Pletcher Recent Belmont History

[Focus959]

2014 Commissioner   2nd  28-1 Peter Pan 2nd
2014 Matterhorn     8th  41-1 Peter Pan 5th
2013 Palace Malice  1st  13-1 Derby 12th
2013 Revolutionary  5th  5-1  Derby 3rd
2013 Unlimited Budg 6th  14-1 Oaks  3rd
2013 Overanalyze    7th  10-1
2013 Midnignt Taboo 12th 30-1
2011 Stay Thirsty   2nd  16-1 Derby 12th
2010 Interactif     7th  20-1 Blue Grass 4th
2009 Dunkirk        2nd   9-2 Derby 11th (Ran big GP figs)
2008 Ready\'s Echo   3rd  29-1 Peter Pan 3rd
2007 Rags to Riches 1st   4-1 Oaks 1st
2006 Bluegrass Cat  2nd   9-2 Derby 2nd
2006 Sunriver       3rd   6-1

Dunkirk ran lights out in Florida a la Materiality. Peter Pan becoming a very serious prep for Toddy\'s non-Derby runners.

[joemama]

Thanks for that info.

Problem with Pletcho is picking which one of his entries to bet.

[toppled]

Not exactly a glowing report on 2 Pletchers this AM from Welsch:http://live.drf.com/nuggets/15705

Materiality backed up to the top of the stretch and galloped 1 3/4 miles.  He did not get warm today as he did yesterday morning although he\'s not showing quite the same energy level he had on a regular basis at  Churchill Downs the week prior to the Derby.  Today was only his second day back galloping since his excellent work last Friday.

Carpe Diem, who can be a handful in the morning, jogged a mile the wrong way accompanied by Pletcher\'s stable pony, reversed direction and galloped a mile while showing little enthusiasm as he passed by the wire before pulling up after a mile on the clubhouse turn.

[beazley]

Underwhelmed by the Peter Pan 1-2 horses but would probably take CC since his owners willing to pay $75K to supplement. Horse may be getting right at long odds for a piece.

Pletcher does well with his Derby also-rans.  One of those two probably hits the board.

That\'s potentially 2/3 of the tri right there. Maybe AP on Mubtaahij on top.  Mub might go off at pretty long odds.  I think he\'s the best play and value to win with his pedigree and running style if AP is over the top.

[ringato3]

Using owner\'s willingness to pay a fee to enter, not a handicapping tool I would be using too often.....

Think the Peter Pan runners both have chances underneath.  Trip over the track always an angle worth looking at.

Rob

[ringato3]

Toppled,

I like Welsch a lot, but not sure about his reports this year with a couple of these.  While others on this board reported that Materiality looked a bit off prior to the Derby, Welsch continued to glow about him, just casually mentioning that he was on the wrong lead in a work late.  

Now, two days ago he anoints Materiality the biggest challenge after the \"sparkling work\", now says he doesn\'t have the same energy he had prior to Churchill (whereas the rest of the world seemed to have the horse a bit \"off\" prior to Churchill)

Conflicting reports are awful to interpret.  At this point, Welsch is a \"toss\" for me, not sure about the horses though.........

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Skepticism always ok.Re Welsch(overall great imo)He hated Cali Chrome early last year as he did not know him well enough.

His first look at AP this year, he was underwhelmed by his physicality, then observing him work, he saw what others who know AP were wowing about.

All TAP\'s prospects were observed all winter long at PBD by Welsch, he knows them. His comment today re Mat and Carpe may reflect the aftermath of their recent works, some horses do not bounce out of works so easily.

As a general remark, there are dozens of horsemen and quite a few clockers at Belmont who have been observing the Belmont contenders(MAT,FROSTED, CARPE) and none that I know have been impressed by any of them(Madefromlucky has most fans re training)

Forgetting works and getting back to sheets/handicapping, I dont see any horse \"sitting\" on a big performance at 12f, do you?

Mike

[flushedstraight]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Forgetting works and getting back to
> sheets/handicapping, I dont see any horse
> \"sitting\" on a big performance at 12f, do you?

yes, Frosted
given 2 yr old top & 5 weeks since slight regression in derby after the neg 2 in Wood

but how many Belmont Breezes will need to be consumed before Rosario is keyed at single digit odds in this spot?

looking elsewhere for key..


THANKS Miff for all the updates and everyone else for the thoughtfull posts here!

[ringato3]

Mike,

As for the question you asked, i don\'t see anybody sitting on a big performance.  If American Pharaoh runs a race as good as his Derby or Preakness, I don\'t think he will be beat (figures aside, I think his Derby/Preakness were about the same from a racetrack performance perspective).

