell with being subtle is snother way to say it.  

But that musta been a party.

[jbelfior]

Finley coming out with more details and info in tomorrow\'s TDN.

No bets were cancelled on Mendy. One bettor,with 30 seconds left, put $60,000 to win on FF. Guy must have misread FF\'s sheet.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/total-of-124109-bet-to-win-on-firenze-fire-in-last-36-seconds-of-dwyer-wagering/

[Fairmount1]

Per the most recent Finley article I seen posted on twitter, 22 seconds before betting closed:

\". . . 12 bets in increments of $5,000 were bet at the same time.  It\'s apparent that one player made a $60,000 win bet at that time but his or her tote company was only able to record the bets at a maximum of $5,000 each.\"

Are there tote companies that can record a bet of more than $5,000 each?  Or would only \"CAW teams\" have direct access to wagering in the pools at any amount they desire?

As for you beyond large bettors, setting aside how stupid a $60k win bet is generally speaking, can any of you bet $7000 let\'s say in one click on your ADW account?  Or would it also go through in incremental amounts and require additional clicks by you?  I ask this b/c I\'m wondering if this statement is a clue to the \"tote company.\"  (Ie, certain companies would accept the bet but then send it in with 12 bets versus a company that would not accept a bet beyond a certain amount without additional work seconds later?)  And I assume teams can bet any amount they so desire as long as the money is hitting the pools.  

Would Belmont/NYRA honor my bet at 22 seconds to post when I say to the teller \"Six stacks of high society on number seven\"?  You know the answer.

So I end this post with this.  I\'m signing Rocky up on my \"team.\"  I\'ll probably easily recruit a few others with more bucks than brains with him on my CAW team.  Now how do I have direct access to the pools?  Why haven\'t I heard this answer?  Anyone that wants to jump in and tell me who I talk to at NYRA with my team to get my direct access, please let me know.  I would nearly guarantee armed with this additional information Rocky could exploit a few pools himself.  Correct me if I\'m wrong here Rock.  If I\'m betting against these other CAW guys and Kay wants to enhance my guest experience, shouldn\'t my dollar or dollars be on equal footing with every other dollar clicked into the pools?

As for the $60k bet that wasn\'t a CAW bettor, I\'m guessing he is connected to the Servis barn.  I don\'t hear anyone nearing the answer to that question either.    

........crickets...............crickets.......

[Boscar Obarra]

It\'s nice to fantasize , but if that guy was connected to Servis , why would he wait till the last possible second and risk a shutout?

Ans: He wouldn\'t  (unless he was foolish)

[Fairmount1]

He was foolish enough to bet 60k in the win pool.....

On the positive side, the horse won by 9.  That\'s some solid handicapping to have that kind of confidence........

[Boscar Obarra]

No mention was made of any other bets , but I wouldn\'t discount the possibility  of some punching in the exacta. Quite rare these days for someone to be that sloppy.