Exaggerator

[jerry]

Nyquist\'s BO concerns me more than Exaggerator\'s BI. Nyquist was leg weary. I\'m looking for him to fold up around the 1/8th pole.

[jerry]

Still not sold on his Wood figure. Slowest Wood ever and he beat a maiden by 1/2 length.

[jerry]

DC doesn\'t rate kindly. He was rank SA Derby day because of the crowd. My guess is he leaves his race in the paddock.

[ringato3]

Tale of Ekati

U are in the wrong spot for a \"key race\" discussion.  And I believe Frank D is a self professed Kool aid drinker.

I get your point and agree completely.  An also ran in the SA derby sets a track record next out against some OK horses (Baffert horse supposed to be good there)

There is antidotal proof again this year that the California 3 year olds are an extremely strong group and florida again no good.  The California maiden, tripping out or not, almost beats Outwork in the wood.   Nyquist destroys an Allegedly faster Mohaymen on a track that Mo prepped twice on while Nyquist shipped cross country and had just a 7 furlong sprint as bottom going into a 1 1/8 race.   Even the Baffert 5th stringer destroying a group in the CD sprint race Saturday night.  .

Personally, going to likely have my bet centered around 2 horses, in horizontal wagers, pressing exaggerator and saving with Danzig Candy.  I think the former is the most likely winner for reasons I already posted more than once and DC is a interesting price horse.  And both are west coast.  (No dig at TG figs for California as TG has exaggerator fast and DC 2 back pretty fast.

[ringato3]

Toppled,

This is not an attack post, but that is a one-dimensional read in a game that has about 27 dimensions to it. I would call it \"old school sheet reading\" and I am replying to this post because Exaggerator\'s sheet is a perfect example of what I was discussing with TGJB in my post the other day where I said you need to look at how the numbers were earned.

So, Exaggerator has 3 races this year.  First a 7 furlong sprint, which may have some correlation to how he runs at 1 1/4 miles (but not a direct one).  Then he goes two turns and runs an extremely strong middle half into a fast race where the winner wires.  Those that look at internals and compression figs had him running faster than TG/Beyer/Rags etc.  Then he goes 1 1/8 on a sloppy track where he sits dead last while you have a runaway speed horse setting a suicidal pace and he swoops by them all and draws off.

So, you have decided to zero in on the ONE factor of a wet track and call it a wet track top.  Not the extreme pace that set up the race for a horse sitting dead last.  Not the extra distance helping him.  And not just ordinary NORMAL development for a healthy spring 3 year old (just 2 points from his 2 year old top) and this is a horse with 7 or 8 races with a healthy line having only one race where he didn\'t pair or go forward.

Exaggerator 3 races this also reflect the trouble with pattern reading in general.  How do you analyze a pattern with races at 3 different distances, one on a sloppy track, one with an extreme race flow edge based on pace and with a race flow disadvantage based on pace.  

Rob

[Focus959]

Dry track route performances:

1. Breeders Futurity: middle move to the 1/8...flattened out
2. BC Juvenile: middle move to the 1/8...flattened out
3. San Felipe: middle move (up the rail) to the 1/8...flattened out

Muddy/sloppy performances:
1. Delta: took command early into the race; held sway. He\'s not going to show that speed ever again
2. SA Derby: per Kent: \"felt like he had cleats on\" in a a race where DC freaked and folded and Mor Spirit was on ice skates.

My take is he is far back early in a moderate pace, and makes a middle move to the 1/4 pole and flattens out on an 80 degree DRY track. Overbet, underlay and a toss.

[big18741]

DC rated just fine in his 2nd,3rd and 4th starts.

You can\'t assume he was rank because of the crowd.Because of the weather only 27,821 showed up on Santa Anita Derby day.

He ran his best race in the San Felipe when attendance was 27,259.

He broke his maiden opening day Dec 26th when they had their biggest crowd of the meet 44,873.

[TGJB]

First two starts this year, on fast tracks, were lifetime tops. Before his next, would you have said he preferred wet?

[Tale Of Ekati]

Bingo!

