Rebel

[richiebee]

JEB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Lastly, what do individuals think of Ralis. Not
> crazy with how he ran at two and just starting now
> at three makes me wonder about the fitness coming
> into this. However, trainer/jockey combo gets my
> attention.

This individual thinks Ralis has a fascinating TG page. On closing weekend at
the Spa he humbled a weak field in the Hopeful. His TG # that day, in early
September of his 2YO campaign, was faster than anyone in the Rebel save one
has heretofore run.

Enigmatically, in his six 2YO races away from Saratoga, Ralis managed nothing
better than a TG 11 (sorry for the data leak).

As I semi- facetiously told Frank \"Frankie Rainbow\" D, I hope this one turns
up at the Travers with some dirty form.

[big18741]

I\'m groping here but ended up on Ralis.
You\'d think the connections send from the rail(after the Donworth debacle).

If Siding Spring and American Dubai are content to stalk today the pace could be moderate.Both connections talked about getting more patient rides after the Southwest.

So maybe Ralis clears and hangs on?

[FrankD.]

I\'ll take that scenario!

Note to Sr Bee - the rainbow ended very early today for MOI.

[belmont3]

Shopping at Woolworth\'s in the Rebel:

5 & 10

[miff]

......Baffert tough ombré!...SBN ugly trip.

[ringato3]

Mike

Baffert the best, especially with 3 year olds.  Can\'t argue that.

A couple things on the race

1.  The winner very hard to play at 5/2.  Those that had him didn\'t get paid right for a maiden breaker that broke his maiden against an awful bunch to boot.

2.  That said, bred to be any kind.  

3.  Not sure I am going to be as forgiving as you for SBN.  Bad trip for sure, but didn\'t see run when he was clear.

4.  He doesn\'t get out of the gate well.   Two races in a row.   Desth in a big field if Baffert doesn\'t get it corrected.

5.  I think he ran very well.  The figure he gets on TG likely won\'t reflect how well as he was 1w/1w.  But he broke several lengths slow rushed up into a quick first quarter.  Set a pace faster than older horses ran an hour earlier are rhe same distance.   Green as hell at the top of the stretch, looked done, the. Dug in and was pulling away again late.   Impressive.

6.  Final time a bit faster than older handicap horses ran at the same distance although that field had question marks, including the winner, although thr winner certainly had back figures and got a 5 or 6 wide trip around the second turn (also lost ground into first turn without needing to - bravo.  Ugh

I think this horse can run and bears close watching.

Rob

[BitPlayer]

Interesting race for Cupid indeed.  Depending how TG sees ground loss for others, he may only get the 6th best figure in the race, but he is the only colt who was in the first half of the field at the first call and still in the first half at the end.

Carrying 122, I would not be surprised if SBN roughly paired his TG fig from the Southwest.

[miff]

Rob,

Baffert\'s record with maiden breakers winning stake routes next out is off the charts.

Cupid ran a Beyer of 95 or like TG 3, lack of scale weight/ground loss noted. Race on the track better than the number for all the reasons you correctly noted esp poor break, rush to lead,cutting a fast pace,poor cornering/green but very game late when hooked.Very nice race, could be a major derby threat with a forward move and maturation.

SBN lost momentum when kinda steadied back to last approaching the far turn, take a close look. Think the race was solid and the 5 top finishers are actually ok for this year.

Cupid ran the fastest of the 1 1/16th routes at OP but will not get the best TG figs due to weight and ground adjustments vs the other races.Cupids pace adjusted figure makes him fastest of all routes at OP yesterday, to look at it thru another methodology.


Mike

[johnnym]

I don\'t know what the jock on SBN was thinking he made a early move to separate from the other closers got in the clear was passed up and rode right up on the horse in front of him... Do not like a horse that has to go 6/7w every time. What does that say come Derby day? Orb..
Cupid add 11 lbs and another 3/16 of a mile who knows..
Let\'s see what happens FL Derby,is a match race what you want as your final Derby prep?

[FrankD.]

Mike,

When it comes to Baffert with 3 yr olds, believe your eyes first and your methodology de jour 2nd. Lucky, Bode, AP and now this one all \"not ready or not enough foundation\" per traditional ways.

A good NCAA analogy John Wooden\'s UCLA players to a man always said the games were a piece of cake compared to his practices. They were always prepared, any situation that could possibly come up in a game had already been rehearsed in practice and they were better conditioned than their opposition.

Baffert drills his 2 and 3 yr olds hard in blistering workouts and they are always race ready. An amazing feat year after year he has them ready while the competition drops like flies. Love him, hate him or indifferent you have to have the utmost respect for him.

Frank D.

[miff]

Frank,

Agree.Some observers speak to his unorthodox training methods, one observer calling him a magic man....hmmm.For the record,Mor Spirit was more highly thought of than Cupid before yesterday.Interesting for Baffert trainees, neither one have the clockers very impressed in the am, comparative to usual Baffert rockets.

So now we have another Tapit offspring in the conversation. What\'s their record at 10f? Is Mohaymen cheating his way to Derby and if so, can he get away with it vs Nyquist?

Big time preps, Fl Derby, SA Derby, Wood, ARK/LA derby, will now separate the pretenders from the contenders.

Mike

[big18741]

I think the timing might be bad for Cupid.

Got a late start(Dec 20th) being a May 19th foal.
Baffert said he needs time between races since he tends to get light.

Had 41 days between the maiden breaker and the Rebel and was cranked up to run a big race.

He\'s on a tighter schedule now with another prep and the Derby.
Given the timing,his bad breaks from the gate and the left hand turns coming into the stretch the Derby seems too soon on the calendar for him.

He might be really good later in the year though.

[TGJB]

Tapit\'s stud fee won\'t be going down this year... Had 4 in that race.

[miff]

Relative to Tapit\'s weak figs and overall achievements, an incredible sire.

[johnnym]

With SBN running style would a jock change to Borel help this horse ala Street Sense & Mine that Bird?