Arrogate looked like a toss

[Tellmenolies]

As a very longtime and satisfied user of these sheets and one who made figures myself in the 80\'s, i understand the methodology behind making figures. All of which leads me to ask about the Thorograph Arrogate figures. These days i get several sets of figures. Most had this horse fast.
One of the most difficult tasks is to make figures that equate west coast horses to east coast horses. The fact is that there are not many points of common reference. But it matters on big days when these horses get together.
I\'d welcome feedback from other users and the figure maker here.

[Dana666]

He was slow as hell on T-G sheets, out of the 13 runners only 2 others were slower. No one on this planet could predict that performance just using the sheets. Even Bejarano\'s agent put him on the 2 instead of the 1. Just turn the page. In most cases T-Gs help you cash huge, just not in that case. I\'m pretty sure whatever I spent on T-Gs over the last 30 years, I\'ve made back in spades. No worries.

[Dana666]

The biggest positive was Baffert is 49% wins off a pair in the last 90 days. That\'s one stat that might have led you to reconsider him. You should use those trainer profiles. I suspect many T-G players ignore them but they\'re unbelievable in helping you to throw out favorites and maybe spot a long shot.

[FrankD.]

From Grening DRF article:



Rafael Bejarano had ridden Arrogate in his three previous victories, but he also had ridden American Freedom to a victory in the Iowa Derby and a runner-up finish in the Haskell Invitational. Bejarano said owner Gary West wanted him to ride American Freedom.

"I wanted to ride [Arrogate], but there was nothing I could do because the owner wanted me to ride that other horse," said Bejarano, adding that Arrogate "was much better than the other horses and he loved the distance."

[Dana666]

wow thanks for that;  wish i had it yesterday! you think one of those talking heads on TVG might have shared that

[jerry]

Don\'t peg your future on those.

[rezlegal]

Sekrah is to given high marks and his comment should lead to a board discussion about to to handicap good eloping 3 year olds.I preface my comments with the fact that I had not a nickel on the winner yesterday and - of course, in hindsight, strongly believe I missed a real opportunity. I start out with two premises. One, 3 year old are essentially teenagers growing into themselves. Second, foot sheets players ( broad generalization to follow) there is too much of a tendency , IMO, to look at a 3 year olds back number as a basis for predicting that days race. I understand the methodology but it is not the only way to go and, it can be argued, is somewhat antithetical to the concept of development, particularly in a lightly raced horse. I prefer to try to find a 3 year old who has a real.chance to run a new top. I grant you the new top may or may not be fast enough to win the race but such horses will usually be lightly bet. When I did the race- - and I spent a lot of time,-I did not believe more than a 1-2 would be be required to win. We can debate that wisdom some other time.( I hated American Freedom- had run too fast, too often in too shorter period for my taste. ) But that led me to Destin, Gift box and Connect- and the sound of ripping tickets. if you adjust, as Sekrah did, Arrogates last to something less than a 4 , coupled with his being lightly raced AND bred to do the distance, and being a Juddmonte horse, it is hardly a reach to ask him to run a 1 yesterday.  ( I won\'t even guess what jerry will give him). More to the point, if you look at many of the horses that were bet yesterday, either because of patterns or Breeding- let\'s not forget that even sheets players should pay attention to that in 1 1/4 mice- many on this board, if nothing else, should have concluded the winner was going to move forward, at a price. My congrats to Sekrah- there are many lessons for all of us in a game that requires an open mind and education. It is irrelevant to this discussion that he freaked, broke the track record etc. Nobody saw that coming.

[rezlegal]

forgive the typos- eloping was developing and mice was mile😁

[arhidia]

FYI The RAGS guys made huge scores on the TRAVERS as Arrogate on the RAGS was 2ND fastest to throw out Exxagerator and had a very good pattern.

[jimbo66]

Makes no sense unless I am missing something.

The same owner doesn\'t own both horses.

Yes, Bejarano said that the owner of American Freedome wanted him to ride American FReedom.  So what?  If we wanted to ride the other horse, and that owner wanted him, why can\'t he make that call.

[TGJB]

Just to make sure you don\'t think this is staying up because I missed it, I see it, and I\'m letting it stay anyway. Just like your guys would.

[boardedup]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> wow thanks for that;  wish i had it yesterday! you
> think one of those talking heads on TVG might have
> shared that


Early in the day two of the TVG anchors talked at length about Arrogate with the one basically being giddy and telling the world that he would get all his money for that race and that he was his play of the day.  

They were promoting their \"double the odds deal\" for the Traverse.  They counted down the final hour of the deal and every time they went back to the studio he pounded the post harder than the last for Arrogate.  Saying that you could lock in 20-1 on that horse if you bet before the end of the hour and that you just can\'t pass that up etc. etc.  I didn\'t hear the jockey quote but they did hype the horse at length in the am.

[boardedup]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The biggest positive was Baffert is 49% wins off a
> pair in the last 90 days. That\'s one stat that
> might have led you to reconsider him. You should
> use those trainer profiles. I suspect many T-G
> players ignore them but they\'re unbelievable in
> helping you to throw out favorites and maybe spot
> a long shot.


The trainer stats for the #2 in the Ballerina were a great example of what you\'re talking about.  Fantastic resource, particularly when they\'re as glaring as a few this weekend were.

[prist]

You didn\'t need [The Sheets] to be interested in ARROGATE ... especially at the price. His 103 BSF, last time out, was tops in the race along with the favorite.

Thoro-Graph is a quality product, but I am surprised at the discrepancy here.

[prist]

the 103 was two races back.