The issue of course is to get more accurate figures than the other bettors going in. With more accurate figures we stand the best chance to calculate the probabilities of the various possible outcomes based on past performance and other factors,including form cycle, trainer, race shape, jockeys, bias, etc. But it all starts with accurate figures, which is why i have been buying TG for 25 years.
I posed the question about Arrogate\'s figures because on a relative basis, TG had him slower than some other figures widely available. The fact that Arrogate won doesn\'t mean TG was wrong, but it raises the question why the figures were, on a relative basis, different from the others.
i don\'t follow California but i see that Arrogate ran against older horses out there (only Connect did among the other Travers runners) and that Kristo, whom Arrogate beat in his last race before the Travers, was 2-1 in the $100k Brubaker and ran second to this year\'s Iselin winner in June.
Short fields, blow outs and the lack of two-turn races out there make it tough, not to mention the few points of common reference with east coast horses.
However, we east coasters need to know. After all, California horses took the exacta in the Derby, 1st and 3rd in Preakness, the Haskel exacta, the King\'s Bishop and the Travers exacta. Then there\'s Songbird. These California horses are feasting in the 3 year old races, and like the rest of us, i am just trying to get a good handle on them.

As a very longtime and satisfied user of these sheets and one who made figures myself in the 80\'s, i understand the methodology behind making figures. All of which leads me to ask about the Thorograph Arrogate figures. These days i get several sets of figures. Most had this horse fast.
One of the most difficult tasks is to make figures that equate west coast horses to east coast horses. The fact is that there are not many points of common reference. But it matters on big days when these horses get together.
I\'d welcome feedback from other users and the figure maker here.

If you watch the two one mile races on grass before this one, the last at GP and the previous at MTH on 7/4/12, you will see that she was posted wide and 3 wide on both turns with lots of pace. The figures from those races were competitive, even though she was not perservered with late in either race. Also these peak efforts came after 2nd of layoff. The watch her come back race at BEL at 7f. She ran a 10 w/o room or being urged in the stretch. Then one more sprint and then the sharp work. The way the turf was playing and the inside post(for a change) meant that she would have conditions all in her favor,whereas before she was up against it.

i downloaded the full package (after buying the pre-entry figures) for free as instructed. the seminar notes and sheets for non-BC races for both days were included. The race shapes for SATURDAY were included but NOT for FRiday.
i also downloaded the Thoroquick package to see if the Friday Shapes were there, but they were not.

I can\'t recall any 2 year old with 3 races and 3 zeros. That doesn\'t bode well for the 3 year old season. We have seen many brilliant 2 year olds not \"go on\" at 3. Horses don\'t progress from zeros at 2. So before he returned i was negative not just because of the Indian Charlie distance limitation but because he had no where to go but backwards. So far we one prep race that was a set up and the Wood where they wanted to to move him forward, but he got sick. So now he has three obstacles, the distance, antibiotics/recovery and whether he survived those 3 zeros. Best in the field by far at 2 and one of the best 2 year olds of all time. At 3, the numbers say he is just another horse in this race.

I don\'t post often but i have to say something here. I appreciate the weekly free race and free analysis. There have been many good hits along the way too. More important it is frequently instructive to see another experienced player read the race.
As for the post by Shannie i think its laughable to suppose and silly to allege that TG intentionally put the crowd off the scent here and scored at the expense of its customers. Remember the pacific classic a couple of years ago? Not all of the touted house horses have come in but that one did.
Sometimes a horse surprises its owners and trainers, even in stakes. Looking at Expansion\'s sheet that\'s most likely what happened.
So are you saying that you\'d rather they not post an analysis and give us free sheets each week?

$22,000,000-$23,000,000 or so when the bet placed, 16% takeout, about $24,000,000 win pool(I could be wrong on this) would give you about at least a $350,000 bet to get to 12-1 , over what would keep the odds(15-1) constant. If we have the pool figure we can say for sure.

I was looking to see if anyone else saw what I did on Sat. The last 2 clicks, FC went 15 to 14 and then to 12. Based on the volume of bets at the end and the amount necessary to move the number so much in such a big pool I estimate that we are looking at a single punch on the order of at least 500k. There was steady action on the favorite but no other significant movement in any of the odds until FC late as mentioned.
The other observation is that FC really had the best sheet, whether TG or Rags. I note JB\'s comment that FC went a little too fast at two to be \"perfect\" but aren\'t you also telling us over and over how much faster horses are today than before? If the number had been 8 would that have made the horse perfect? On the line there really weren\'t any faults, which is not something you could say about any of the others. Fact is that sheet players who didn\'t have this horse let fuzzy notions of pedigree or the gelding status talk them off \'cause there were no other negatives at the price.