Ummmm....

TGJB · March 31, 2018, 06:38:48 AM

Neg 3 or 4? Curious what Moore was thinking the last 100 yards, with Ky on the radar.

johnnym · March 31, 2018, 06:44:03 AM

How souped up is that track today?

Fairmount1 · March 31, 2018, 07:32:08 AM

2nd time Lasix in Louisville. This one will definitely take a lot of money after that effort, as a sibling to Beholder, the $3 million price tag, and shipping in for European high profile overbet O\'Brien/Coolmore connections.

Tavasco might finally have a year to find some foreign flavor that impacts the Derby.

Silver Charm · March 31, 2018, 08:49:28 AM

He looked as good as anthing else your gonna see. Worh everyone on seemingly a one or two race prep schedule. January or December first career starts....etc etc ignore this at your own peril!!!

dsipes · March 31, 2018, 09:39:38 AM

Anybody get Mendelsohn\'s fractions? Thought I heard race caller say he went first quarter in 25.

ajkreider · March 31, 2018, 01:24:48 PM

Go to their results. Trakus splits are there.

Did the last 100m in 6.18, which looks really good against the world cup. Will get a better figure than West Coast, I think

Niall · March 31, 2018, 03:41:00 PM

Obviously he was riding to instructions. Get position, save ground, take a breather, open up, and finish with authority. Seriously though... serious horse, with a serious developing pattern, and serious doesn\'t describe Moore/O\'Brien. I hear the symphony playing at the TG Seminar at Siro\'s!

Jeff, thanks for cultivating that relationship with NYRA. Xpressbet give me $$, and TG/NYRA gives me winners.

Fairmount1 · March 31, 2018, 07:24:14 PM

106 Beyer Figure.

TGJB · March 31, 2018, 10:02:06 PM

Itâ€™s gonna be better than that.

BitPlayer · April 01, 2018, 07:05:53 AM

That\'s what Randy Moss posted. Do you mean the Beyer will be revised upward or that the race will look faster on TG as you suggested at the top of this thread?

TGJB · April 01, 2018, 07:53:31 AM

I meant the latter, the former is possible. The second and third horses make it pretty clear where this one ends up. Timeform figure will be nuts, since they adjust for age.

Fairmount1 · April 01, 2018, 08:02:41 AM

Copied and pasted from Craig Milkowski\'s twitter feed:

These are the raw (unadjusted for track speed) pace and speed figures on the @TimeformUS scale:

UAE Derby

1/2 157
3/4 156
Fin 144

World Cup

1/2 117
3/4 132
1m 146
Fin 148

I think they gave Audible a 122.

Niall · April 04, 2018, 06:27:26 AM

Interesting listen on Steve Byk\'s podcast w/ Andy Beyer re how they came up with what they believe is an accurate BSF. I know little about making figures, but his explanation doesnt seem plausible. Since they had back figures from the World Cup horses they take the position that those horses ran \"their race\" so they just based their figures off of that? And because Beyer and Moss arrived at the same figure independently it must be accurate? I\'m lost. Any insight would be helpful. Beyer mentioned that in the past, one should take Dubai figures with a grain of salt, but thinks that these are dead on accurate. Ahhhh

Furious Pete · April 04, 2018, 06:57:26 AM

They sound lost.

Furious Pete · April 04, 2018, 07:03:02 AM

Re Mendelssohn I have him running about a neg 2.5 on the TG-scale. I guess TG will have him running about a point faster than that, which one absolutely could make a good case for. But we\'ll see.

IMHO the right question going forward isn\'t if he\"ll bounce or not, it is if he could run as well in a real race where he\'ll be taking dirt, navigating traffic, working out a trip and not getting anything for free. That\'s some pretty huge ifs.