Ragozin

[sekrah]

Roman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The proof is in the pudding, TG had the figures
> right before the race & most surely will after.
> Would bet that Arcangelo does not get the best
> figure on TG. He had a beautiful rail trip by
> Castellano, saved all the ground, and won by less
> than 2.



Agree totally.

Every other major figure maker has Arcangelo moving forward in that race. BRIS had a 101, two points slower than Forte\'s FOY, and if you factor ground loss, the best figure on those numbers as well.

How do you have him running 8 lengths slower vs his MSW? The front two beat 6 other graded stakes runners by 9+ LENGTHS!! Don\'t know exactly what happened, but it\'s just an embarrassing, unacceptable mistake on their part and just shows a real lack of quality control over there - because it\'s not their first!

That figure from a major race like the Pan can NEVER happen if you\'re selling figures for $35/card. Honestly, they should refund anyone who paid for that crap.

[Roman]

35 dollars is a lot of money, I spend a little more than that on a good wagering weekend. To be honest , I red board  a lot to see what figure a horse gets and buy TG on the biggest weekends of the year,  and the money is well spent if you factor in the free data and red board. Anyways , thank you TG team , and like they say, welcome Ragz users to the pool.

[TGJB]

Johnny, I played the horse to bounce for the reasons I discussed in the seminar, and didn't hit the race. And felt like an idiot when people who used our data thanked me afterword.

Haven't done the day yet but it's gonna be interesting. Raw time came up fast against the Brooklyn, and there was a ton of ground loss. Some of the other guys had excuses, but they should yank Saez' license for that ride.

Sekrah is right that there is no excuse for Jake getting the Peter Pan that wrong, for a lot of reasons. At a smaller track with a lot of unsound and erratic horses, that would be one thing, and maybe even if it was the only two turn race on a day. But this is 1- a stake 2- at a high end circuit and 3- except on Belmont day the dirt races are all one turn.

And they got his maiden win wrong too. No excuse.

[johnnym]

" Johnny, I played the horse to bounce for the reasons I discussed in the seminar, and didn't hit the race. And felt like an idiot when people who used our data thanked me afterword"

I had a $100 ex box with him and Trice. Damn Forte the horse I was really against.
I always remember a regular who used to post here, no more though and I quote

"Don't play a horse to bounce until they do"
Granted as I gained more experience it's a case by case basis.

I guess it's better to be thanked than to be the rags.

GL
John

[Roman]

Thanks for the data Jerry!

[Tavasco]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> they should yank Saez' license for that ride.
>
TAPIT TRICE away last without incident, came under coaxing and chased just off the inside through the first turn before tipping five to six paths off the inside down the backstretch, tucked four wide at the nine-sixteenths and commenced a bid on the front stacking outside a trio just off the leader at that station, angled five wide into upper stretch, dug in offering up a mild bid but was collared in the final strides for the place. honors and forced to settle for the show.

The above sounds bad was there more?

[bluechip21]

William Shakespear:

To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether \'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,

---

This is a good time to bring up the bounce theory. Esp on classy horses.

Personally I have always found, excluding extreme cases, that horses dont bounce as often as people project them to. This includes TG folks and regular horse players who dont use the sheets as well.

Sometimes they just dont run their race. Horse get\'s bodied out of the gate and pulls up? Bounce. Horse runs into a horrific pace scenario? Bounce. Horse gets stuck behind a wall and can\'t get through? Bounce. ... Basically all I am saying is that I think the phrase gets used way too loosely.

this is not a post against TG, more so an opinion on a different way to look at things.

Disclosure:
I loved Arcangelo and did not cash in the sequence. So eff me.

Also:
Rags has an awful presentation. They could have the best figs in the world, and I\'d never use. Thankfully they do not.

[TGJB]

The pace was fast, the horse is a closer, he had no business pushing him to be close. Then he made a wide premature move (going a mile and a half) like the finish line was at the top of the stretch. It's amazing the horse stayed on as well as he did.

[Roman]

bluechip21 Wrote:
-----------------------------------------------------
>
> This is a good time to bring up the bounce theory.
> Esp on classy horses.
>
> Personally I have always found, excluding extreme
> cases, that horses dont bounce as often as people
> project them to. This includes TG folks and
> regular horse players who dont use the sheets as
> well.
>
> Sometimes they just dont run their race. Horse
> get\'s bodied out of the gate and pulls up? Bounce.
> Horse runs into a horrific pace scenario? Bounce.
> Horse gets stuck behind a wall and can\'t get
> through? Bounce. ... Basically all I am saying is
> that I think the phrase gets used way too loosely.


Couldn't agree more, so much more to it than just an actual "bounce".
Remember Flightline was suppose to bounce.

[bluechip21]

Was that race too fast? Keeneland has come up pretty slow IMO. And in the tapit trice race the horse closed into a horse who doesn\'t want more than a mile (zooms in on the sire\'s mile over vs mile under stats).

[sekrah]

I learned early on that one can do very well just by taking the fastest horse in the race at a price. A 2-3 point \"bounce\" (with a rail trip) had a great chance to beat anyone else\'s best in here (with likely ground loss).

There is zero chance someone could come up with this horse if they relied on Rags. For one of the premier races on the calendar, that\'s just very sad.

[shanahan]

Posted without comment nor prejudice regarding the Belmont:

TG Analysis - 2 4 7 8 bx

Rags Analysis - 6/ 2 3 8


I am overly prejudiced to TG data as the finest by far (not even close) and has served me well, but I have posted numerous times I\'ll never understand the analysis (not Belmont, all tracks).  Then again, that\'s part of the puzzle, eh?

Using TG data I had handicapped the Belmont as follows:

3-6-2-8 (less than a point separated them) then a gap begins:7-1 then no chance 4-9-5

JB/Team TG - keep on rockin\' it on the great data.

[P-Dub]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Posted without comment nor prejudice regarding the
> Belmont:
>
> TG Analysis - 2 4 7 8 bx
>
> Rags Analysis - 6/ 2 3 8
>
>
> I am overly prejudiced to TG data as the finest by
> far (not even close) and has served me well, but I
> have posted numerous times I\'ll never understand
> the analysis (not Belmont, all tracks).  Then
> again, that\'s part of the puzzle, eh?
>
> Using TG data I had handicapped the Belmont as
> follows:
>
> 3-6-2-8 (less than a point separated them) then a
> gap begins:7-1 then no chance 4-9-5
>
> JB/Team TG - keep on rockin\' it on the great data.

The analysis is one man\'s opinion.

You give 5 people the same data, often times you get 5 diff opinions.

I learned long ago, someone on this board said it can\'t remember who,...never dismiss the horse with the fastest number, especially at a price.

[johnnym]

"I learned long ago, someone on this board said it can\'t remember who,...never dismiss the horse with the fastest number, especially at a price."

I remember those words as well.

It was the same gentleman that said
"Don't play a horse to bounce until they bounce."

He managed a hedge fund.
GL
John

[Gary Irish]

I let it go the first time, could not again.

\"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is idiotic.

It dictates a player turn off their brain to logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of their development. By this thinking you will likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces unless you are lucky.

You may as well say \"I will run every red light until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an extreme level but it is the same logic.