Miff

[Fairmount1]

Apologies to everyone on the board but I just can\'t help myself.....

____________________________________________

About 18 years ago I made a large wager with my closest friend at the time that the greatest golfer on the scene would not win more majors than Jack.  While that one is not complete (so not a redboard here lol?), I\'m looking pretty good to win that one.

Miff, your boy Pletch will NEVER win a Triple Crown.  Whatever amount you want to put on it let me know.  I\'m ALL IN.  

Is that the unlikely \"clunker\" from AD that you didn\'t see happening?

HAHAAHA.  Old Pletch got him a 2nd Derby but don\'t ever expect two muchless three races from TAP in this TC sequence.

All HAIL Bob Baffert!  

HAIL!!!

[T Severini]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apologies to everyone on the board but I just
> can\'t help myself.....
>
> ____________________________________________
>
> About 18 years ago I made a large wager with my
> closest friend at the time that the greatest
> golfer on the scene would not win more majors than
> Jack.  While that one is not complete (so not a
> redboard here lol?), I\'m looking pretty good to
> win that one.
>
> Miff, your boy Pletch will NEVER win a Triple
> Crown.  Whatever amount you want to put on it let
> me know.  I\'m ALL IN.  
>
> Is that the unlikely \"clunker\" from AD that you
> didn\'t see happening?
>
> HAHAAHA.  Old Pletch got him a 2nd Derby but don\'t
> ever expect two muchless three races from TAP in
> this TC sequence.
>
> All HAIL Bob Baffert!  
>
> HAIL!!!

Yah ...bobfert had proven he can keep a horse together, Pletcher had not.  Still when you beat the favorite out and bet to do so its a sour taste to not win.  

Maybe Always Dreaming is Super Saver. He caught breaks on the last two tracks, caught a very even track today.

[Topcat]

Headline-horse flowers who flourish in Hallandale can find themselves wilting after subsequent transplantings.

[jimbo66]

Fairmount,

Pletcher is what Pletcher is.  Gets lots of great stock, about the best at the unveiling of a two year old and also getting horses to run off layoffs.  He is as good as Baffert with those two categories.  

That said, Pletcher doesn\'t breathe the same air as Baffert as a trainer, particularly with the triple crown.  Baffert\'s 4 derby winners, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem and American Pharaoh, all ran HUGE in the Preakness on 2 weeks of rest.  And three of the four then ran HUGE in the Belmont (war emblem stumbled and ran up the track).  

Pletcher\'s 2 derby winners ran the worst preakness races of any derby winners in the last 50 years.  

It isn\'t close.  Baffert is the best.

Was listening to satellite radio a few weeks back.  They had Leon Blusiewicz on for an interview.  An octogenarian.  They asked him about great trainers.  Like most older people, I expected to hear Leon gush over the older \"all time\" greats.  He named a few but then said that in the last 50 years he hasn\'t seen anybody that can compare with Baffert.  Nobody has done what he has done.  He is at another level.  (paraphrasing).  

HE even has the old timers gushing over him.

Pletcher is Pletcher.  Nobody should be too surprised that he ran up the track.  The guy avoids the Preakness like the plague. 50 derby runners and 4 Preakness runners?

[Silver Charm]

jmbo66 Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------

> Nobody should be too
> surprised that he ran up the track.  

Jimbo I agree until here. There are a lot of people surprised. ALLDAY was gushing how good he was doing. Former mentor D Wayne said \"He has him right where he wants him\". TVG was peeing in their drawers over the confidence gushing from Johnny V and TP.

It was a Big Punch Bowl of bad Kool-aid and I drank it too. To your point whatever the standard was for dreadful efforts by a Derby Winner Pletcher just set it. 50 years ago was pre-medication.

I think this seriously puts a dent in his future Eclipse Awards. Numbers alone don\'t indicate a Horseman. The Trainers Manual he read as a young Boy has left this Chapter out. And he still hasn\'t figured it out....

[jimbo66]

Fair point Silver.

\"Nobody should be surprised\" was a bit over the top.  (I really dislike Pletcher and at times hard to be objective).

I posted this before the race along with who I liked (CE / CC / CMM), so this isn\'t redboarding, but I wasn\'t surprised because Pletcher is a bit of a \"one trick pony\".  He is REALLY good at that one trick, early developers/layoff horses, etc.etc.  But he hasn\'t shown he can or even will try to adapt to running back on short rest.  He has had 50 derby starters and 4 preakness?  Baffert does what Pletcher does + more.  

When you factor in that most reasonable people/handicappers knew the Derby was run on a biased track (as Andy Beyer pointed out) and that AD was with that bias, the Pletcher + bias factor made him a vulnerable favorite.).  Of course, he \"could have been\" a freak as many on this board thought both before and after the Derby.  But there seemed to be a reasonable chance that he would run awful.  I think TGJB called him the \"most likely winner\", but also suggested a tri box tossing him all the way out.  It seems contradictory, but not really, as it reflects the fact that there were multiple reasons to think he would run poorly.  

