Rebel

[JEB]

Nice big field in the Rebel Stakes on Saturday.

With horses like Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews drawing wide, I think that this race definitely is interesting.

Discreetness at the 12/1 ML looks very good. His figs are comparable and he is much longer. Drawing the four hole is a good post. All of the horses with similar figs are 7/2 or lower on the ML.

[Fairmount1]

Doubt I play the Rebel as I think this is a real interesting field and race for Derby Contenders to sort themselves out.  

But the one you mentioned is interesting.  Spoke with Fires after the Ky Jockey Club race won by Airoforce.  I asked him why Discreetness scratched that day and he said it was simple, he thought the field was too tough.  He told me to bet him in the Springboard Mile where he won a photo that I still think he lost to SBN.  Ran great again at Oaklawn and then last time had no shot with the post.  

Fires didn\'t even think this was his best Derby contender.  He had a horse lose to Airoforce first out that he was very high on but I don\'t think he has returned anywhere since the first of the year.  

Can\'t wait to see this race Saturday.

[big18741]

Looks like the two Asmussen horses woke up once they got away from the Fairgrounds.

I don\'t know about any of these being major factors in May but Madtap on short rest is the one I\'m most interested in.

Tough to bet him given the entry and the quick turnaround but if he continues to improve in the Rebel he\'s at least in the conversation.

Discreetness looks good on paper but he\'s giving 5 to 7 lbs to some of these and it\'s anybody\'s guess if Court will get over to the rail and save ground on both turns.

American Dubai looks like the one who could move forward but the trainer #\'s aren\'t very good.

Ralis could be first or last.

Cupid figures to improve given the works,timing and Baffert but in a big field like this he could find lots of trouble as the favorite.

This one is a real puzzle.

[Agastache]

Memory doesn\'t all serve me well, but Asmussen\'s entry reminds me a bit of Nehro, who was underwhelming in several starts before waking up at Oaklawn and becoming a factor on the Derby trail and the Derby itself.  Bears watching.

[Al Caught Up]

That was before Joe Drape discovered the hole in his foot.

[Al Caught Up]

\'His\' being Nehro, not Drape...

[TGJB]

Nice.

[miff]

Speaking of Drape, whats the under and over on a negative racing article being published in the NY Times before the derby.

[toppled]

Bombs away with #6 Siding Spring.  Ran OK #s as 2yo, needed last where he showed too much early speed, decent post, in light at 115.

[Tavasco]

Big, I like your insights. Rarely, but occasionally, I opt for keeping it simple;

2015 1st Bob Baffert American Pharoah (Consensus Favorite)

2014 1st Bob Baffert Hoppertunity (Dubious but improving)

2013 3rd Bob Baffert Den\'s Legacy (14/1 - overlooked by bettors)
.........5th Bob Baffert Super Ninety Nine (flopped as favorite)

2012 1st Bob Baffert Secret Circle (even money favorite)

2011 1st Bob Baffert The Factor (was a ? to get the distance)

2010 1st Bob Baffert Lookin At Lucky (Highly Rated)

We don\'t know yet how good Cupid is. We do know he was attractive enough to bring $900K @ auction by arguably the best scouting combine in North America. His last may have been vs maidens and he sure lost a lot of ground but doesn\'t he have the look of an improving colt that is still learning. The hood suggests the same. Another, like Mor Spirit, without a burst, but I have to believe Mr Baffert is in it to win it. My confidence in BB trumps my other considerations.

[ajkreider]

Respect Baffert as much as anyone.  He doesn\'t ship for fun and Cupid has been working great.  But there\'s no way I\'m taking 7/2 on a horse that just broke his maiden on try 3 (against a very suspect group), and now faces 13 horses including stakes winners over this strip. Would rather take stabs with Discreetness or Cherry Wine at 12-1.

All of which practically guarantees Cupid the win.

[jp702006]

If you could actually get 7/2 on Cupid, I would take a stab. He probably goes much lower than that though. I\'m going to key the Asmussen entry. Hopefully get 5/1 or better. I\'ll key them over the 4,5,10. Good luck!

Patrick

[JEB]

I agree. Taking a stand against Cupid is probably guaranteeing that he runs away with this. You cannot argue with what Baffert has accomplished in this race but that will also guarantee that Cupid will get bet down and he is one of the slower in the field. He has to make a big jump up and I cannot take short odds if that needs to happen. Saying that, I am not writing him off for the derby. If he moves up a couple of points here(not a big move) and a couple in the Arkansas Derby, I would love his pattern.

I think that this has been one of the best prep races on the trail this year. Big field with several that you can make a case for.

I think that the fav\'s have warts. Some are slow on figure, some drew outside, some coming back on short rest off a big top, or already big development from 2yo top. Out of that group(Asmussen entry, Cupid, Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews) I think that I like Whitmore the most. Hate the post but he was pretty fast as a 2yo, paired it, and then went forward.

Lastly, what do individuals think of Ralis. Not crazy with how he ran at two and just starting now at three makes me wonder about the fitness coming into this. However, trainer/jockey combo gets my attention.

[johnnym]

I am as guilty as anybody looking for a bomber to play and there is a horse in the Rebel that intrigues me a bit.
Cutacorner has a win over this surface at this distance. Prior to his last trip he had a nice forward looking pattern. Then in his last out he gets pinched and is pulled up.. Would he of moved forward who knows. Needless to say he is a fresh horse coming in and at 117 lbs with a new jock. Being in the 9 hole concern about ground loss but at 30-1 ML with an excuse last out I may just take a shot.

Good Luck today

[Old Mr. Boston]

Taking my shot with American Dubai. He was the only horse to be up on the fast pace in the Southwest and still be around at the wire. A little improve and a more patient ride and maybe I catch big balloons....Ken