This Unlce Mo work today really has me confused

[pizzalove]

Did anyone really think that Pletcher would not have an excuse after the Wood?  Why does it take this supposed superstar trainer a stakes race before he knows something is wrong with the animal.  I knew Mo would lose his favorite status before his first race as a three year old.  He was being trained to just get to the starting gate on Derby day.  Thats it.  Something was wrong.  Now you have a horse that was on antibiotics during the time when his training would of been key.  There is a great article in the Drf about a horse being fit.  Even if Mo won the wood it would of been very difficult for even a star horse to win the derby off of a one turn mile race against poor competition and one prep race.  I definitely agree with statemens like \"He wins if he just runs back to his two year old form\". or \"at 80-90% of his two year old form he is in this\".  Fact is he is not ever going to be at this level and pletcher will look like the idiot again on Derby day.  I always will root against trainers like Pletcher, Assmussen, Baffert and Zito for putting their time in the spotlight over what is best for a racehorse.  I would love to be wrong in this instance.  And if I lose on the Derby I would love to see Mo win.  Gorgeous horse.  Hope the trainer is working on something other than drug combos to get him ready.

[Tellmenolies]

I can\'t recall any 2 year old with 3 races and 3 zeros. That doesn\'t bode well for the 3 year old season. We have seen many brilliant 2 year olds not \"go on\" at 3. Horses don\'t progress from zeros at 2. So before he returned i was negative not just because of the Indian Charlie distance limitation but because he had no where to go but backwards. So far we one prep race that was a set up and the Wood where they wanted to to move him forward, but he got sick. So now he has three obstacles, the distance, antibiotics/recovery and whether he survived those 3 zeros. Best in the field by far at 2 and one of the best 2 year olds of all time. At 3, the numbers say he is just another horse in this race.

[plasticman]

If Uncle Mo won the Wood by 3 lengths instead of losing by 3 lengths (or whatever the margin was) he would have been bet like he was secretariat and probably went off 2-1 or under. Now, you\'re going to get 5-1.

I guess the question is this. If you\'re an Uncle Mo fan, you should be happy he lost the Wood, this way, you will get a much higher price on Derby day. If he won, he would have been badly overbet.

Most \'sharps\' were looking to beat Uncle Mo from the moment the hype started. This is what sharp players do, they bet against favorites in the Derby. Now, what do these same sharps do if Mo is sitting up there at 5-1 in the late stages of the betting? All the \'edge\' is gone to bet against him as the public will overreact to one bad performance.

Tossing the good Uncle is not nearly as fashionable now as it would have been if he was a heavy favorite.

[mjellish]

They never make it simple, do they...

I find it highly doubtful that Mo runs a decent race in the Derby.  IMO you have to have everything go your way the two weeks leading up to the Derby to win it.  You miss any training, for any reason, it\'s bad.  Antibiotics almost always leave a horse wanting in the stretch.  And I would still contend that Mo was already suspect at the distance anyway.

But fair is fair.  If you liked him before the work, you probably like him more now.    

Let\'s also not forget that whether for better or worse, how some of these work over a sloppy Churchill track could mean almost nothing at all if the track is fast on Derby day.  

I heard Mo\'s work was really, really good.  Finished full of run and easily bested his workmate with no urging whatsoever.

I heard Midnight Interlude\'s work, although a bullet, was less than inspiring.  He didn\'t get by his workmate and didn\'t gallop out very strongly.  Supposedly Baffert made an excuse afterwards that MI isn\'t much of a work horse normally.  But my guy in CA told me today that for his last work out there before the SA Derby MI started at least 3 lengths behind his stablemate, passed him during the work and galloped out like a sure thing afterwards.  The fact that he didn\'t get by his workmate today at Churchill, to me, means he may be feeling the effects of that race, or he just did not like a sloppy Churchill.  We\'ll have to see if he catches a fast track next week for his final work.  But either way, if the track comes up sloppy on Derby day he\'s probably off my ticket.

And I heard Santiva\'s work was also sub par from what you usually want to see, with next to no gallop out.

Is it too much to ask to get 1 week of decent weather so a guy can figure out what\'s what?

[Flighted Iron]

Let\'s also not forget that whether for better or worse, how some of these work over a sloppy Churchill track could mean almost nothing at all if the track is fast on Derby day.

In Mo\'s case the track certainly won\'t hurt him if fast and  potentially carry him through breeding limitations if off.

The GI infection is puzzling,but at least we know he had one although Mo\'s not
talkin.I remember wrestling in school and despite great thirst and hunger my teammates and I would blast through some nasty practices.However,nine times out of
ten when a guy was dogging it a bit it was because he wasn\'t feeling well.

Considering race shapes,current condition and time frame I cannot overlook Mo to
be in the mix

[sekrah]

I heard Midnight Interlude\'s work, although a bullet, was less than inspiring. He didn\'t get by his workmate and didn\'t gallop out very strongly. Supposedly Baffert made an excuse afterwards that MI isn\'t much of a work horse normally. But my guy in CA told me today that for his last work out there before the SA Derby MI started at least 3 lengths behind his stablemate, passed him during the work and galloped out like a sure thing afterwards. The fact that he didn\'t get by his workmate today at Churchill, to me, means he may be feeling the effects of that race, or he just did not like a sloppy Churchill. We\'ll have to see if he catches a fast track next week for his final work. But either way, if the track comes up sloppy on Derby day he\'s probably off my ticket.

Maybe the workmate today (Mythical Power, a pretty accomplished long sprinter/miler with triple digit Beyers) isn\'t the same one he worked with at Santa Anita?  

