Exaggerator

[RICH]

there are only a few horses that I can call explosive in this derby, and a couple are a bit slower, the two who look ready for the major move look to be brodys cause just back to the 2yr old top, and Mor sprirt, who did it before the SA derby. BC working well looks the best chance, and MS should get right back to that number now, didn\'t look to be used at all in the last two races. The rest have moved a bunch or had the payoff number. Using those 2 on top and keyed in all spots

[richiebee]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> There is antidotal proof again this year that the
> California 3 year olds are an extremely strong
> group and Florida again no good.  
 
Rob:

Is History a science?

Check out my timeline:

May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run uno, dos, tres in the
2015 Ky. Derby

Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and Ralis ship cross country and take
the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.

October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC Juvie.

November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes the Delta Jackpot, beating east
coast and midwest 2YOs.

Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based maidens come scary close to
winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would graded stakes committee do if both
these races were won by maidens?)

April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships cross country and easily defeats
Nowaymen.

April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected (Baffert) wins the Lexington Stakes.
Cal based maiden One More Round completes the exacta.

I was trying to think of a sports analogy to describe this Cal dominance; the
one which came to mind is actually a racing analogy... this kind of looks like
what happens when Euro turf runners ship to the U.S.

The Cal horses Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mor Spirit are the top three in
Haskin\'s Derby Dozen.

Before The Guru Jerry Brown weighs in, my opinions on the Cal contenders (all
contingent on post position):

1)Nyquit: has the lead at the eighth pole, then we see if he has had enough
preparation. I don\'t think so.

2) Exaggerator: Did he peak in the SA Derby? Carries the extra weight of small
Richiebee future wagers (pool 2&3). If you like him, you gotta hope that Kent
D.is not the \"Jockey Full of Bourbon\", at least before the race.

3) Mor Spirit: A square price on the trainer who has been OK in the Derby.
Never worse than second. Numbers make him competitive.

4) Danzing Candy: Absolutely agree, Rob. The price is right and he won\'t be
hard to find.

Oaks Day entries out today. Seminar and Derby Day entries out tomorrow. Let the
games begin

[miff]

Rob,

You kinda stated it. Exaggerator looks better on his sheet than he does in carefully watching his races.Agree he makes very live runs and is quick burst type, his chance imo is one late run.None of the closers are even close in explosiveness.

Take a look at each of his defeats and a common thread is he doesn\'t finish with authority. The SA Derby was a walkover when his only 2 rivals didn\'t show up, combined with an uber meltdown.Did he really move forward or was the fig earned under optimal circumstances in his wheelhouse. Think it\'s a fair question as to whether he\'s a legit top contender or just another with a punchers chance.Interesting year in that several horses with good figs earned them in meltdown type preps with highly favorable set ups.

Tough year with lots of question marks,not a single horse who can make a mistake on Sat and still win, it appears.



Mike

[Tale Of Ekati]

Lol Ringato...I\'m well aware of this.
My analysis all began with Exaggerator\'s sheet. The protein so to speak. He\'s just solid...and fast.
I make him 15% to run a new top.
25% to pair.
25% small backward move(1-2)
20% large backward move (3-4)
15% X

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> Is History a science?
>
> Check out my timeline:
>
> May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run
> uno, dos, tres in the
> 2015 Ky. Derby
>
> Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and Ralis
> ship cross country and take
> the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
>
> October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC
> Juvie.
>
> November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes the
> Delta Jackpot, beating east
> coast and midwest 2YOs.
>
> Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based
> maidens come scary close to
> winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would
> graded stakes committee do if both
> these races were won by maidens?)
>
> April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships cross
> country and easily defeats
> Nowaymen.
>
> April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected (Baffert)
> wins the Lexington Stakes.
> Cal based maiden One More Round completes the
> exacta.
 
UPDATE

California based 3YOs account for 2/3rds of Triple Crown.

California based Laoban breaks maiden in Jim Dandy.

California based Songbird dominates East Coast fillies twice.

Baffert runners Drefong and Arrogate dominate on Travers Day; Baffert one two in the Travers.

Why are young horses developing so much faster on the West Coast? Why are the
best young horses ending up on West Coast?

[Silver Charm]

All of the Best 3YO and Older Colt-Filly and Mare TURF horses are with Trainers based in the East. Why are there better Turf Trainers here than there?

[SoCalMan2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All of the Best 3YO and Older Colt-Filly and Mare
> TURF horses are with Trainers based in the East.
> Why are there better Turf Trainers here than
> there?


On original and follow up query -- could applicable drug testing regimens have an impact?  Also, do drugs have a different impact on different surfaces?

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>  
> > Is History a science?
> >
> > Check out my timeline:
> >
> > May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run
> > uno, dos, tres in the
> > 2015 Ky. Derby
> >
> > Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and
> Ralis
> > ship cross country and take
> > the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
> >
> > October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC
> > Juvie.
> >
> > November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes
> the
> > Delta Jackpot, beating east
> > coast and midwest 2YOs.
> >
> > Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based
> > maidens come scary close to
> > winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would
> > graded stakes committee do if both
> > these races were won by maidens?)
> >
> > April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships
> cross
> > country and easily defeats
> > Nowaymen.
> >
> > April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected
> (Baffert)
> > wins the Lexington Stakes.
> > Cal based maiden One More Round completes the
> > exacta.
>  
> UPDATE
>
> California based 3YOs account for 2/3rds of Triple
> Crown.
>
> California based Laoban breaks maiden in Jim
> Dandy.
>
> California based Songbird dominates East Coast
> fillies twice.
>
> Baffert runners Drefong and Arrogate dominate on
> Travers Day; Baffert one two in the Travers.
>
> Why are young horses developing so much faster on
> the West Coast? Why are the
> best young horses ending up on West Coast?


FURTHER UPDATE:

Drefong and Arrogate take BC races.

Sonneteer (Cal based maiden) runs second in 2017 Rebel.

Irap (Cal based maiden) wins 2017 Blue Grass.

Before yesterday\'s Blue Grass, TVG hosts (and Dale Romans in a TVG interview)
were critical of the fact that the Toyota Blue Grass was downgraded from Gr I
to Gr II (as was the Wood Memorial); this was before known speed rider J.
Leparoux took the field virtually coast to coast on Doug O\'Neill trained maiden
Irap.

It might get to the point where racetracks make these prep races
\"Invitationals\" to preclude the possibility of a maiden prevailing, followed by
downgrading by the graded stakes committee, though I do not know in terms of
nomination fees if this would be an expensive decision.

Frank says this will be a Derby reminiscent of Giacomo\'s shocker. After
Gormley\'s re-emergence yesterday, it is likely that at least we will be seeing
the Moss colors in the starting gate.

The California 3YOs were hindered by poor weather early in the winter; the two
top Cal 3YOs (Mastery and Unique Bella) are currently on the shelf, but I will
be looking more closely at any West Coast runner that makes it to Louisville.
As of right now, Gormley (ranked 2d), Irap (3d) and Battle of Midway (16) are
the only Cal based candidates with sufficient points to start in the Derby.
Royal Mo (22), Iliad (24) and Sonneteer (26) would all need help.
(Interestingly, BC Juvie champ Classic Empire is currently ranked 21st). (As of
this moment Bob Baffert\'s top candidates are ranked 35th and 39th).