Gotham

[bobphilo]

Bitplayer,

Hope you don\'t mind me answering the question you put to SoCalMan, but I have seen mention that favorites are often overplayed underneath in the Exacta in \"Beyer on Speed\". The explantion is that many people box their Exacta bets so the favorite almost gets played as much underneath as on top.

Bob

[SoCalMan2]

Dear BitPlayer,

Thank you for the compliment.  I wish I could tell you that there was sophisticated data backing up what I am telling you.  Unfortunately, I am not aware of any.  I can tell you the following about my observations....First, I believe Beyer may have written about this in one of his books long ago.  Second, I use to notice when SoCal had very big fields that quite often a favorite would win and some long horse would come in underneath and the payoffs would seem quite generous to me.  Again, I do not have anything empirical to offer you, but I can tell you that it has worked and produced some very pleasing results.  Before the days of internet betting, I would read the charts everyday and think about whether a payoff was one I would want or not (really whether I was sorry I missed the day or not).  If you just compare exotic payoffs to win odds, you come across some situations where the exotics seem absurdly generous and when they seem really stingy.  I have tried to figure out when those are.  The best I can tell you is that you need a big field.  I think this is necessary because there are more combinations and the burden of the take on each combination is less than it is in smaller fields.  Also, it perversely seems to come up when the favorite in question is very heavily bet (I would say 8-5 or lower).

If you think about it, a horse should have the same amount bet on it to win place and show because it should have the same relative chances for all three of those bets.  However, when you bet a horse to come in second or come in third in an exotic, you are actually betting AGAINST that horse to win.  In other words, a horse that has a lot bet on it to finish first in an exotic should have very little bet on it to finish in another postion because the big money on it in the first position is saying that this horse will not finish second.  This is especially true with the heavy favorites because the crowd is basically saying these guys are really going to win.  Nevertheless, a lot of people box and do things that result in these horses getting a lot of money in these other positions even if it is not logical. That puts some money out there to win for the person willing to take a position. The problem is that you need to have some real confidence to be able to take such a position because as we all know races are often so closely matched that the best horse can run second or third for a plethora of reasons.  You need to find the times when the horse is so good that that normal level of uncertainty seems quite a bit lessened.

I do not try to force these plays.  You really need some pre-conditions before it makes any sense.  Having the big field is key.  Also, the horse needs to be a very big favorite.  If the horse is 5-2 or 3-1 as a favorite and you have a lot of confidence, you are much better off just betting to win.  One reason is that this is not such a heavy favorite that it is illogical to think it might run second and the money bet in the lower positions is not as ripe for the picking on a basis of pure logic; another is that winning the race is not enough, you need to get a price horse underneath.  I lose these bets sometimes when the favorite wins because I cannot get a price horse up.  I do not want to be missing 5-2 or 3-1 on the clear winner that I was confident in in these cases (I kick myself and wonder why I didn\'t just make the big bet to win).  However, I am not going to lose any sleep over missing a 6-5 or 7-5 win price.  Sometimes, you have the overwhelming favorite, but there is no reason to be suspect of the other horses that are bet.  In those situations you cannot do this play because people really seem to overbet the exotics with the logical contenders running in (again, I cannot give you evidence backing this up, it is my observation).  So, in addition to the overwhelming favorite, you need some horses that can come in at big prices and some horses that can run out at low prices.  These are really the important pre-conditions.  So, you have to be really careful not to force this play because if you do not have the preconditions, you do not have the generous potential that causes the bet to make sense.  One thing I might add is that you probably want to make sure you are covering with the lower priced horses. For example, this principle works if the odds in the super are 6-5,7-2,50-1,4-1.  You do not want to lose out on the good payoff because you needlessly threw out the low horses but were right about the 50-1 shot.  So you need to do the ticket by keying some long prices and using lots of horses in the other spots.  

Now, you are taking risk in filling out the bottom of the ticket of course, but your payoff seems to be overly enhanced because of all the money that was lost by the people who put the favorite in the second through 4th position.  

I feel like I havent really given you what you are looking for (hard and fast support to back up what I am saying), and I apologize for that.  I can only tell you that it is my observation and I have been pleased with the results.  

SCM2

[SoCalMan2]

Dear Basket777

Thank you.  I do appreciate that you make good points when you argue even if I might not always agree with them.  By the way, my first trip to the races ever was at Timonium in 1975, and I used to cut classes to go out to Bowie in High School.  So, we may have something else in common besides are agreed appreciation of the value of the sheets.  I actually miss Bowie.

