Ummmm....

[Tavasco]

At first glance early speed ration smacks of %E. A well worn concept. Converting it to an integer confuses me some. I\'ll guess that his zero is a high %E say something close to 60%.

I use pace factors routinely and IMO @ a 1+1/4 distance I\'m looking for a horse whose %E is 50%. @ 1+1/2 48%  @ 5F 55-57%.

Of course the %E is irrelevant if a horses speed figure isn\'t competitive. A really good example is the recent Florida Derby where the two pacesetters probably earned %E ratios above 60% and consequently could not approach equaling their good race final time performance figure.

In the case of  Mendelssohn (sp?) and I haven\'t looked at the fractions I\'m suspecting your guy uses pars and the souped up track distorted his ration #. The field was not strung out instead rather well bunched early and that suggests a slower pace rather than a faster one. Secondly Mendelson the winner ran away from the field in the second half of the race suggesting late speed.

For me, and I have a Euro Centric Bias, the only important # is what the horse will pay on a win bet. i.e., I can hope you and the crowd play against him for whatever reason but he is obviously fast enough to compete for the win spot.

[TempletonPeck]

I\'ve never met him or heard anything positive or negative about him, but I\'m sure he\'s as nice a guy as you say (and you\'ll note I didn\'t say anything to the contrary), and as able in a bar fight, for whatever that could possibly be worth.

I was only trying to point out that I thought it was poor form to discuss what sounds like a competing product on a forum hosted (read: paid for) by Thorograph.

[johnnym]

So does e=mc2?

[Tavasco]

It relative!

[TGJB]

I actually don\'t mind discussions of other handicapping theories. But I wouldn\'t mind seeing the HANDICAPPING DISCUSSIONS HERE BEING (mostly) TG BASED. Lack of intercession re this issue on my part is due to business and laziness.

[Kasept]

Hard to make any judgement about the figure in question if you didn\'t actually listen to Beyer on ATR. And figures are always made taking other races on the card into consideration. Using the 10f World Cup, with a glut of know-quantity American horses, as part of the basis for Mendelssohn\'s number in the 9.5f UAE Derby, makes complete sense. You\'re really standing on the belief that not one horse among West Coast, Mubtaahij, Pavel & Forever Unbridled ~ who finished 2nd-5th ~ ran their representative race?

[dsipes]

Last three TG figs.... -4.2, 5.2, 9.  Has this been seen by anyone before?  Is there anyone who believes he won\'t regress?  I guess argument could be made that even if he regresses slightly, he\'s still a major contender.

[Niall]

Thank you mjellish for your explanation, really appreciate it. Especially in this context as the performance is an anamoly, except perhaps when you figure the breeding/connections. This is a situation we havent seen before. I\'m so tired just got back juice after 36 hours without. Even still I know that the greatest bargain  in years is to bet $50 on who you will think wins the Wood and get back $25 for th e Derby. We all win! Thanks NYRABETS/TG!

To JB\'s point though about the convo being somewhat TG related, without seeing the figure, we have to surmise that its a knockout and wager accordingly. But we have no idea whats going on at Ballydoyle right now. Whirlpool, massage, hyperbaric chamber, magnetic blanket and so on... catching up on the Masters, Later fellas

[mjellish]

You didnt understand what i said, or i didnt make it clear.  Either way, My only reply to your comment that i can make is to say read what i posted again please.  I made no comment about the World Cup race or the runners in it.

[ajkreider]

Pretty sure Byk (Kasept) was referring to this comment by Pete:

\"Mind you my response was to the proposed method of making figures on Mendelssohn by assuming that the horses in another race, the world cup, ran their race which would be insane. But I have not heard the actual episode so this might not have been what they meant (in fact, probably not, reading back I think I misunderstood. The assumption that the american world Cup horses all ran their races is flawed, though).\"

And, Byk is correct.

