Jason Servis...HOLY COW!

[jbelfior]

He was 3/5 on the board when they were loading. Based on that.

How many have you seen go from 3/5 to 3/2 in NY in 1 minute? Look forward to your response. Setting the over/under at zero.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Silver Charm]

I agree on the zero. So do we have two issues here? Mendy had $50K popped on him early. He opened at 1-2. Electrobically was that deposit pulled and then hapf punched in on FF. Rugbymans odds wejt up a little but not that much. 7-2 to 9-2? Follow the money

[FrankD.]

This is an email sent by rezlegal, he asked me to assist him in posting it on the board.

A couple of observations:
There was 858K in the win pool for this race 190K of which was on FF.
One pool watcher told me that 90 of the last 105K bet was on FF. Per a twitter follower that same number is out there in tweet land.
FF was 4th choice in will pays in the Doubles and 3rd choice in pick 3’s in a 7 horse field.
This is not a typical computer generated punch as their pre race or will pay algorithms would never achieve a 5/2 value for this horse. All major services had this horse slow. The track was very fast yesterday I would anticipate a TG 2- ish at least a 5 point new top.

At the very least the wagering as well as Jason Servis recent “RED HOT RUN”as stated by one of the NBC genii need to be investigated. Anything less is a total outrage IMHO.

THANK YOU Richard,

I would hope that a couple of folks in the media who read this board  would PLEASE have the intestinal fortitude to address this in their forums?


 Mr. Lewandowski- I have been a racing fan for more than 50 years. I also an owner involved in 5  partnerships and an active NYRA Bets user. I am a Saratoga season ticket holder. I am also an attorney with more than 49 years active experience as a litigator, much of it involving fraud based litigation. I take this opportunity to write to you as the NY Gaming Commission Steward to request, indeed, demand, an appropriate investigation into the betting that took place in connection with yesterday\'s Dwyer handicap.

The basic facts are not disputed. Firenze, the winner of the race, trained by Jason Servis, was between 6-1 and 8-1 throughout the betting. Literally, as the horses were being loaded into the gate the horse was bet down to 5-2 and the $1 exacta with a 14-1 shot second paid $25. The horse had a stunning form reversal and won with ease by 9 lengths in a very fast time. Given that NYRA has already touted in the media how much was bet yesterday on a national basis, an enormous bet (not large, but enormous ) had to have been made at the last minute. The post race statements me by the connections of the horseâ€"“We now realize he is a one turn horse” are pablum designed to explain away what happened and to detract from asking “WHY?” and “HOW”. I was in a box seat yesterday, as I was fortunate enough to have a horse in the Belmont Derby and all anyone in ear shot could talk about was the incredible action this horse took.

This email is not prompted by sour grapes as my investment in the race (less than $20) is not worth my time and effort in writing this email.  Like many horseplayers I am frustrated and angry at the apparent like of oversight protecting those who continue to make the existence of this game possible-the bettors. It would be inappropriate and irresponsible to accuse Jason Servis (or any trainer) of wrongdoing through the use of unlawful drugs or otherwise since I am not in possession of any facts to support such a accusation and my training was a litigator has taught me that facts are what count, not suspicion. ( I do note that Mr. Servis has been the subject of many writings of late on racing blogs  regarding his incredible nearly 50% win percentage at Monmouth. He has supplanted Jorge Navarro as the most discussed trainer. This issue also goes far beyond a single trainer.)

As the NY State Steward (I have actually read the regulations) it is fair to state that your primary responsibility is to preserve the integrity of horse racing as conducted by NYRA. I respectfully suggest that you can only fulfill that obligation by conducting an investigation into the betting patterns, interviewing those involved and publishing your findings so your constituency -the betting public-at least has some comfort that their interests are being protected and that we hear something from you or NYRA other than there is nothing to investigate or  â€œthe chemists are ahead of us”. I respectfully suggest that neither NY State nor NYRA should be arrogant enough to believe this is an issue it can ignore. I have spoken to many involved in horse racing and the usual response is something like “ I don’t want to bite the hand the feeds me” or a shrug of the shoulders that says “It is what it is”. One person heavily involved in racing, in a confidential communication to me today on this issue stated “The cheaters have become emboldened and feel no shame in flaunting it.” Again, I am in no position to accuse Mr.. Servis or anyone of cheating. That seems to be your job to investigate.  I do know that horse players are among the most abused persons-and most of the time they deserve it for continuing to play a game that, all to often, they believe is not played on a level playing field. All of us have options---we can stop gambling on horse racing, stop investing in partnerships or switch ADWs. The events of yesterday have made me start to think about some or all of this options. As an attorney I am also aware of the legal options available to compel the performance of your duties and responsibilites.

