EVERYBODY KNOWS...

[sekrah]

jbelfior Wrote:
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> He out kicked 3 horses that were 5-10 lengths
> better than him. Not one, but 3.
>
> Checks midstretch behind a tiring Messier, then
> rebreaks.
>
> If they do find something what would be the better
> option for CD....go public with it and blow up the
> Kentucky Derby result (again!!!) or sweep it under
> the hay?
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


He didn\'t outkick anyone. He plodded past stopping horses. His \"rebreaks\" were him picking up his feet a little bit after being stopped a couple times due to traffic.

Rich Strike went out in :49 and came home in :50.  The horses he passed went out in :45-:47 and were stone dead in the stretch coming home in :53-:56.  Epicenter came home in around 52 2/5th. Rich Strike ran nearly the exact same pace all the way around the track.

IMO, Joel moved way too soon and if he would have waited an 1/8th before making his move, Epicenter wins by a couple lengths.

[HP]

Best Derby ride ever?  Right on the break he cuts behind straight to the rail.  Just like he went to a TG seminar on ground loss.  

On the turn he had to muscle in between, and down the stretch he had to maneuver again briefly off the rail and then he got right back to it to pass the last two.  Absolutely phenomenal.  Race collapsed and he put himself in position to win.  Lots of sour grapes out there?  Hats off from me!

HP

[Strike]

The only excuse for Epicenter\'s and Zandon\'s collapse was breeding -- they just cannot go that far. Neither one of them were near the fast early fractions -- especially Zandon. Pretty sweet trips for both but just could not finish.

Unlike the OAKS fillies; overall a pretty weak bunch this year.

[bluechip21]

upon reflection, I think this is the correct take. Blazing pace and horses out side of Zandon and Epicenter (more on him later), horses that finished top 5 were all way far back at the first call. Simply put, the Race broke down and the horse with the fastest closing pace fig (time form) got a great ride weaving between horses to steal the race. If the best horses on paper, or in the race, won 100% of the time, would we even care to play this game?

Imagine this, Irad had the 1 post and navigated his horse 10 wide, while the horse in the 21 post, got a perfect trip up the rail. Irad Ortiz had his lunch stolen by Sonny Leon. ... It takes me back to a book I read years ago called Scorecasting. The basic premise of the book is that in sports, you often have athletes who play not to lose, versus playing to win. That is what Irad did (take a horse 10 wide and hope for a check) and on the flip side, Sonny played to win (fearlessly navigate horses driving home on the rail).

On to Epicenter. Far and away the best horse in the race. If only Joel had gotten him to switch leads, and I think he holds off the charging closer to win the race.

[HP]

Leon got to the rail and there was room because they were so strung out.  He had a spot and kept going.  Irad and Mo almost ran into the rail at the start?  Irad was on the rail too, but when they got to the second turn if you watch the replay there was a solid wall on the inside and Irad had a seam to get out behind for some room, but once he got in there he had to keep drifting out until he had a spot to straighten out.  Leon was on the inside of that wall and there\'s a great move where he bulls between two horses to get back to the inside.  But if you were behind the wall to begin with....

I think it was more the luck of how things broke than any deliberate \"navigating.\"  I don\'t think Irad could\'ve done anything better or differently, he was inside all the way.

[voicemale]

Then your B+ field just got run over by a D- horse. That was the point. The races - the Derby and all its preps - are staged every year. Not all their winners are equal. Some are better than others. And the 2022 crop of 3 years olds is - at best - ordinary. And that\'s probably coming down on the more charitable side.

[HP]

I don\'t see all that but hey, it\'s horse racing. There was no dirt form to evaluate. He liked Churchill and jumped up. Happens with 3yos and happens with surface switches. Horse could be great and just totally concealed by what they asked him to do before the Derby.

Other than that the early pace killed most of them. Zandon did what he was supposed to, and as per what JB said in his comments Epicenter got a good draw for what he was going to do. The others knocked each other out. When they separate into smaller fields for stakes races we\'ll see how good they are.

I\'m not reading much about Baffert. Two horses figured. Took money, didn\'t run. Neither did the one earlier in the card. Before the day I thought it was win/win for Baffert. If they win he\'s a genius and they can\'t blame him for cheating and if he loses, Yakteen is not a great trainer. Now I\'m not so sure. And I\'m much happier with this winner\'s story than reading about another miracle where Baffert, again, plucks the magic three year old from the 10s of thousands of eligible horses every year. Obviously without his \"personal touch\" they\'re missing something.

[jbelfior]

He \"plodded\"? Didn\'t look like he was plodding when I watched the overhead.

I wasn\'t referring to the backing up speed. Was referring to Zandon, Mo Donegal, and Simplification (who weren\'t stopping) not to mention the two Turfway horses that dusted him in the Jeff Ruby.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[jerry]

Thank you for this. Your rationale makes perfectly good sense but I just don't have the time or interest to dissect every race as you have done here. I suspect it is a flaw with simply reducing a performance to a number.

[Chas04]

I don\'t think Jack Christopher looked all that dominating either as one of the best in the crop. Workmanlike win vs terrible field. I don\'t know. I just can\'t believe the winner accelerated like down the lane. How is that possible from his past running line?

[jerry]

I accept the results with lesson learned. Stick to 4 year olds and up.

[Chas04]

Million dollar question.

[Flighted Iron]

Your pal doesn\'t use thorograph?

[sekrah]

:50 half mile isn\'t plodding to you?  Relative to the stopping horses, yes it looks like he\'s flying on the overhead. But except for having to slow down twice for traffic and come back up to speed, he was going same pace all race.

[P-Dub]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> Your pal doesn\'t use thorograph?

That\'s what math or money meant??

No he doesn\'t use TG, but he used my opinion on many races and made quite a bit. He sends it in