Derby 128

[tread]

LOL, Mark, you\'ve really got it backwards here.  This is the proper way to look at it.  In the last 20 years, 62 horses have started in the aux gate.  15 of those finished in the money.  Thats 24%, a much higher % than you would expect just based on probability.  Of the 278 starters that started in the main gate, 45 of them finished in the money.  That\'s 16%

auxst  ITM     Year
-------------------
3   1   01
5   1   00
5   2   99
1   0   98
0   0   97
5   1   96
5   2   95
0   0   94
5   0   93
4   1   92
2   1   91
1   0   90
1   0   89
3   1   88
3   1   87
2   0   86
0   0   85
6   2   84
6   1   83
5   1   82
      
62   15   0.241935484

[MO]

That was posted before my AM cuppa tea. I stand corrected.
MO

[MO]

Since I am leaning towards Came Home and Saarland (in that order), I would like to see Came Home draw post 10 and Saarland post 5 or 6.

MO

[TGJB]

All I have to say is Victory ____ing Gallop, and Chris ____ing Lincoln.

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

TGJB:

What was VG\'s original post position before the re-draw?

[MO]

I still think Victory Gallop would have beat that garbadge can from New Mexico had he changed leads in the stretch.  MO

[TGJB]

We were originally in about 4 stalls, RQ was out a couple more.

[Michael D.]

Who decided to use Alex Solis???  Did you happen to notice the change in figures right after he was replaced???

Forget the post, or changing leads, you guys had the worst big race jockey to ride in the 90\'s

[MO]

On many trips to California, I could not help but notice what a huge following Alex has out there.

Never made any sense to me because I could not seem to cash a bet with him. ( I used to have the same problem with Jorge Chavez).

Then I bet him on Dare and Go the day he beat Cigar. I guess it all evens out in the end.

In conclusion, a jockey once told me that their are 3 ways to ride a race: the way the trainer wants you to ride; the way the jockey wants to ride; and the way the horse wants to run. The horse always gets his way.

MO

[Michael D.]

how strange, I also had Dare and Go over Cigar, also had him in another Grade 1 (wire to wire, can\'t remember which one)... but to be honest, in the end, I am not even. I bet Captain Bodgit, Aptitude, Victory Gallop every time he ran (including a big exacta over RQ, and huge bets in the Travers and B.C.), the Rahy miler who lost by a nose in the B.C. (can\'t remember his name).... I could go on and on. the fact is Solis simply does not get the job done when the money is on the line.....  

back to the Derby.... thoughts out there on Medaglia??? saw some quotes from baffert, he seems to think frankel has the horse. also, frankel seems very confident.... has the figures, and has the breeding, yet nobody seems to have him on top. i am not sure what to do with the horse

[MO]

Yeah?, Well I coulda used your company that day in the press box. It was like a funeral home and I was the only one laughing! Cashed a huge ticket and felt guilty all at the same time.

Frankle strikes me as someone who wouldn\'t get cocky for no good reason, and he\'s getting cocky. But sooner or later you gotta take a stand. Given the statistics of this race, he ain\'t gonna win, and, he will be an underlay at post time.

MO

P.S.  I had Silver Charm; didn\'t like Aptitude, (but you beat me there), and VG went on to be horse of the year, so, it does even out, right?

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Trainers comments about others\' horses is laughable. Shug was raving about Nakoma in Florida just before the FOY or FL Derby. He hasn\'t lifted a hoof. Most of it is BS and should be viewed with skepticism.

[derby1592]

bdsheets,

Admittedly winners have come from outside posts frequently over the last 5 years but I think that was more a matter of the best horse simply drawing an outstide post and overcoming it with ability and/or a good ride (as you pointed out).

However all of those recent outside post winners went wide early with the exception of FuPeg and they all earned by far the top figure in their race (indicating that they were much the best). Note that the only recent winner that drew an inside post was Real Quiet and he hugged the rail early and actually won the Derby without even earning the fastest figure (as JB so painfully recalls). I think post position does matter, particularly if several horses are evenly matched as is likely to be the case this year.

I doubt that you will see anybody choosing to be out in the auxilliary gate in the PP draw tomorrow unless they have to and for good reason despite the recent success. An outside post is not a show-stopper but it certainly does not help a horses chances.

Chris

[HP]

Thunder Gulch got a fantastic trip from out there. It can actually help. HP

[MO]

He had help.