I am 72 and have choices where I can use my recreational disposable income. The response of you and NYRA to the demand made in this email will strongly suggest my future use of those funds. Since your cell phone is on line I provide you mine in the event you would like to discuss this further. On behalf of horseplayers everywhere, I am outraged at what happened yesterday and request that Mr. Kay and Mr. Panza forward this missive to NYRA’s Board of Directors. Thank you for your anticipated attention. Richard Resnik

[Boscar Obarra]

Was actually 4/5 , not 3/5 and had been for some time before the start, and was actually 1-1 when they broke.  Look at the replay . so 1-1 to 3/2 is not exactly 3/5 to 3/2.   You lose the over under bet

 No doubt , there was a huge punch on FF very late,  as that one actually went 5-1 5/2 AFTER the start, quite rare in NY.


 Hey, AFAIC this guy is  rubbing it in everyones face.  Obviously they are powerless .  Funny how no other trainers say boo.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks for the efforts on all fronts by Rez and Frank.

I had zero dollars invested in the race.  Setting aside the issue of my suspicions with this trainer and his magical abilities lately, my concern was and is also with the betting.  Can I bet 100k in the final minute?  If I was on track, I doubt they could spit out enough tickets in that time if I had the cash on me to slide through the window.  Where did the bet come from?  Was it one bet and was it electronic as I suspect?  It is interesting to me what would be considered public versus non-public information in this arena.  How far has anyone pushed this under open records request laws for betting information?  Often in open records requests, info such as account numbers or identities are redacted if protected by law but the public information is still provided.  I\'m sure someone by 2018 has chased this a certain distance already.  NYRA bets surely has a rebate system?  And the rebates associated with any of the government connected entities would be terrific information to see month by month and year by year.  Or what about the information connected to other ADW\'s, rebates, amounts bet, etc?  Maybe the identities would be protected (maybe not necessarily) but the amounts and other pertinent information that is public would lead to more clues about these type situations.  Transparency and integrity have not been racing\'s strong suits.  I can\'t even begin to explain last night\'s scenario at Fairmount Park (check the charts of last night\'s 6th and 7th races and the (lack of) payoffs for a purse only puzzle that the stewards wouldn\'t even answer to me face to face after racing last night beyond a blanket answer of \"program issues\").

Regardless and back on topic, the late wager(s) on this particular race does not seem like gambling but rather a theft of everyone else\'s money in the race (or obviously a certain percentage of it).  

The media of racing needs to complete some serious journalism here and find some answers since I likely know NYRA\'s response already.  Hearing softballs about people are complaining and don\'t think it is right is not what we are looking for but rather more transparency about who, when, where, how are the questions that need to be answered.  Hey Kasept, when you have Servis on to celebrate his great training job, ask him if he knows or has any idea who made the large late wager?  Ask him if he wagered on the race or anyone close to him?  Can you ask him how all of his horses have improved beyond belief in the last month plus? Aren\'t these fair questions? Anyone else on here have questions of Servis they want answered?  Post them here and let\'s see if Steve will ask him.  

As for the separate medication issues, clean up the game already and let\'s see OOC testing, cameras in every stall, and no drugs on race day.  Then you will see who can really train a horse.  I\'ve said this before and while tilting at windmills I say it here again.  Clean up the game and make the rules uniform already.    

Keep us updated if you learn or hear more.

[Fairmount1]

Some similar language and thoughts here.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/betting-on-the-dwyer-a-game-of-bait-and-switch/

[Boscar Obarra]

Stop picking on the man, you\'re upsetting him

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/On_roll_of_a_lifetime_Servis_says_chatter_is_embarrassing_123

[Fairmount1]

I saw that article earlier today.  Some real hard hitting journalism as the answers are all right there!!!

Spots his horses well and has patient owners......  

I guess the other trainers, well except for BB, haven\'t figured that out yet to get their win percentage to 50 percent in NY.  I would love to see the look on Allen Jerkens or Phil Johnson\'s face if you told them you could have helped their win percentage if they would have just spotted their horses better and found some patient owners.

Please tell me the author of the article and anyone else in the world doesn\'t actually believe this is why he wins so much.

[rezlegal]

The real chutzpah is one of Servis quotes is that “ he will probably be down to 25% by year end”.Second place is his horses are “well placed”.( In olden times it was “ the shoes”).The truth is none of us has any concrete evidence re whether anyone cheats- we have suspicions, some well founded and some not- based on experience as horse players. When I sent my missive to the Steward assigned by NY Gaming , I made a point of stating I was not accusing Servis of anything. Bill Finley’s article, forwarded by Fairmount, is well written but concludes there was no cheating involved. There is no basis for that conclusion either. The NY Steward and NYRA owe it to all investigate what happened and issue a report. Any bets on what will happen?

