Classic Empire switching back to the wrong lead

[TempletonPeck]

I just watched the Arkansas Derby a few times, and noticed that a few jumps before the wire, Classic Empire switched back to his \'wrong\' lead.

Anyone make anything of that?

FWIW, it does not appear to me he did so in either the Holy Bull or the BC Juvenile.

[jerry]

I didn\'t notice that but what I did notice, and like, was his ability to adapt to a race scenario that was somewhat troubled.

[Airnate012]

I noticed it too. That was a big effort for him coming back off his issues. Will he go forward with 3 weeks rest? I wouldn\'t let the late lead change turn you off of him.

[BitPlayer]

I\'ve heard or read some speculation that he may have been responding to the swerving that Malagacy and Conquest Mo Money were doing.

[sekrah]

Per Mike Welsch, :24.02, :49.21, 1:02.03 and 1:16.87 in company this morning.

Yikes at that gallop out.

[mjellish]

Standard operating procedure with a Casse.  You were hoping to see 59 and change?

[sekrah]

5f fine is time...I\'m more concerned with after the finish. Nearly 15 second gallop out? Did they strangle him after the line?

Edit:  I\'m reading now that it was a 4f move.. Not terrible I guess.

[Wrongly]

They say it was only intended to be a 4F work, 1:02 in 4 1/2 - http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/221254/classic-empire-a-pro-in-four-furlong-move

[sekrah]

Yea, I just read that it was 4f.. Welsch initially tweeted:

Mike Welsch‏ @DRFWelsch  2h2 hours ago
 Classic Empire 5F 102.03 out 116.87 in company



Disregard.

[mjellish]

I agree not a strong gallop out, but Casse usually doesn\'t let them gallop out in final work before a race.  My guy got him from the short pole and got his last 1/4 in 24 flat with a gallop out in 13 and change.  Nothing real noteworthy one way or the other with this work.

I have to go back to my earlier post about this colt.  Knowing how CE has melted down in the pre-race before in front of lessor crowds, what do you do with him here?  Lets say you like him, you going to bet your money on him in the horizontals without seeing him live on the track before the race?  If you\'ve got a complicated vertical bet, are going to have enough time to see him live on the track and get your bet in before the gates open?

I have a lot of respect for my money and would find it very difficult to lay a dime for or against this colt without seeing him in the saddling area and the post parade.  

As the probable favorite, it matters and presents quite the conundrum.

Game is never easy...

[SoCalMan2]

I am curious how people can assess workout times (all the talk about Classic Empire\'s time in this thread) without knowing things like the weight of the exercise rider, runup, the path on the turn, wind, track speed.......shouldnt those factors affect workout times?  I recall that Larry Jones used to work out his own horses and he weighs at least 200 lbs I think.  An exerise rider might weigh 120.....have to think 80 lbs differential can affect the times...it just seems that with workouts, you need to go visually with how the horse looks and you cannot really make too much about time unless you have a lot more context that goes with the time.....or am I off in right field?

[mjellish]

IMO you make some good points SoCalMan.  For me, one of the biggest things about workouts is knowing that horses and trainers are individuals.  They don\'t all do it the same.  So to properly evaluate a work you have to know what does the trainer typically do with his stock, and what does that horse typically do in the morning.  

Take a horse like Always Dreaming.  Pletcher will let his horses run a bit in the morning and likes the rider to encourage or at least let his horses have a strong gallop out.  Always Dreaming has been a very good work horse down in Florida.  So if he would have shown up here and worked poorly this AM that would maybe mean something.  

Contrast that with a horse like J Boy who is pretty lazy in the morning.  If he were to have a relatively unnoteworthy final work that probably doesn\'t mean much.  On the other hand, if he were to suddenly show up in the morning and have a very fast final work doing it all on his own then that probably does mean something.

For CE, I guess the first thing to note is he worked when asked (he has refused to work before in the AM).  So that\'s a good thing for starters.  Casse usually doesn\'t let them do much the final work before the race, so I wasn\'t expecting this colt to wow anyone in his final work or his gallop out.

The other thing that no one really talks about is how these horses come out of their work is probably more important than the work itself.  So it really helps to know how they were galloping and acting in the morning before a work to see if anything changes afterwards.

Kentucky Derby is one of the best times of the year to learn about works if you don\'t have a private clocker.  It\'s one of the only times where the horses are under so much scrutiny that you can get a lot of information about how they are acting/feeling/doing in the mornings.  Hell, now days you can even watch them live on a cam while drinking your coffee in the morning.

[Airnate012]

I thought Always Dreaming looked as good if not better than he did in Florida. Went :59 and change, was never asked, big gallop out.

State of Honor looked strong too, comfortable, ears up, went :48 and change.

[mjellish]

My guy got AD first 1/4 in 24.33, last 1/4 in 23.9, 5F work time 59.8 with another 1/8th shading 13 on the gallop out.  Looks good on the watch.  He said AD was fighting the jock early though to be let loose to run, which is not ideal.

[Tavasco]

He did exactly that in Florida also. part of his routine?