Derby 128

[kev]

Total throw out\'s:

These horses are just too slow for this years group. Even if they have nice lines.

LUSTY LATIN-OCEAN SOUND-WILD HORSES--IT\'SALLINTHECHASE.

These horses are also throw out\'s but have the fast numbers maybe to win it.

MAYAKOVSKY--Even if he runs in here. He should have shown alot better last time out, but he bounce 3.2 points off that first race of the year and he also bore out, no way.
WINWARD PASSAGE--Another one who might not run, but if he does get in. The big jump this horse made two back looks to be the end of his line for a bit, and he doesnt scare me one bit.
PRIVATE EMBLEM--Broke threw the two year old top of the 7.2 two back (6.0) and then jump big time last race out. Little over two weeks rest is not enough for him to run it back.
CAME HOME--First night i got the TG numbers for the race he was the first horse i made my mind up on. To toss him out. Very bad looking line, enough said. Oh wait and maybe he will be under 8-1 which will make my ex\'s a little better.
PROUD CITIZEN--Everyone keeps talking about can Lukas do it again like in 99\'derby?? NOPE at best i see this horse running is another 4.1
ESSENCE OF DUBAI--When will they ever learn to start bring their horses over here and running them a bit. Unless hes a superstar i dont see this horse moving 1 or 2 pts to be a factor in here.
JOHANNESBURG--This horse might be lower odds than ESSENCE, which is crazy. This horses top at two was a 6.1 at best he could run a 3.2 and might hang on for a little share.
WAR EMBLEM--I\'ve got two words for this hoss........\"BOUNCE CITY\"

Now here are some horses i don\'t really know what to do with them so they will get a bigger play in my ex\'s than the upper horses.

BLUE BURNER--Fast in his last two races bounce a bit in his last which might throw up the red flag on him, but at a long price and line i\'m lost.
BUDDHA--Again another i\'m lost on. I really don\'t like his line at all but he might be able to pair up the last number and make him minor share hoss in here.
HARLAN\'S HOLIDAY--The fav. in this race. Which might be 4-1. Great pattern at two and at 3yr he move forward in his 3rd start of the year running the 0.2, bounced 2pts last race. What to do??? For me i\'m playing him lightly in my ex\'s thats it. Hard read for me.

Now my hard hitters. These horses will get big money in my ex\'s

MEDAGLIA D\'ORO--Lightly race horse, and the only real number i can see for him running is another 2.2 thats it. Nice line also.
REQUEST FOR PAROLE--Nice overall line. The only knock on him is i thik all them 2.2\'s is too fast too soon for him. Then again at 30-1 a must play in my ex\'s.
EASY GRADES--Another lightly race horse. pairs up the 3.1\'s and at best he could run another 3.1, but your also getting over 25-1 on him.
PERFECT DRIFT--Hes my second choice in here i will have a few bucks to win on him. Solid moving line, not many big jumps, has the 5 weeks rest coming up to it. I see a 0.2 or a 3.0 out of him in here. At 15-1 and up hes a must use for the top 3.

My top hoss:

SAALAND--Nice moving 2yr line. Jump 4.1 pts. some might say thats a big jump. He had 3 1/2 months off to do that in also. Pair\'s up his last two numbers. Most might see another 3.1 coming, not at all i see a 0.3 coming into the race sat. Why?? UNBRIDLED horses move 3.3 pts from two to three hes already went past that. So hes moving on to the next jump they make that being 3pts. Other than that hes just the type of horse i\'ve seen over the years on TG numbers, SAARLAND will be there.

[kev]

I guess everyone is seeing it like i do uh???

This is what everyone needs to do, is to post their picks BEFORE the derby. I don\'t want any trash talking about how they had the derby winner and it wasn\'t posted on this site. Another thing is don\'t knock someones picks if your not going to post your choice on here.

[Michael D.]

Relax for a few days mate.... some very important information still to come out yet (like the actual field and post positions)

[kev]

Post Positions??? Whats that has to do with anything in the derby?? Serious think about it. They have the whole stretch to run down, how are you going to know which horese are going to be wide in the first turn?? Hell, how are we going to know whose going to be wide in the final turn. I mean your saying you don\'t have a horse yet, you have to wait till the PP draw to pick one out??

[tread]

Kevin, I tend to agree with you here.  This is one race where I think the advantage of an inside post possibly getting an inside trip is nullified by the rough trips and potential box-ins.  A pace analysis may be helpful in determining paths, but I think having free range on the outside is actually an advantage here.  Monarchos, IInk, Menifee, Charamatic, Fusaichi all had double digit posts.

[MO]

Prior to 1995, only 3 horses in the history of the Derby ever won from the auxillary gate (post 15 and higher): 1929 Clyde Van Dusen wired the field from post 20 on a muddy track; 1982 Gato Del Sol from post 18; 1984 Swale post 15. Thunder Gulch had post 16 I believe.
Menefee didn\'t win. Niether did Invisible Ink.
In other words, less than 5% winners from the auxillary gate win.
MO

[MO]

I should revise that.