[TGJB]

There’s lots of evidence, I.E. ridiculous percentages of tops. Proof is another matter.

[rezlegal]

Jerry- at best, lots of new tops is” circumstantial “ evidence, to wit, evidence that relies on an inference to connect it to a conclusion of fact.The horse racing world is waiting for direct evidence which supports all of our assertions directly, i.e. without need for any additional or inference. The law can be a bitch like that!

[skitimber]

If I had a \"good thing\" and could bet $20,000 on a horse and get 7/2 or 4-1 vs putting $45000 and getting 5/2, why would I be so stupid as to wager the $45,000?  It suggests that either more than one program betting entity/whale had the horse or the $45,000 was in the know (or just stupid.)  Judging from the sheets, if I saw that horse at 5-1, my thought wouldn\'t be \"let me make my biggest wager of the month or year on a straight win bet here.\"  (By the way, did anyone notice/explain if and what happened to the place and show prices?)

At any rate, seeing something like this offers little hope for bettors like me because either I\'m not \"in the know\" or my handicapping skills can\'t come close to competing with the program used to determine this was an unbelievable wager at say 5/2 or 3/1 - the price they had to assume they\'d end up getting! I\'ve been betting less and less and this might just push me to Derby Day and the Saturday of Breeders Cup only.

[FrankD.]

Everyone seems to think by the size of the wager and it’s late hit it has to be a computer team. Just as you say you’re not jumping out of your seat thinking this is the best bet ever @ 5/1 as I stated earlier it does not fit a BOT profile to pound a slow horse who is 4th choice in the double......

There was an obvious insider betting coup here and who is to say that one of the insiders does not have electronic access that can punch such a bet? I’m not one to wave the conspiracy theory flag but an owner, large bettor could be bankrolling a team and have access or with the duel track roll Servis has been on, is it crazy to think a well funded group couldn’t start up their own program?

Rocky could you please do some math for us?
I ve seen 2 places where it is stated that 90 of the last 105k bet into the win pool was on FF. If that is the case than the 45k Finley is throwing out is off.

[BitPlayer]

There are actually two separate issues here:  Jason Servis\'s \"hot streak\" and the late action.

I\'m skeptical that NYRA can do anything about the former.

I\'ve been watching a lot of NY racing lately, and it is not surprising to me for a Servis trainee to take more action than the figures would seem to warrant.  What was unusual in the Dwyer was how late the money came in.  My impression (perhaps mistaken) has been that  the money shows early.  For example, in the race after the Dwyer, Eye Luv Lulu was 7-1 when I noted the early odds and then drifted up to close at 10-1.

Some possible explanations for the late action in the Dwyer:

Fans of the past-posting narrative would probably note that Firenze Fire broke extremely well.

The composition of the betting public may have been a little different in this race than in a normal dirt stake because of the presence of Mendelssohn.  I\'m guessing that international money would have come in early.

A lot of people may have been sucked in by the 6-1.  That was my situation.  I kept waiting for the odds to drop and when they appeared to be holding up, I made a small saver play (less that .01% of $90,000).  When the odds dropped, my saver was too small to save me.

The computer guys may have screwed up.  I know they have algorithms, but algorithms are only as good as the world view they represent.  (Anyone remember Lehman Brothers?)  The computer guys may have imperfect information about what other computer groups (or some loose-cannon big bettor) are going to do.

Whatever the explanation, I agree that NYRA and/or the Gaming Commission should look into the late betting and publicize the results.  I\'m not optimistic this will happen.  Transparency does not seem to be a priority for the officials who regulate NY racing.  Try reading a NY stewards\' decision some time (e.g, \"After reviewing the video and speaking to the riders involved the claim of foul is disallowed and the race is official as is. Boilerplate.  Boilerplate. Boilerplate.\").

[BitPlayer]

The problem with the betting coup explanation is that it doesn\'t explain the odds movement on other horses.  If someone just plunged on Firenze Fire, then the odds on all the other horses should have gone up.  In fact, the odds on Mendelssohn and Rugbyman went up, but the odds on Noble Indy were stable or down slightly and the odds on Seven Trumpets and Seahenge went down.

I don\'t disagree that inside information is available to some bettors.  I\'d be surprised if trainers weren\'t giving betting advice to existing or prospective owners or those willing to pay for the information.  It is hard to see, however, how a ban on inside information could coexist with claiming races.