Spa, Wed, Race 5

[Fairmount1]

Tomorrow\'s 5th race at Saratoga has an interesting workout angle to consider.  These are $16kN2L Claimers that include a TAP/Repole/St Elias FOR SALE horse, a Walder horse that loves running 2nd, a Maker horse with 2 decent dirt races in Apr/May, a first off the claim Linda and a 10 horse field.  These other horses should lead to a decent price for the one described below.  

#6 Barrell Craft goes to the Dirt for the first time after 2 Poly track starts at GP. One in March of 2023 to win on debut at MdnClm16k and then a return in July of this year for 25k claiming but he was eligible to not be claimed.  His debut was for trainer Jeff Hiles and now he is trained by Jack Sisterson.  

His bullet workout at PmM of 48 flat on Aug 5th matches up with a horse named Be Here Now.  Be Here Now hasn\'t raced since August of 2023.  That race at Ellis Be Here Now won by 9 1/2 lengths.  She hasn\'t been seen since but that was a N2L Allowance and she broke her maiden in a MSW race on dirt at GP prior to that.

Be Here Now\'s trainer is none other than Jeff Hiles.  (Maybe now Be Here Now is trained by Sisterson also??)  Be Here Now\'s owner is Rocket Ship Racing LLC.  #6 Barrell Craft as stated was previously trained by Hiles and is owned by Rocket Ship Racing LLC.  

Barrell Craft\'s return at GP was an okay 5f effort with a decent gallop out, with and just past the winner into the Turn although he didn\'t blast by to be clear but he kept on.  This 1 mile race is similar to the debut winning distance.

I\'ve seen worse 5-1 shots and could be a bigger price in this race.  2nd off the layoff.  First time Dirt with a solid dirt work 3 back and a sneaky move maybe?

Sneaky b/c this horse must somehow qualify under the Waiver Claiming rule to be exempt from claim as he is not listed for a tag.  I don\'t know the exact rule or care really as long as the horse is eligible for this race and not up for a claim.   He started for $16k on debut to likely fit here even under the waiver rule.  

The ownership group of this name has 2 winners on the year from 27 starts.  One of which was Sunday at Gulfstream Park in a MdnClm35k race with a horse trained by Jack Sisterson.  I think they shipped here to give a serious shot at a Spa Win.

I\'m in on the horse as a key.  Good Luck!

[Boscar Obarra]

Read this last night, and then promptly  forgot all about it. Thought it was a good write up , the kind we dont see a lot of .

  Just missed at 5-1 .

  PS It\'s REALLY hard to get past a Pletcher going long .  Damn near impossible by my eye.

[mistermoose]

Two questions for the board. Trying to put late pick 5 together Saturday-
Timberlake has not reached his 2yo top and looks slow going in,can I
be confident that he doesnt pop on the cut back and Cox sticks it to me?
Secondly, World Record keeps getting faster, but has to bounce off the neg 1 with
that much development this year right?
Thanks in advance for any input.

[glass_oni0n]

I\'m by no means an expert and I would love to hear a more expert opinion than my own, but given the 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1 he may need to win this race could be in his range of outcomes.  

I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on 3YOs and bounces.  It\'s not so easy to just predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will bounce.  World Record made a 5 pt jump second time out appearing to have more horse, then paired that effort on an off surface and a bad break when he had every right to bounce.  Then he comes out and runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that could break any tie of horses trying to meet or exceed that number.  I\'m by no means seasoned enough using the sheets to say he\'s the \"easy pick\" TGJB was referring to, but I\'d wager it\'s either him or Prince of Monaco.

[mistermoose]

Thanks for the input, the trainer also is over 70% to pair or top, but I
also worry about the huge development. I clearly will not let Baffert beat me
and the horse is rested. I am trying to get a little skinny on this race so I can
include some of the bombs I like in races 13 and 14.

[johnnym]

A member here said to me once, never play a horse to bounce until they bounce.

[Michael D.]

glass_oni0n Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m by no means an expert and I would love to hear
> a more expert opinion than my own, but given the
> 3pts of development expected for Into Mischief
> horses, Timberlake getting down to that -0 or -1
> he may need to win this race could be in his range
> of outcomes.  
>
> I follow the Jeff Franklin school of thought on
> 3YOs and bounces.  It\'s not so easy to just
> predict a developing 3YO or lightly raced 4YO will
> bounce.  World Record made a 5 pt jump second time
> out appearing to have more horse, then paired that
> effort on an off surface and a bad break when he
> had every right to bounce.  Then he comes out and
> runs a -1 and draws the ground saving trip that
> could break any tie of horses trying to meet or
> exceed that number.  I\'m by no means seasoned
> enough using the sheets to say he\'s the \"easy
> pick\" TGJB was referring to, but I\'d wager it\'s
> either him or Prince of Monaco.


I’ve never seen Jerry pick a horse like the 1. Could be the Baffert, but I don’t think so.

[HP]

I think World of Trouble can back up a little and win.  

I don\'t see Timberlake and he\'ll probably get bet.  

Prince of Monaco may end up favored over Book \'em Danno, and I would toss the latter at the weights.  I\'m clearer on what I don\'t like.  

For value Pletcher and those outside horses are interesting.  Domestic Product is a bit of a headache.  Quite a race!  

HP

[HP]

World Record!  Trying to avoid World of Trouble

[TGJB]

Yeah, Michael, I don’t bet a lot of dirt horses off 6 point tops.

I thought it was clear I was kidding about the race being easy, there’s no clear pick, or I would have done it for the seminar. I do like a horse a little, but only cause of the price. Race is a mess.

The good news is there’s a limited number of horses to use in some of the surrounding races.

[mistermoose]

thanks to all for input. I am likely pressing Prince and Jefferson St
 Cant really get too skinny here tho, apparently.

[P-Dub]

JB is Jefferson St a 0-2-X candidate?

Or do you think being a 3yo he can get right back to the fast one

[jerry]

Little Ni has an explosive line. Could get a 2w stalking trip behind the three main speedsters.

[TGJB]

Paulâ€" yes and yes.

[P-Dub]

I’m pretty damn smart apparently

So at the price he’s a must use to get back to it
At a shorter price maybe not