The pick-4 was nice, but this handicapper got stubborn about not including the 8 in the 3rd slot of supers and cost me a nice 5 figure score.  So be it.  Tough game.  No room for any mistakes.

Jim

[Silver Charm]

I sent the Trainer of that 8 horse a \"Good Luck\" text yesterday morning. And he replied with only \"Thanks\". I sent the same test in Oaks Day. Same reply.

He almost won the Oaks. Ran 3rd in the Preakness and win the CD co-feature at 12-1. He did replay later he heading in to the Belmont. Against this inconsistent crew with a steady galloper he seems as logical as anything else.

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When you factor in that most reasonable
> people/handicappers knew the Derby was run on a
> biased track (as Andy Beyer pointed out) and that
> AD was with that bias, the Pletcher + bias factor
> made him a vulnerable favorite.).  


On face value, blindly dismissing a horse (as Beyer did) because he may have benefited from a track bias in his previous race is a HORRIBLE approach to handicapping.  If a horse is positively affected by a bias, that would mean he ran a slower figure than what was given, changing his pattern. A slower figure could benefit (Pair or slight move forward instead of a huge top) or harm the chances of a horse (0-2-X).  If a horse was negatively affected by a bias, then he deserved a faster figure, and that too could either benefit or harm his next race.

[rezlegal]

Several responses to this group of posts: re TVG pushing the horse- putting aside the complaints about the hosts, TVG was huckstering that they would give new accounts 10-1 on AD ( up to a modest limit). Basically, it was no different than offering a $100. sign up bonus-  and if you own Betfair stock even better- since they didn\'t have to pay off to all those new accounts. Forgive my skepticism and cynicism, but perhaps the Betfair folks we sucking in the uninformed. With respect to the exchange between Jim, Sekrah andSilver, I offer only the following. Going into the Derby  AD had a pattern of (no fractions)9,9,0, with the 2 9s coming at TB. He never made it through my first pass and it cost me.Forget bias, wet track etc for the moment. Going into Preakness. we now have a pattern of 9,9,0 and a negative number. There is zero chance this Tgraph sheets player is doing anything but playing AD move backwards- 2 weeks, Pletcher blah blah are bonuses. Since I always want to learn, someone explain to me if you thought he would pair up,or move forward or why. and why oh why would anyone bet money because Allday liked the way he looked.

[jimbo66]

No Sekrah,

As per recent norm, you are off point again.

Andy Beyer\'s point, which is EXTREMELY valid, was that if a horse enjoys a speed, bias and trip advantage during a race and with all those advantages, still runs a mediocre figure for the level, then that horse will be a bad favorite next time out.  His view was that considering the pace/trip/inside bias, the 102 beyer wasn\'t very good and was weak for the Derby.  

And he is and was right.  Now, he didn\'t pick the winner, which is the part that matters, but he was right about AD.  Very right.

As for you, you have talked in many different directions this triple crown season,.  35 posts or so before the Derby talking about how great AD was, only to eventually post that you gave the 9-2 shot, a horse you fawned over, about a 10% chacne to win.  Then you lamented after the race that you made a mistake betting against the super horse to get sucked into a 30-1 shot with a nice pattern.

Then a few posts about Gunnevara and Always Dreamin Preakness week.

Then miraculously you pop up about 3 minutes before the Preakness, live to Classic Empire, Cloud Computing and Gunnevara.  No idea where CE or CC came from as far as you liking them and of course, you again bet against the horse you called the second coming.

So I would worry less about what Beyer says.  He was on point, whether you understood it or not.

Jim

[sekrah]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Sekrah,
>
> As per recent norm, you are off point again.
>
> Andy Beyer\'s point, which is EXTREMELY valid, was
> that if a horse enjoys a speed, bias and trip
> advantage during a race and with all those
> advantages, still runs a mediocre figure for the
> level, then that horse will be a bad favorite next
> time out.  His view was that considering the
> pace/trip/inside bias, the 102 beyer wasn\'t very
> good and was weak for the Derby.  


Without a context of a pattern to use AD\'s speed figure, this is ridiculous.

>
> And he is and was right.  Now, he didn\'t pick the
> winner, which is the part that matters, but he was
> right about AD.  Very right.

He was right by accident. He had no clue why AD didn\'t run well.  Just as he had no clue Chad Brown was mentally capable of training animals on dirt.