To be honest though, I sometimes handicap the Belmont a bit differently, because so few horses here are really bred to go 1 1/2 on dirt (because we have so few races carded so far).  It is sort of like attrition, instead of looking for who is sitting on a big top or big performance, I am looking for who can run a representative race relative to their recent form.  And as much as I seldom look at breeding in handicapping except for 1st time starters and 1st time grass, I do look at breeding for the Belmont.  Whereas I think you can get milers or mile and 1/16 horses that are in peak shape to run well in the Derby or Preakness, I think the Belmont does separate the distance horses from the brilliant milers.  

I have liked Materiality since he went by Stanford like he was standing still in that 1 1/8th race at Gulfstream.  When he dug in and beat a solid horse like Upstart, in what I thought was the most impressive derby prep, it confirmed what I thought - that he was the real deal.  Unlike others who think he ran well in the derby with a bad trip, I think he was just mediocre, but not awful.  And I can give any horse on mulligan.  Based on breeding, I think Materiality is as good or better than any in the field, with the exception of the Dubai horse, who looks slow to me (although hard to completely toss because the slower pace and grind of the Belmont may make him a plausible borderline contender).  

I also don\'t love AP going 1 1/2.  he fits the mold to me of the Sunday Silence type horse, which is a compliment, but fluid stride and acceleration are not things that make Belmont winners.  I think Baffert is 10x the trainer Pletcher is in the Triple Crown, so I don\'t expect AP to have a Big Brown type performance, but I just don\'t see him winning on Saturday.  I see a relatively fast pace, with at least one or two horses wanting to go to the front, so I don\'t see AP setting a galloping pace and drawing off.  He will have to run early and late to win, and off the rough campaign, against some relatively fast horses, he feels like a play against.  

figuring out who to key on is tricky.  I will be on Materiality, but he can\'t be a \"stand\".  Frosted is another fast contender.  So, he can be used.  I really think the other Pletcher (peter pan winner) is a slow slug, but I also think he is sitting on a \"big race\" for him, whether that is big enough to contend at all, is very questionable.  No doubt in my mind he was a different horse in the Peter Pan.  And 3 year olds coming to form have to be respected.  

Great race.  Great card (it appears to be).

No walkover for AP!

Rob

[bellsbendboy]

Ring

As for supplemental noms, in general, its prudent to keep an open mind. In this particular case its over six figures.

Also last week when you questioned Victor\'s decision making... well he\'s had a pretty good week in that capacity!   bbb

[ringato3]

BBB

Not a big believer in generalizations.   Specifically, for triple crown races, what some rich owner is willing to to pay to enter a slow horse is not a relevant fact.   If u think it is, i have a bridge to sell u.

As for victor.   I stand by what I said.   Not a thinking man\'s jockey.   Sure, he had a few good rides this week.   Doesn\'t make him a smart jockey.   Chrome on the inside in the Belmont bad idea.   He rode an Ellis horse naked teddys promise.   Saw Ellis on TVG two races in a row talk about how he asked victor to get outside, that the horse can\'t run inside other horses.   Both times, stuck on rail.   Once, he directed the horse to the rail (not bad luck)   Ellis, a mild mannered guy by all accounts, had a hard time containing himself.

Stevens epitome of a thinking man\'s jockey.

That is a high bar.  

Rob

[miff]

Welsch reported along these lines.

Another very ordinary day of gallops for the TAP contingent and Frosted, all just ok. Madefromlucky reported a little hot. Mutjahib worked again and was uninspiring.

Tale of Verve went nice.

Other observers much the same, very warm muggy conditions have some horses with their heads a little lower, not unusual on these days.

...nothing from nothing type day.

[Rich Curtis]

From a post a year ago on Steve Byk\'s website:


Victor Espinoza in dirt routes:

Since 1998:
Overall: 2,438 mounts, 19% wins, $2.11 ROI
Maiden races: 612 mounts, 18% wins, $2.03 ROI
Claiming races: 720 mounts, 21% wins, $2.09 ROI
Allowance races: 428 mounts, 17% wins, $2.21 ROI
Stakes races: 509 mounts, 18% wins, $2.13 ROI

[ringato3]

Good data.  

Food for thought.  

Sometimes in this game I/we can over react to a few individual data points that skew our opinion.  (bad beats, bad rides, etc)

Having an ROI over $2.00 for a significant sample size is very hard to achieve.

Doesn\'t change my view on AP, as the opinion wasn\'t built around Victor, but perhaps my broader comments about his decision making are harsh, relative to the results.  

Rob

[TGJB]

Listen, no being open minded on this site. Just make assertions and walk away.