Greetings

Several in the 2nd ran their 2016 tops in the Jun 30 CLM25K at Bel, which seems like a rare occurrence, especially for older horses.

not directly questioning the numbers, as that\'s the mason-dixon line of my handicapping sanity, but any comments from the figure technicians on that Jun 30th race?

cheers

nice pick tough beat
and Imbriale made it worse

Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> I think, actually, that the last thing Espinoza will do is get in a duel with Materiality.

to me that\'s the elephant in the OTB...  advanatage Mat.. come get me, now, later, don\'t matter but you better bring your A game cause that\'s what I brought today


> The question is, what\'s in AP\'s tank at the 3/8s pole?

enough gas to get to the 1/4 pole

IMO 12-1 ML on Spring to the Sky seems way too high and a brainless key if anything close to that. Paired his competitive top first back this year at a distance prob not his preferred. Tough to get a read on his off turf form but I can argue he doesn\'t hate it based on the figs.

Something Extra is a head scratcher to me. After a few years now at 7 he finally pairs up fast figs. Is he rock solid now or set up for the bounce to come in a bigger way? My guess is the slight forward move at CD is a good sign and he\'s a must use.

Mosler looks like underlaid X factor at post & distance.

Irad gives Tamarkuz the Swept Overboard trip and the saved ground plus weight break plus the FTL move up are enough to factor him in at double digit odds, maybe

I used to do 52 weeks a year but the payasos despistados have convinced me I only need to pay attention to 1 day

all distances

http://www.thorograph.com/How2Use/intro.pdf

a TG point is variable with regards to lenghts and race distance

As a committed sheet player, two main things I like about Keyn Ice

- breaking out in the ky derby from the tight range set in the four starts from the Remsen last Nov through the la Derby

- the obvious negatives of this NW1 eligible via conventional capping creates potential overlay scenario


IMO one of the most lucrative sheet angles is the hidden breakout; I\'m assuming despite the finish ahead of 11 horses at 45-1 as 3rd longest shot in derby he\'s still way under most radars.

I can\'t knock anyone attacking AP in the win pool but I question the value on fraudsted & doorMat given the much discussed question marks, mostly valid to some extent. Seems a decent plan to try to get a bomb into the triple, and not be concerned which one or two of the top three fail to make it in. The expected odds for KI make it so easy to spread out and you can still profit if the racing gods don\'t show up and Buffy gets the TC.

miff Wrote:
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> Gonna be a little interesting how NBC covers the \"Zayat\" story on National TV Sat.


Given that they will not go near the realities discussed here, seems like a good time to trot out Brian Williams for his comeback

from the TG archives..

Belmont #, prior race #, prev top

1992 Agincourt, 13-3, 13-1, 10-3
1994 Go for Gin, 5-2, 4, 4
1995 Star Standard, 6, 6, 6
1996 Louis Quatorze, 6-2, 2-3, 2-3
1999 Stephen Got Even, 4-2, 3-2, 3-2
2001 AP Valentine, 2, 4, 4
2004 Birdstone, neg 1-1, 5-2, 2-1
2005 Andromedas Hero, 2, 5-3, 5
2005 Indy Storm, 5, 5, 5
2007 CP West, 5-2, 0, 0
2008 Da\"Tara, 1-3, 3-2, 3-2
2008 Anak Nakal, 4-2, 4, 2-3
2009 Brave Victory, 4-2, 3-1, 2-1
2009 Miner\'s Escape, 20-2, 2-2, 2-2
2010 Fly Down, 3, 0, 0
2010 Ice Box, 7-1, 2-2, 1-2


possibly of note: 3 new tops and 1 paired out of all his 4 starters between 2001-2005

since then just the what have you/unmentionable in 2008 out of 7 starts

miff Wrote:
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> Forgetting works and getting back to
> sheets/handicapping, I dont see any horse
> \"sitting\" on a big performance at 12f, do you?

yes, Frosted
given 2 yr old top & 5 weeks since slight regression in derby after the neg 2 in Wood

but how many Belmont Breezes will need to be consumed before Rosario is keyed at single digit odds in this spot?

looking elsewhere for key..


THANKS Miff for all the updates and everyone else for the thoughtfull posts here!

If the 2011 Belmont is any indication,
Castellano is worth 6+ lengths over Rosario

It doesn\'t help Frosted\'s case that his 3 negative #\'s were all earned with W--I--D--E trips

To paraphrase an ex-prez:
There\'s an old saying in Tennessee,
screw me once, shame on... shame on Joel
screw me... you can\'t get screwed again

Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts

Many similarities between Materiality and Summer Bird and a few maybe big differences... Who has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont?

Facts:
both unraced at 2
both 3 starts then derby then belmont
both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into derby)
SB top a 7.5 pt leap
Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at 1.75 pts

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.pdf

Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to question; he ran a 2
Several angles to consider re Mat but this is striclcty about the TG pattern

great recap and great pick/horrible loss in 02

but given the comments you wrote, the conclusion at end seems kind of vague as you\'ve already made a decent case that if the grind doesn\'t beat AP then odds are something else will so what\'s the difference when putting a strategy together?

In other words, if AP actually makes it to the starting gate (not taking it for granted), there will be valid excuses offered after he finishes not first, whether they ganged up on him, or he didn\'t break well, or jock moved too soon, or wrong part of track, or Frosted or Materiality was rested and liked track better, etc...

toppled Wrote:
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> I don\'t know anyone who can win betting on a horse whose trainer in that
> situation wins around 2% of the time.  Especially when they are bet like
> Pletcher\'s horses are.

Maybe by using as key in exotics?
BG Cat was 30-1
Invisible Ink was 55-1
Both only needed to pair up their TG top to crack the exacta

but you don\'t know me and I didn\'t have Invisible Ink