Ragozin

[Rich Curtis]

\"'Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do' is idiotic."

Ditch the politics—both the Sheets politics and the politics politics—and I could learn to like you.

[P-Dub]

Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I let it go the first time, could not again.
>
> \"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is
> idiotic.
>
> It dictates a player turn off their brain to
> logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of
> their development. By this thinking you will
> likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces
> unless you are lucky.
>
> You may as well say \"I will run every red light
> until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an
> extreme level but it is the same logic.

I was thinking about letting this go, but won\'t

What is idiotic is you leaving out the price part of the equation

I dictates a player turning off their brain in regards to the tote board. By this thinking you will invariably miss out on a nice priced winner.

So lets toss the fastest horse in the race, a horse that has never gone backwards, a horse that will reward you 7x if you are correct.

Yes genius, every horse does reach the end of their development. Truly stunning stuff right here. We had no idea.

And no, your last idiotic statement wasn\'t the same logic.

It was just idiotic

[Gary Irish]

Yeah -Dub - Change the premise and it changes the logic, duh. Odds were never part of the statement. How convenient for your challenge to add it.

Rich - I cannot change who I am. To borrow from Tom Waits \"If I exorcize my Devils my Angels may leave too.\" I in no way concede my values are devilish.

I enjoy the level of discussion here most of the time. I know I can be abrasive and stupid but never dull.

My red light analogy was at the exact level of judgement of the original statement. Knee jerk. We disagree.

[johnnym]

"  By this thinking you will likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces unless you are lucky."

If your that good and win every wager you make then good for you.

I'm a realist, I win some and I loose some.

When the fastest horse gets 7-1 and the other fastest horse is half that I know where I'm going.

As I mentioned it's a case by case basis.

[Gary Irish]

Hello John

I hope I didn\'t give you the idea I am any kind of genius. My record is mostly on the other board. I have been honest about my struggles and have tried to learn by admitting my mistakes. Did you miss the part where I admitted my poverty?

I never said the Belmont winner was a bad play. I have friend who tried to convince me he was the one, but I did not like what I saw on Ragozin. He was very different on TG. As P Dub pointed out, it was an odds play.

Good for you. You utilized good JUDGEMENT based on logic. That is what a sharp player does. How come TG guys spell it \"loose\"? lol

[sekrah]

Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I let it go the first time, could not again.
>
> \"Don\'t play a horse to bounce until they do\" is
> idiotic.
>
> It dictates a player turn off their brain to
> logical thinking. Every horse reaches the end of
> their development. By this thinking you will
> likely lose a bet when he invariably bounces
> unless you are lucky.
>
> You may as well say \"I will run every red light
> until I crash\" - I know, this is taking it to an
> extreme level but it is the same logic.


With Thorograph figs, the winner could have gone backwards 2 points off its best and still win with a rail trip.

[statuette]

Btw is the infamous chuckles still around

[TGJB]

He probably did.

[Roman]

I agree, my rough estimate is Forte is close to a pair, and Tapit Trice earning the best fig, especially with the Saez ride.

[P-Dub]

Gary Irish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah -Dub - Change the premise and it changes the
> logic, duh. Odds were never part of the statement.
> How convenient for your challenge to add it.


Gary its one of the biggest reasons we make decisions

7/1 I\'m playing no bounce

8/5 I\'m playing that he does

There are no absolutes in this game.  The tote board plays a big part in the decision making.

I actually like the fact you had a little P-Dub attitude with the initial statement.

[Gary Irish]

I agree with you 100% about the odds. It would be foolhardy to argue otherwise.

It also would prove nothing to pursue my challenge to Sekrah at the top of this string. He pushed a button and I went off, rightly so imo.

But a contest would prove nothing. As you adroitly pointed out, the same data can be read several ways depending on the user. It does not prove or disprove the accuracy of the figures.

I enjoy pre-race prognostication but most people don\'t. Maybe I will do a race from Saturdays Belmont card over there. I cannot tell if there will be an appealing race until I see it.