I\'d probably make Mythical Power a 3-1 favorite against this field at 1 mile.   It\'s a bit of a reach to say Midnight Interlude is now a toss because he didn\'t roll past him in a workout.

Midnight Interlude was clicking off 12s and that included a 25 mph headwind in the stretch yesterday morning.   I watched videos of both Midnight Interlude and Santiva\'s works.  They were both on the outside of their workmates in the harrowed path.

[MonmouthGuy]

Thank you mjellish, for the information on the works.

[mjellish]

I hear what you are sayihg SEK.  But I don\'t seem to remember a horse ever winning the Derby that got out worked by his workmate.  I asked the same question, \"Was it the same workmate in CA.\"  It wasn\'t.  It was a horse named CJ or TJ something or other.

It\'s tough to say if this was a function of the sloppy track or not.  So I am going to wait to see his next work, hopefully on a fast track.  This horse got good fast and Baffert usually keeps them that way as a spring 3 year old.  So he\'s worth looking at closely.  Also, Beyer and Rags have MI significantly faster than Jerry in the SA Derby.  More like running a TG figure of a 1.5.  This will have most of the Rag\'s players thinking bounce for this horse.  I liked MI\'s SA Derby.  He ran down a lose on the lead front runner who had soft splits.  He did this after going 4w 4w and he ran greenly in the stretch, nearly running right up on the heels of Comma before checking, switching out and re-rallying.  That\'s tough to do.  He was also the only horse that passed anyone in the stretch, and he continued to pull away from the field after the wire.  

If you think he can repeat that effort he could actually win the KY Derby this year.  But there are a few knocks against him, lack of experience, no 2 yr old foundation, doesn\'t fit the typical profile, bred to be more of a turfer, and IMO this most recent work.

[BitPlayer]

Do we really know that Uncle Mo has been treated with antibiotics?  I\'m way outside my competence zone here, but when news of Mo\'s problem came out, it was characterized as a GI \"infection\".  That leads one to think antibiotics.  It was later recharacterized as GI \"inflammation.\"  If there is inflammmation without a bacterial infection (think allergies), then antibiotics are useless.  I\'m thinking maybe something steroidal?  Mike Repole has apparently been quite unwilling to discuss how Uncle Mo is being treated.  It doesn\'t seem like antibiotics would be so hush-hush.

I\'m also curious whether Mo was off his feed before the Wood, or whether this is a post-race development.

[miff]

Mjellish,

Surprising that MI is being strongly considered by many.A Baffert afterthought who surprised in the SAD.Didn\'t he look empty the whole 2nd turn, being scrubbed on to run down a distance challenged Comma.Very grindy sort,not much quick, but does sport one of the highest Beyers and Rag figs going in.

MI destined to be first runner in modern history to win a derby with no 2 yr old race? Has developed 9 points this year, never gone back, sports a forward looking TG line, a rarity this year.Have him tossed, but this is a year to be on information overload and uncertainty.

Think Baffy just taking a shot in a year where \"why not?\" is in vogue.

Mike

[miff]

Bit,

Great question.Part of the lack of transparency in the game allows this bullshit to persist. It\'s the players/gamblers fault for allowing it to continue(you, me and everybody)It\'s a disgrace that a horse who will have millions of dollars in betting implications goes into a race with all but very few knowing the full health story.The Clueless clowns in Kentucky(like Veitch) could grow a pair of b---s and protect the betting public by passing a rule for full derby vet disclosure for all entrants. Set a precedent a--hole, protect the about to become extinct players,what a novel idea.

It\'s POSSIBLE that he is NOT being treated with antibiotics but something harmless like gastroguard. Careful to all on the assumption that if it\'s antibiotics, the horse will be NFG. There are horses winning everyday that come off antib\'s and run to their norm, some run awful also.

Mike

[Caradoc]

Mike: Right.  We know absolutely nothing.  We won\'t even get a report on Derby Day what the horse weighs, which at least would give some indication of how the horse has been eating.

[miff]

Car,

This year,if MO runs, he will have all the eyes in the world on him. His coat, his weight will most assuredly be the subject of much scrutiny/comment. I sent something to the Kentucky Racing Commission about this, if they reply, I\'ll post it.

The Clueless Clowns put every player in the position of guessing,then second guessing after the fact.It\'s just unimaginable that a $12 billion industry is run by total incompetents, kinda like the US Congress handling trillions.

Mike

[Caradoc]

Mike: No doubt there will be scrutiny, but it is guesswork at best.  We shouldn\'t be left to speculate watching the horse on the track whether he\'s lost 50 pounds or kinda sorta looks to be the same weight as he had for the Wood, whether he\'s had a surgery or procedure that may affect performance, or whether he\'s been treated with antibiotics, and so on.

Repole for one isn't buying any of this full disclosure stuff.  From yesterday's Blood Horse: "When you talk about full disclosure, first off, we don't have a governing body, which is embarrassing, and if we did, I don't know if you really want full disclosure. If there ever is full disclosure I can tell you that Mike Repole will be the first one online and will give you every medical record from weanling to 3-year-old of Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo under one condition: all other 18 owners that are going to enter in the Kentucky Derby do the same thing.  You start to get into territory I don't think the sport really wants to get into.  Every horse has some kind of minor issue, and the bottom line is you have to trust the owner, the vet, and the trainer to put a safe and healthy horse on the racetrack.  That's our responsibility, whether it's a $5,000 claimer or Uncle Mo. God forbid the one horse out of a million that you disclose has a minor issue breaks down what happens to the sport then? Nobody is going to want to race a horse."

[alm]

And it wasn\'t a particularly fast SA Derby. (Not that any of the preps were particularly fast.)