\"If you think long, you think wrong\" - Jim Kaat

Physically impressive beast tearing up the track, competitive top fig, forwardly placed inside, double digit price.

I\'ll ignore the 2yo pattern. A pair up probably wins this from his post.

analizethis Wrote:
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> Not surprised with Grande. Great talent, no starts
> until 3 yo and no works since Wood except for an
> under the radar one at KEE.
>
> Another situation where Repole can rage at
> \"racing\" but TAP knows he is an \"oochy\" colt.
>
> Thanks.


Yep the single workout after that big number was a clue TAP knew he had a brittle one. It was a C-minus breeze, too. A shame as his A-game was easily good enough to win today at a price.

His Bluegrass was 3/4-1 pt move forward on my pace adjustments.

Based purely on pattern analysis, he should be the favored IMO.

Gary Irish Wrote:
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> I let it go the first time, could not again.
>
> \"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is
> idiotic.
>
> It dictates a player turn off their brain to
> logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of
> their development. By this thinking you will
> likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces
> unless you are lucky.
>
> You may as well say \"I will run every red light
> until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an
> extreme level but it is the same logic.


With Thorograph figs, the winner could have gone backwards 2 points off its best and still win with a rail trip.

I learned early on that one can do very well just by taking the fastest horse in the race at a price. A 2-3 point \"bounce\" (with a rail trip) had a great chance to beat anyone else\'s best in here (with likely ground loss).

There is zero chance someone could come up with this horse if they relied on Rags. For one of the premier races on the calendar, that\'s just very sad.

Roman Wrote:
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> The proof is in the pudding, TG had the figures
> right before the race & most surely will after.
> Would bet that Arcangelo does not get the best
> figure on TG. He had a beautiful rail trip by
> Castellano, saved all the ground, and won by less
> than 2.



Agree totally.

Every other major figure maker has Arcangelo moving forward in that race. BRIS had a 101, two points slower than Forte\'s FOY, and if you factor ground loss, the best figure on those numbers as well.

How do you have him running 8 lengths slower vs his MSW? The front two beat 6 other graded stakes runners by 9+ LENGTHS!! Don\'t know exactly what happened, but it\'s just an embarrassing, unacceptable mistake on their part and just shows a real lack of quality control over there - because it\'s not their first!

That figure from a major race like the Pan can NEVER happen if you\'re selling figures for $35/card. Honestly, they should refund anyone who paid for that crap.

What kind of idiots still buy that trash?  

THANK YOU JB!!!!!!!!  LETS GOOOOOO!!!!!!

bluechip21 Wrote:
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> for racing? great, sure.
>
> for the horse? I do not think she hits the super.
> Not fast enough, and she flattened out the last
> time she tried this at Oaklawn. Not much of an
> excuse there. ... this isn\'t Rachel.
>
> Oaks / Acorn / Alabama if memory serves correctly.


If one believes this, then what\'s the problem? A plodding Derby winner who capitalized on a pace and an outclassed horse that will get overbet solely because of its genitalia?

Sounds like the betting opportunity of the century.

Since they ran the pace of a mile race, how about we just rate every horse to the mile pole? Not so many X\'s, eh?

:50 half mile isn\'t plodding to you?  Relative to the stopping horses, yes it looks like he\'s flying on the overhead. But except for having to slow down twice for traffic and come back up to speed, he was going same pace all race.

jbelfior Wrote:
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> He out kicked 3 horses that were 5-10 lengths
> better than him. Not one, but 3.
>
> Checks midstretch behind a tiring Messier, then
> rebreaks.
>
> If they do find something what would be the better
> option for CD....go public with it and blow up the
> Kentucky Derby result (again!!!) or sweep it under
> the hay?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


He didn\'t outkick anyone. He plodded past stopping horses. His \"rebreaks\" were him picking up his feet a little bit after being stopped a couple times due to traffic.

Rich Strike went out in :49 and came home in :50.  The horses he passed went out in :45-:47 and were stone dead in the stretch coming home in :53-:56.  Epicenter came home in around 52 2/5th. Rich Strike ran nearly the exact same pace all the way around the track.

IMO, Joel moved way too soon and if he would have waited an 1/8th before making his move, Epicenter wins by a couple lengths.

Roman Wrote:
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> His dam ran a 9 as a 2 year old, and ran a 0 at 3,
> so a 9 point jump was in the genes. Horse won fare
> and square, great ride by Leon, terrible ride by
> 15 other jockeys.


I put the last one at 7 3/4, and he probably moved up to a 2 or 3 here, with most of the rest of the horses being compromised by the pace, ran far from optimal energy dispersion.

The Derby had a faster opening half mile than the Pat Day Mile.

People are looking for conspiracies where none exist. A plodder that was due (and ripe) for a developmental move up caught the perfect pace and trip. End of story. Again, slow the race down by 2/5ths at the half mile mark and he finishes 6th-8th, and no one cares that he moved up. Everything broke right for him.

jerry Wrote:
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> Great. Now we're calling into question the
> accuracy of the figures. JB, can you handle this
> one?


Nothing new for me, I\'ve always called in the accuracy of the figures on horses who ran extreme slow or extreme fast fractions and make my own hand adjustments. You can\'t make up lost time and there\'s some races where they go so fast early, it would be several points faster if Jerry had recorded the figure to an earlier pole.

One of the most extreme ones I can remember that I brought to his attention, was when Sharp Azteca looked like a play on Belmont Day after he \"paired\" in the Pat Day Mile, but it was clear if the race was measured to 6f, he had run 3 1/2 pts faster and would be a bounce candidate on Belmont day.

Oh look, I found it!

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,102811,102829#msg-102829

Great post Fairmount and I\'m in agreement. I don\'t think the 9 for Strike Rich\'s last race was fair either. He closed well into a slow paced poly race and IMO, that was a move forward in my book which made him live for another move forward. I\'m not red-boarding, he was still too slow for me to use him any which way, but where most of the field ran very inefficient fractions, the hyper fast pace definitely gave him a chance. Slow the first two quarter miles down by 1/5th second each and Rich Strike misses the board and we\'re having a different discussion. Rich Strike went out in :49, came home in :50. He didn\'t hit any turbo button. He was the classic sustained closer into a wipeout pace.

Buddy of mine had $1 ex 3/all, all/3. Got my balls stomped in today, but very happy for him. He\'s not a big $ player.