>
> As for you, you have talked in many different
> directions this triple crown season,.  35 posts or
> so before the Derby talking about how great AD
> was, only to eventually post that you gave the 9-2
> shot, a horse you fawned over, about a 10% chacne
> to win.  Then you lamented after the race that you
> made a mistake betting against the super horse to
> get sucked into a 30-1 shot with a nice pattern.
>

Nice of you to rewrite history. I had AD as one of the most likely winners in the Derby and said the analysis of his pattern was DEAD WRONG after many like yourself gave him no chance after misreading his 9s. The most likely winner in a 20 horse field still needs to have a price to pay and the odds weren\'t there to bet him. If he\'s 10-1 in the Derby, I would have had a big day. This is a game of value.

I never said I made a mistake betting against him. If the race is re-run, I make the same exact wagers I made.



> Then a few posts about Gunnevara and Always
> Dreamin Preakness week.
>
> Then miraculously you pop up about 3 minutes
> before the Preakness, live to Classic Empire,
> Cloud Computing and Gunnevara.  No idea where CE
> or CC came from as far as you liking them and of
> course, you again bet against the horse you called
> the second coming.

Wow. Didn\'t realize I had to ramble all week about a horse before I was allowed to put a bet in on him. Thanks for the news.  Never mind that CC pattern was totally dark to me until yesterday as I didn\'t bet the Wood or even think about the horse until this past week.  I opened up the sheets and got a fresh look at CC and I liked him as a pretty obvious overlay.


>
> So I would worry less about what Beyer says.  He
> was on point, whether you understood it or not.
>
> Jim


Beyer\'s analysis of AD was no more in-depth than anything the grey-haired old lady that was sitting behind me said for 6+ hours.  I bet she cashed more tickets than he did.

[albatross]

Jimbo66, I didn\'t hear Leon Blu\'s comments but find it very telling. I agree with you and him on BBt. Until you mentioned it, I didn\'t realize his record with Derby Winners going forward, that might never be matched. I was always a big fan of RFL, not in TC races but overall, and think BBt has certainly taken his place. Let\'s face it, those two got very good stock, just not as many of them as TAP.  Is it possible that is the difference? Where they have more of a hands on approach. BBt has many assistants, but the horses are basically all in the same place, Ca. Until later in his career RFL had them all together, then sort of Ca. NY in the summer fall later in his career. I don\'t know the numbers under their care, but I expect TAP has two or three times the horses. I guess it all depends how you grade them, because TAP will leave the game with a higher net worth than about any trainer in history. To sum it up, if you have a top 3YO, and BBt will take him, why not.

[mjellish]

Sek,

No, you don\'t have to post your picks here in advance.  But if you don\'t you probably shouldn\'t talk about a Pick 4 after the first 3 races are completed as it is sort of red boarding. That\'s just my opinion.  But I don\'t doubt you had what you said and don\'t care If you hit a 50 cent ticket or $20 ticket.  I simply congradulated you. But Jimbo has a fair point IMO.

For what it\'s worth, I only red board my losses.  But there are a few people on this board that knew in advance that i was singling CE in the pick 4, and at least one who knows how much i was alive for.   If one of them wants to chime in i leave that up to them. Let\'s just say it hurt, but dem\'s da breaks.

[sekrah]

I\'ve red boarded plenty of my losses on here, including the total bath I took on Derby day.  Jimbo seems more butt-hurt that I landed on CC and didn\'t use AD.  For some reason he\'s stuck in a fairy tale world where I apparently declared AD the greatest horse that ever lived.  

I would have loved to live-posted all of my plays Saturday but playing on this forum took a backseat to me handicapping the races and enjoying the sights and sounds of my first Preakness.

Sorry about your luck with CE, that was definitely a tough one to take.

[jimbo66]

Sek,

You are full of misinformation and circular references all triple crown season.  You have talked out of both sides of your mouth for both the Derby and the Preakness.

Could care less who you allegedly landed on.  

The people here who read your 35 posts about AD before the Derby know what you said.  The 9 wasn\'t a 9, it was really a 4 on your numbers, neither was the other 9, so he had a perfect pattern, was the best horse, might be a freak, etc.etc.

But only had a 10% chance to win.

But you loved CC in the Preakness.  Off his pattern.  Despite questioning the figure that Irish War Cry got in the Wood, which by the way, if wrong, would change the figure for CC and make his \"pattern\" look different.

And of course, your wonderful post that Beyer, who is one of the creators of speed figures, doesn\'t understand why AD ran poorly.  Yes, he is clueless.  Perhaps you could teach him about your arbitrary changes to figures - he could perhaps incorporate it into his figures.  Or offer \"Sekrah figures\" as an alternative to \"beyer figures\".  Yes, HE is the clueless one.  Brilliant.

Things must be rough in your life if redboarding and criticizing Beyer, an icon in this game, are what you do for satisfaction.  Hopefully life becomes more fulfilling for you in the future.....