[toppled]

Here\'s the problem with just looking at the numbers without context: the numbers are on 3 different surfaces. Many times a horse will be a totally different animal on a different surface. All we can tell from these 3 numbers in order are he was a slower animal on turf in the USA after a trip where he regressed 1.75 points off his 2 year old top and still won the Breeder\'s Cup race with the 9. Then he moved to poly and aged a little and ran a new top 1st time poly. Then he goes to dirt which is expected to be his best surface, being a half to Beholder and Into Mischief. Now he exploded to an amazing #  So the big question is, is he a monster on dirt, or did he just freak this one time in what will be a knockout performance? We won\'t know until after the Derby, but with about 3 points leeway from the next best top and a Thoro-Pattern that has him almost exactly 50/50 to run just as fast or better, I\'m willing to go out on the limb and think he\'s a monster on dirt and until proven otherwise, I am not expecting a regression although it he\'s comfortably in front the jockey may not ride him as strenuously to the wire in the Derby, producing a higher number without any real regression. Also,you say you\'ve never seen a number pattern like this,but what about -.5,9.25,9.25 That\'s what last year\'s winner was & I was totally against him because of it.

[Furious Pete]

I have tried to listen to that podcast a few times, but poor content and audio quality puts me off.

Yes I agree that I should not have been making comments about my interpretation about what another one says someone said, and I admitted that my interpretation was probably wrong.

I do know how one make figures (and also, how one shouldn\'t make figures).

Of those mentioned it\'s fair to say that Pavel, Mubtaahij and Forever Unbridled probably ran their race (as per TG - ground is crucial for those assessments), West Coast not even close. I still can\'t really see how it is normal to use projection for one race, for another race, specially when the race wasn\'t even ran at the same distance. It must be a lot of voodoing involved in that process. The best way to do it would be to know how racing at Meydan works, how racing times works out over the different distances, how the track plays out, and to go off the local horses and those that have visited before, rather than 1st time invadors from the other side of the world. If you still insist on making numbers on that, at least be prepared to admit that you really don\'t have a clue on what you are doing (and I\'m not saying Andy Beyer didn\'t do just that, he is a very likable man that I respect a lot).

But the discussion is fruitless: Mendelssohn was fast. Period. Incredible fast, and more than fast enough. Even when one are considering the bias that undoubtedly helped that display. Now, will he repeat? I guess no figures could give one the answer to that.

Edit: On seeing that you are in fact Steve Byk, the host of ATR, here are some constructive suggestions for improving your podcast. First, the audio quality really must be better for it to be a \"good place to be\" for the listener, and that does not need to be hard/expensive to do in 2018. I listen to podcasts every day so I know that it\'s possible, also over telephone/skype. As for the content, I guess many people will be satisfied with what is, so no beef really there - it\'s just a matter of personal taste. I for one would love it if you could make episodes, maybe specials?, where one could have the discussions spinning around different themes. E.G. a \"Bias special\", where you could call around to different trainers, jockeys, track maintenance personal, bettors etc to get their input on the subject, you could do the same with \"figure making special\", \"pace special\" and \"workouts special\" (I see Mstrlucky74 would be following...). There are a lot of knowledge out there that would be interesting for those of us that don\'t already possess all the answers, and there really is an open spot in the market for someone that can gather the diversity of beliefs, theories, experiences etc that exists about different aspects of horse racing, and maybe even challenge them against each other. I believe this could fit well with your podcast profile.

[wrongly1]

Good point, how big of a new top is too big, maybe with this one we don\'t know.  Also if Justify, Good Magic and Enticed win big this weekend we might be talking about the 4th or 5th betting choice!  Easy toss if he was 2nd choice at 5/1 but harder decision at 12/1 or higher.

[johnnym]

Bellamy Road Part Duex?

[toppled]

My decision will be guided by his appearance when he arrives at Churchill.  If the experts are saying he looks gaunt & has lost weight since Dubai, I\'ll consider the Dubai race a knockout performance.  If on the other hand, he arrives and is looking in top shape, I\'ll be all in on him.  I look at it similar to when American Pharoah was going through the Triple Crown.  He ran a big # in the Derby.  Many thought he was going to bounce off the big Derby #.  However, all reports from the tracks indicated that he looked fine and was not showing signs that horses who have been knocked out show.  The difference is AP had a 1 as a 2YO and his -3 in the Derby wasn\'t the huge development that Mendelssohn has shown.
I think it will be interesting to see what happens if Mendelssohn wins the Derby.  Will he run in all 3 Triple Crown races?  Have his connections given any indication of their plans for him through June?  If he continues on, then it gets interesting since I\'ve seen many an analysis that said a horse who runs a knockout performance may hold it together for a next race, but eventually it will take its toll.