Exaggerator

[ringato3]

I know it is a bit early and we still have the PP draw, but I have to say from a pure TG perspective, Exaggerator is an absolute standout.  I am not \"old school sheets\" where a number is a number regardless of trip, distance, surface, bias, etc.etc.  I believe all numbers have to be looked at through the lens of all those factors.  

But that said, Exaggerator is co-fastest this year.  Has a beautiful sheet.  9 races over the 2 seasons and gone backwards exactly once.  A solid 2-year old top, followed by 3 good races this year.  He is 3 points faster this year, but is by a late developing sire whose progeny develop 5 points on average from 2 to 3.  Spacing is fine and you get a hall of fame jockey who has won 3 derbies.  Price not great, but not favored.  Maybe 6-1 or so.

Yes, the new top was a on a wet track but he has run fast on a dry track too and really is sort of neutral on wet track breeding.

Which contender looks as good as he does on sheets?

Rob

[Silver Charm]

I got off this horse before the Santa Anita Derby because I didn\'t think he could finish. Boy was I wrong. One of the things I liked about him before when I was playing him is he could run on the rail and save ground. Which he did. Last race was the first in a route he took the overland trip. He also skimmed the rail in the Saratoga Special. Desormeoux won the Derby 3 times with all sorts of trips. Looks to be the goods

[jbelfior]

Rob:
I have a big play on him in Pools 3 and 4. Be careful. I had the Florida Panthers last night. Only I can lose a sports bet like that.

The way i\'m going lately, if I walk into IHop they\'ll be out of pancakes.

But yes, i agree.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[cubfan0316]

ihop, the home of the 1 legged waitresses

[Tale Of Ekati]

His sheet is a thing of beauty.
He\'s won inside of horses, outside of horses, and through horses. Check out his Saratoga Special, he just bulled his way through.
He\'s won on the lead, stalking, and obviously closing from Van Nuys.
He\'s won at four different distances at four different racetracks.

[miff]

Interesting story. Had Exaggerator not run big in the SA Derby, he was to be taken out of derby picture. Connections were very concerned about what appeared to be possible distance limitations( breeding says otherwise)

Then there\'s a comment made by Kent D pre SA derby,that Exaggerator will never beat Nyquist.

Figs do say he\'s ok wet or dry, me thinks he\'s better wet.

[ajkreider]

His record is also 4-0-2-1 routing on a fast track.

[ringato3]

Ajkreider,

This is a speed figure board, isn\'t it?

His wet and dry track figures are commensurate.   His losses on dry tracks included several against a horse nobody has beaten yet.

Can\'t argue with Miff in that he might be a bit better on a wet track, but not because he has lost to Nyquist a few times on dry tracks.

Rob

[ajkreider]

Yeah, this is a figure board.  But whether you think his sheet looks fantastic, or just good, depends on what you think produced that top.

What is clear from the sheet is that his best figures at 2 were on wet tracks, and his best figure at three is on a wet track.  If you conclude the track conditions moved him up, (and moved others back), then that gives the sheet a very different read.

[brucculeri]

What about Outwork?  Modest move forward in the Wood.  Hot sire with Empire maker on the bottom.  The price will be square.

[big18741]

The two expected morning line favorites come in with back to back races with a BO(Nyquist)and BI(Exaggerator)

It may be nothing since Street Sense went into his Derby with some drifting in both his 2007 preps but it is something to think about.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Take a look at Alysheba\'s sheet

[boardedup]

I think Outwork is interesting.  The tougher of the two speed horses, I expect him to dictate terms on the front end set soft fractions, and have a chance.  Certainly will use underneath.

Obviously post position will play a huge role in maintaining this opinion

[ringato3]

I would say that it is extremely unlikely that Outwork gets to the front ahead of Danzig Candy.  Danzig has shown he is a need the lead and Pletcher has been letting outwork sit just off the pace.

Rob

[boardedup]

You\'re likely right.  I was thinking more so that after the SA Derby they would try to keep Danzig Candy more under wraps early and sit off outwork.

But DC is faster and does seem to need the lead.