[miff]

Are Exaggerator fans concerned that he has been beaten 3 times by Nyquist, twice by Brody\'s Cause and traded decisions with Mor Spirit and Danzig Candy.


...... and only at like 9/2, with a few of 10-20-1shots with a punchers chance?

[ringato3]

Mike,

Fair point, for sure.

But as I am sure you know, horses develop this time of their 3 year old seasons as they are maturing.  I lean to reading Exaggerator as a nice developing horse, gradually getting better and I love his 3 year old season.  7 furlong sprint, middle move route conditioning run, bingo 3rd time out.  

If you are against Nyquist, like I am, you have to read him as a bit flat-lined and a bit of an early developer.  I am not so sure on that read, but I am going with that.  I can\'t take the favorite at 7/2 with the 6th or 7th fastest horse, betting him on the come.

As for losing to Brody\'s Cause, they were 2 year old races.  Night and day to 3 year old races.

just not a Mor Spirit fan, as you know as you/I went back forth on him 2 months ago.   BAck then you liked him.  I think he is grindy and NOT the typical BAffert type horse.  I like betting Baffert with horses that have early run, where he gets them to stay the distance.  Wouldn\'t shock me if Mor Spirit won, and I may use him as a \"C\" off of giving him a mulligan for the wet track race.  

as for Danzig Candy, I have to use him. I don\'t like getting wired by a horse I know has talent and will make the lead in a relatively paceless 20 horse race with a horse who figures 20-1 in multi-race bets.  He may run off, he may not get the distance, but he is a good gamble.

Rob

[toppled]

Rob,
    I don\'t view your post as an attack.  Obviously, we have very different opinions on how to interpret the data & apply it to this race.  That\'s fine.  I\'m always open to listening to another opinion. Right now neither one of us knows if either one of us is right. Any interpretation at this point is just an opinion until after they run the race, and sometimes even when we\'re right, we\'re still wrong when the official sign is posted.  The game can be pretty humbling.
   It would get pretty boring if everyone around here interpreted the data the same way.  Even though the discussion centers around numbers, you\'re right. there are a lot of variables that go into each of our handicapping, and no 2 races ever are handicapped the same way.

[miff]

Rob,

Exaggerator\'s San Felipe would concern me if he was my top choice, never should have blown second,a bit more than just saying he got wired. As for his big run in the SA Derby, seen far too many explosive slop winners that are not repeated on a dry surface,though that applies more to run off the screen speed horses.


Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

I am a bit worried he is better on wet tracks.

But of all the people on this board, very surprised to see you say that the end of the San Felipe, losing 2nd, would worry you (if you liked him).  You are fond of saying \"race track fast\" or pointing out how much better a horse ran that somebody that beat him (because of things like trip or pace).  Exaggerator middle moved with a sort of dumb/crazy harness type run in the SAn Felipe.  Then tried the winner and got leg weary late and got passed by a complete suck-up move by Mor Spirit.  To me eye, he ran WAY better in that race than Mor Spirit (not even close IMO).  Much worse trip, middle moving from last into a decent pace.  Mor Spirit just sat back and made one move later after Exaggerator made his run.

Two things bother me about Exaggerator.  He MAY be better on a wet track (hard to say for sure either way, but could be).  And the relative price in a race that I think is pretty wide open.  He figures 6-1 or so, possibly a tad shorter.  I have a view the race is particularly wide open this year, so in that case 6-1 is a bit light.  While I think Exaggerator is the better horse and more likely winner, if Mor Spirit is 15-1 and Exaggerator is 6-1, not sure Exaggerator is that much better.

Rob

[TempletonPeck]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DC rated just fine in his 2nd,3rd and 4th starts.
>
> You can\'t assume he was rank because of the
> crowd.Because of the weather only 27,821 showed up
> on Santa Anita Derby day.
>
> He ran his best race in the San Felipe when
> attendance was 27,259.
>
> He broke his maiden opening day Dec 26th when they
> had their biggest crowd of the meet 44,873.

If by \"rate\" you mean he didn\'t run off, then he rated, but in fairness his line in those races says \"speed ... set pace\" so I don\'t really see any reason to think he will not lead/fight for it.