I\'ve been banging this drum all week, and it\'s mostly because of your seminar last year and what I learned prior to last year\'s Preakness (and from the results of the race).

Horses coming out of the Derby or Derby weekend tend to do well in the Preakness.  There\'s something to be said for running back a fit, in-form horse when they\'re fit and in-form.  The trifecta of last year\'s Preakness was swept by horses who ran on Derby day.

It is not about two races in two weeks.  It\'s about three races in five, or possibly just the turnaround from the Preakness to the Belmont.  73.7% run an off or an X (I went back and checked the Youtube archive yesterday), and horses running in the Belmont having made their last start in the Derby do well.  To anyone questioning this decision, I\'d ask how did Dornoch and Sierra Leone run last year vs. Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey?

Mott either knows this directly or has a sense of this as a brilliant horseman.  He also probably knows that it\'s very unlikely a closer, even a really tight-patterned, in-form closer, will win the Triple Crown.  What he does know is, if he sends his fit, in-form colt to Pimlico and Sovereingty runs like it, he may be backed into a corner he doesn\'t want to be in.  

Something that could just be anecdotal but also rings in my brain is Mott\'s experience last year with the fastest horse in his barn, Arthur\'s Ride.  The horse picked up a win in the Whitney with their eyes really on the Gold Cup.  Mott decided to run him back in a month off a negative race (and an off) and the horse was gassed.  He was quoted as saying he \"hated to see it.\"  He then gave Arthur\'s Ride time into the Breeders\' Cup and he still bounced.

This is something I\'ve noticed about Speed King, he HATES sitting behind horses.  Tugged to the lead first time out and in the Springboard mile he flat out rejected being passed and tugged to the front.  Then in the Rebel he was not happy sitting fourth out of the turn.  

I kinda figured he was going to go; Moquett and the owner were talking nonstop about how badly they wanted that race.  Didn\'t think they had the horse (popped the exacta cold actually), but I figured team Speed King had to figure they had one way and that was forward, hoping they had the bottom to run Cornucopian out of the race.

Both ran what looked to be a tremendous race, very curious to see if Forever Young finally ran a figure that compels me to bet him at a short price XD

I gave Ushba a shot off hoping he may be curving back in at a region/time of year where he always fires his best, and I guess he outran 34-1 odds… Par for the course for my year thus far.

How much time is required between top efforts for a lower figure to be considered a new top?

I\'ve been going through the archived Breeders\' Cup races in an attempt to build a very basic par chart for winning speed figures in BC races, previous tops as well as whether or not the race was won with a top, pair, off or X.  

An example of what I\'m looking at is Bar of Gold in the 2017 Filly & Mare Sprint.  She won that race with a TG 1, which the Thoro-Pattern lists as a top, yet in October of the previous year she ran a 4.25-.  Should a handicapper take only the most recent 12 months when considering a new top?

I have a question for some more-seasoned TG players about this race.

From my novice POV I feel like I\'m seeing favorites with bad patterns.  Arthur\'s Ride runs a big new top, then backs up two points, possibly signaling an 0-2-X?  Tapit Trice runs a new top fresh off a long layoff and now feels like a risky proposition to meet or exceed that number running back in shorter order.  

Without giving away any state secrets, have I lost the plot here?

Idk, maybe I\'m losing the plot a bit but I think there\'s something to be said for the fact that Sierra Leone has shown up in all the big races and hit the board running his race as a closer in all of them.  

It\'s not his fault the public over bets him like the fastest horse in races he simply isn\'t.  I think the answer is just wait until the day he\'s 3 or 4-1 in a big spot.   I thought that would be today and I was very wrong about that, among other things.

Anna ran her race, problem for the entire field is Fierceness showed up and ran his.

Loud and clear XD

Final answer for me is 5-10*-1-2.  Speak Easy is the one that\'s on the fringe of my ticket.  I absolutely hate that Fierceness is trending as an overlay; I have no idea what to do with that.

*I meant 10 not 12, 12 would be a tough horse to make in here...and Prince of Monaco is 5

Good point on World Record, but in that sense I have a little bit of trouble understanding how ground loss doesn\'t potentially play a factor in his being a major contender.  That was my concern over Jefferson Street who clearly has the possibility of getting back to that good number, but could be wide in that second flight of horses.  If World Record is able to not completely flop (which he may, but I maintain he doesn\'t have to), he\'s the fastest horse up front saving ground, a two point regression could possibly win this race if trips impact others.  I probably want World Record, Prince of Monaco and Jefferson Street in my multi\'s and Speak Easy could be a little dangerous.

and I did consider that Jerry was being a bit facetious, but that\'s why there are masters and students

I\'m by no means an expert and I would love to hear a more expert opinion than my own, but given the 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1 he may need to win this race could be in his range of outcomes.  

I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on 3YOs and bounces.  It\'s not so easy to just predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will bounce.  World Record made a 5 pt jump second time out appearing to have more horse, then paired that effort on an off surface and a bad break when he had every right to bounce.  Then he comes out and runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that could break any tie of horses trying to meet or exceed that number.  I\'m by no means seasoned enough using the sheets to say he\'s the \"easy pick\" TGJB was referring to, but I\'d wager it\'s either him or Prince of Monaco.

On a similar wavelength, I was doing some research on the Haskell-Travers and found some interesting things:

Seven horses have won both races, with the most recent being Point Given in 2001

All seven of those winners came when there was either two or three weeks between the Haskell and Travers (AVG days between 18.6)

Only Point Given had previously run in (and won) the Belmont.  The seven Haskell-Travers double winners averaged one 3YO classic prior to attempting the Travers


Since 1995 (excluding 2020), 61% of Haskell winners have run in the Travers.  71% of those Haskell winners have been favored.  94% have been first or second choice and only 12% have won.  

Starting in roughly 2011, there\'s been 4+ weeks in between the Haskell and Travers.  Going back to Coil in 2011, the average place of finish for a Haskell winner in the Travers is 6.4, down 3.5 places since Bluegrass Cat was the last horse to attempt the double on shorter rest.  Those horses weren\'t bums; Bayern, Exaggerator, Dornoch\'s dad Good Magic.  American Pharoah and Cybernknife managed to finish second.

Dornoch is a gutty horse, but the Haskell-Travers seems like a tough double to win and it\'s only gotten tougher since more time has been added between races.

Brian

I bet they believe now!

And Post Time!  TG players all saw him as the third fastest horse in the race at 25-1, bitter I lost that exacta by a nose but Arthur\'s Ride and the sheets made it a great day

I\'m fairly new to the forum and to TG in general, but I\'m starting to hit my stride, having an excellent July using the sheets.  To me Fierceness was a clear choice running a new top after every bounce.  As of now he looks to be a classic zig-zag horse and I hit the 6/1 exacta accordingly.

Forgive me if I\'m a bit ignorant as I\'m still learning, but I have a hard time believing Sierra Leone didn\'t run huge in that race, possibly his biggest race to date.  Had both run back to their previous tops, Fierceness figured to beat him by about four lengths.  

I\'m not sure Fierceness paired that -3 or moved past it, but I wouldn\'t be surprised if Sierra Leone ran a new top.  If Fierceness ran paired or topped Sierra Leone almost couldn\'t win without becoming a super horse overnight.  Personally I look forward to everyone filing divorce papers on Sierra Leone, I think the numbers will confirm he ran a monster race today.