Classic Empire switching back to the wrong lead

[johnnym]

Like I said I will see how is presents next week and see if he settles in.

[Chas04]

Sek - you think Always Dreaming won\'t bounce? How special do you think this horse is and how do you explain such terrible slow times in his last two races?

[sekrah]

Chas04 Wrote:
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> Sek - you think Always Dreaming won\'t bounce? How
> special do you think this horse is and how do you
> explain such terrible slow times in his last two
> races?

I think there\'s less of a chance with this horse to bounce than most horses with said pattern. There\'s a chasm between this horse\'s efforts and his actual talent level in those two early races. If I watched this one run those two 9s while being all-out, I\'d be more convinced a bounce was probable. That would mean he actually had the gobs of development in just a few months. A blind man could see that he was bottled up in both races.

This horse has been asked one time this year for his best and delivered without a flinch. This isn\'t the Devil May Care pattern where she quit in her first 3yo race and then wobbled down the stretch of the Bonnie Miss.

A single big effort in a prep race has tended to be better for Derby contenders than multiple big efforts.  Multiple big efforts have ruined many Pletcher chances, IMO.

[johnnym]

\"A single big effort in a prep race has tended to be better for Derby contenders than multiple big efforts. Multiple big efforts have ruined many Pletcher chances, IMO.\"

Such as??

[sekrah]

johnnym Wrote:
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> \"A single big effort in a prep race has tended to
> be better for Derby contenders than multiple big
> efforts. Multiple big efforts have ruined many
> Pletcher chances, IMO.\"
>
> Such as??


Materiality, Carpe Diem, Verrazano, Gemologist, Dunkirk...


His horses with single good efforts in their 3yo campaigns have run the closest near their tops in the Derby... Destin, Danza, Revolutionary...

[trwhis2]

Danza and Revolutionary didn\'t run those tops at GP.

Materiality did and went from a -2 in the Florida Derby to a 2 in KY.

[ruthlessman]

I couldn\'t agree more.
Those 2 9\'s were jogging.
His workouts the past couple of months were similar to todays workout. The more I see this horse the more I think he may be special.

[Niall]

Lads - have we not seen this before? Wondering what he got out of those races? Paid workouts that they were... The giant TAP jump at umm GP, and now you get 3-1 to find out. I think he is creating value elsewhere. Florida Derby was a joke, what a bad field really including the misplaced decent horses. I hope Gunnevera runs well and am rooting for him and JJ. When did Brooklyn Boys ever buy a good horse at auction? So many intangibles to NOT wager on this horse at 3-1. So, if he drifts up late to say 6-1, I will use defensively

[mjellish]

3-1?  20 horse field?  Classic Empire, Irish War Cry...

Come on man...

[mjellish]

Use defensively how?

If you\'re in the horizontals its too late.  In the verticals his win odds have nothing to do with it.  He\'s either 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc. and his win ods have nothing to do with how you play him the vwrticals.  How do pass at 3-1, and use defensively at 6-1?

[P-Dub]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Use defensively how?
>
> If you\'re in the horizontals its too late.  In the
> verticals his win odds have nothing to do with it.
>  He\'s either 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice,
> etc. and his win ods have nothing to do with how
> you play him the vwrticals.  How do pass at 3-1,
> and use defensively at 6-1?

He meant to post this on another board. They like to use half the field \"defensively\" over there.

Steely Dan was a great show.

I think this horse offers little value. There are other much better horses to use next Saturday.

[Niall]

Mjellish - clues to price can hopefully be found in the early (Fri) wagering and the Oaks/Drby dbl will pays. However, I think this is all folly because of the AD drum beat getting louder from various news outlets. As for using defensively, maybe the wrong word. I might key him up/down in some small exactas with some longer horses. It is the Derby after all and I am ok with $250 exactas.

Now that Malagacy/Battalion Runner are officially out and Thunder Snow/LAL/Sonneteer are in, and this Girvin (BTW, Hovday was particularly hard on Sharp being so evasive) issue has been exposed, it surely moves the conversation. Especially considering the closers. Isnt the \"stone cold closer getting more distance\" one of the worst angles there is?

Whoever is interested, the draw has been moved to 11:00am on Wednesday. I mention this because those in the Saratoga area who may be going to the draw party at Embassy Suites will have to find another reason to celebrate. Still, I went last year and it was a great kickoff to the festivites. Anyone in the area and going give a shout.

As always, good luck all!

[mjellish]

I don\'t think these videos even compare to how AD is currently working and galloping at Churchill.  He is far more rank than he ever was in Florida.  The two video links posted are nothing like he is currently working and galloping.  Some may try to twist that around by saying it\'s a good thing he \"wants to run or do more.\"  But that is flat wrong IMO.  It\'s a good thing when horses listen to their riders, especially when they are about to run 1 1/4.

Public is obsessed with final time of works.  Lot of buzz around this colt right now.  Assuming neutral draws for the top 4 choices I could see AD going off favored at around 9/2 by post time.  Who knows?  Maybe he is all that and deserves it.  But he is training differently at Churchill than he was down in Florida and seems unsettled to me.

[jack72906]

Materiality also had a horrible draw. Thought he ran well in spite of it.

[Fairmount1]

Excellent info MJ.  My apologies on my post saying similar re: AD being the favorite potentially.  I did not see this until after I posted.  

If you are saying he is \"training different\" and not settled, it makes you wonder what might be different in Ky than Florida.  Must just be the weather (sarcasm).  I\'m inclined to still toss him altogether from the top two spots in my wagering.

On an unrelated note, Syndergaard at $.30 just had a horrible trip last night didn\'t he?  Hmmmm......