SCM2

[basket777]

well nothing was like seeing a bernie bond first time starter. or muckaluck killing those 5 clamers.  saw  cure the blues break his madien also had a tip on montbrook. he was 7 to 1 with 2 mins to go.  was the 7 hourse went off at 1/9  great days back then ronny alfano had the best drugs. best memory having 3 dollars and hiting a pck 6. there was a 5/1 9/1 14/1 and 11/1 . i thought i was going to be rich. took the whole pool that day. 845 dollars.  that was a great lesson

[BitPlayer]

SCM2 -

You answered my question perfectly.  Thanks.

BitPlayer

[cubfan0316]

i think your a basket case.

[marcus]

I think Jerry has good reason to take exception w/ Ernie , credibility is not a commodity here - it\'s paramount . AOT didn\'t look well saturday , his body language while racing seemed to say that something was wrong and he certainly didn\'t fire  . Though if ( somehow ) he had kept the bogus vet 50 yrds away from his horse at all times  , that would have made sense ...    

[SoCalMan2]

In Mr. Paragallo\'s post, he mentions that on the Friday, the regular exercise rider said that AOT was not himself (not pulling at the bit) and there was some heat in his left foot.  He also said that AOT, nevertheless, \"seemed\" to jog fine for the trainer and the vet.

As a person who knows nothing about horses physically, I would appreciate the take of a person more knowledgeable about equine anatomy and well being.  Is this something that a Mandella or a Drysdale would be scratching over?  It looks to my uneducated eye that this may well fall into a grey area, but I would very much appreciate more insight.  Is this the type of thing that should be required to be reported if the powers that be required more information to be shared with the betting public?  Thanks in advance.

Also, I would like to thank Mr. Paragallo for two reasons.  There is no reason for him to come out here and even say anything, so I think we benefit from his willingness to engage in discourse here.  My original beef was that we horseplayers are not being treated fairly information wise, and Mr. Paragallo has been very generous sharing information in this format.  Second, I would like to point out that Mr. Paragallo is an extremely strong and generous supporter of a sport that we all love, so for that I offer my thanks also.

[sighthound]

Not a trainer of TB\'s to race (but of hunter/jumpers), I do train running hounds, and as a vet:   here you have the common situation of an animal that perceptively seems a bit not \"usual\" - examined by trainer, vet brought in to examine, nothing quantitatively found.

You are now in that nebulous grey zone every trainer hates.  Did you catch something early, before it\'s overtly clinical, or is it nothing at all?  

Every animal has an off day. Even elite athletes rarely perform at 100%.  Did he clean up his feed?  What\'s he doing in the stall, how is he acting otherwise?

You are left to rely on only two things:  first, the animal telling you what he wants to do; secondly, your gut trainer \"esp\" regarding the situation.  

The second should override the first, IMO, as if you\'re a good trainer, your esp will be correct nearly all of the time; secondly, the better the animal is, the more willing they will be to do what they love and risk self-destruction (they can\'t predict it).

It\'s not easy.  If it is nothing, you\'re the astute trainer in tune with every nuance of the animals in your care; if it\'s something, and you let the animal run, you\'re the chump, the one ignorant of the fine points of husbandry.

Unfortunately it sometimes takes the pressure of performance to make subtle things apparent.

JMHO, your actual mileage may vary.

[marcus]

Your right about Ernie being generous w/ his time and info - it is appreciated as is Jerry for allowing me to post and partake on the TG Ask The Experts Forum .

 I really have no practical experience on the horseman/ biz side of the game  , I realize  a common sense  laymans take on the situation doesn\'t always cut the muster and is nieve on my part ...  SoCalman and sighthound , both of your points are well taken .

Perhaps the negative 0 ( almost a 6 pt top ) hurt the horse 3 races back , when only able to get within 3/4\'s of a point to his top next time out is the best that he can do .   The answer was still unclear going into last  saturday\'s race , but  if AOT did in fact bounce in the Gothem , it would not be a shocker based on his pattern  .  

[sighthound]

What do I, as a bettor, want to know ...

Equipment changes.
Shoe changes.
I believe in strict drug testing.  Knowing also, however, that very few horses with much experience under their belts are really technically 100% sound, all have their own little concerns or problems, to a greater or lesser degree, that are managed throughout their careers, the horsemanship of the trainer being paramount here (the warriors of the cheap claiming ranks the best example)

Do I want to know every time a vet visits a barn? (certain vets of repute not withstanding) Not especially ... I\'d rather know if a new or different farrier shod the horse for this race.

The rest I guess I can see for myself in the paddock and warmup.

What do you guys want to know?