For the first 40 years, the field was never big enough to use the aux. gate.

Since 1915, at least 30 runnings didn\'t have a big enough field, so its more like 12% winners from the aux. gate.

MO

[derby1592]

This data is only from recent Derbies so the sample sizes are small and I was forced to group the data into three categories rather than by individual post position. The following shows how horses starting from the indicated posts fared with regards to ground loss.

Posts 1-6: average ground loss was 2 lengths

Posts 7-12: avg loss was 3.7 lengths

Posts 13-20: avg loss was 4.9 lengths

On average front runners save about 1.5 lengths compared to other running types breaking from a similar post.

So post position certainly does appear to matter with regards to ground loss even with the long run to the first turn.  

Of course, this does not factor in the potential for running into traffic on the first turn from the inside posts in a 20 horse field. That may counter some of the advantage with regards to ground loss.

I personally would rather see my horse save ground and take its chances in just about any race, particularly turf races which also tend to have large, bunched-up fields and tight turns. A ground saving trip on the turf is usually the difference between winning and losing. I see no reason to change that thinking for the Derby. In fact, if you dig up the statistics (I did not but I recall seeing them not long ago) you will find that more winners have come from post 1 than any other. I don\'t think that is just a coincidence.

However, in the PP draw on Wed morning you will see most of the trainers avoiding the inside posts. Not a very wise move based on this data.

Chris

P.S. In response to another thread:

If I owned an off-the-pace Derby horse, Jerry Bailey would be my top choice to ride it. He is the best. No comparison. Check out his rides on Tejano Run, Blumin Affair, Grindstone and Sea Hero.

If I were betting on an off-the-pace Derby horse, Eddie D. would be my top choice to ride it. He is almost as good as Bailey and he does not hurt your odds. He is great at saving ground and waiting for a hole and then hitting that hole without hesitation when that is what it takes to win a big race. He is a Perfect fit for his mount in this year\'s Derby (pun intended).

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

derby1592:

Nice in theory, but the reality is that since 1960 post 1 2w 1pl 3sh. Last 20 post positions with field size:

01 16-13-8/17
00 15-2-14/19
99 16-18-10/19
98 3-13-8/15
97 5-4-13/13
96 15-4-10/19
95 16-14-15/19
94 8-7-13/14
93 6-5-13/19
92 10-4-16/18
91 5-15-10/16
90 8-13-9/15
89 10-13-12/15
88 11-17-1/17
87 3-14-16/17
86 1-4-9/16
85 10-6-2/13
84 15-19-14-20/20
83 10-5-20/20
82 18-8-10/19

Post position doesn\'t really matter that much. The trick is for the jock to get a ground saving trip from wherever and pray not to get trapped when the real running begins.

[tread]

Thanks for the data bdh, 5 of the last 7 winners from the aux gate?  The trend is your friend!

[MO]

If my math is correct, thats 340 starters in 20 years. Of those, 15 hit the board. Translation is only 4% hit the board from aux. gate.

When starting from the aux. gate, there is a gap between both gates equal to 1 stall. So breaking from post 15 is really breaking from post 16 and so forth.

MO

[MO]

I couldn\'t agree more. Good job!

MO

[Michael D.]

If Mayakovsky runs (which we don\'t know yet), and if War Emblem, Medaglia, and Proud Citizen draw the inside posts (which we don\'t know yet), the pace will no doubt be faster than it otherwise would.......Betting Saarland and not concerned with the pace???

Personally, I have Saarland from a bet out in vegas in february, and I think there would be a world of difference between a 45.2 and a 46.4 pace. Think the post doesn\'t matter? Ask the trainers last year who saw their speed horses line up next to each other on the inside. I am 100% sure they would tell you that the draw matters.

[HP]

Thanks for the data. I think the outside posts are a big negative for early speed types. Otherwise not such a big deal. If I loved the 20 horse (and he wasn\'t the early speed type) I would play him, but I\'d be lying if I said I wouldn\'t think about it.

I read the Sports Illustrated on Coolmore this AM. In contrast to others here, it just convinced me even more that those horses have no shot. EoDubai worries me a little more. They\'ve eliminated more of the obvious prep errors (the earlier ship has to help, for one thing). HP

[nunzio]

Mayakovsky has no business inthe derby, he should run in the Withers this weekend at AQU. He would e part o the pace for 3/4\'s of a mile but thats it.  Saarland IMHO doesn\'t have the turn of foot I like to see so
I doubt I\'ll even have him on any tickets.
I agree the post positions dictate how the race is LIKELY to be run so I\'m hoping my horse (Buddah) draws between 3 & 8.

Nunzio