I now have zero credibility after flaunting my support for General A Rod pre-Derby, but just wanted to see if there is anybody out there that has Bayern on their radar? I don\'t believe his Derby Trial effort was as marginal as it looked. He drew the rail and was committed to the lead by Rosie while being pressured by the Margolis runner(name escapes me) that won the race via DQ.

I don\'t believe the rail was kind on opening night and was definitely not good on the following Tuesday. It was probably not worthy of the \"dead rail\" distinction, but I think it is on the table that a slower rail kept Bayern from giving his best effort. Perhaps that effort gets him fitter for the next challenge.

I was definitely surprised that Baffert is sending him to the Preakness off of that effort. Maybe the horse is doing well?

I actually used Giacomo among 7 other horses in a pick 4 that year (figuring that the horse would be better getting away from speed favoring Cal tracks). Got 3 out of 4 in that sequence, but couldn\'t get Madcap Escapade home in the Humana Distaff at like 4-5? I think that might have been her only loss under a mile?

Pick 4 paid over $164,000.

Thank you to all of you guys for chiming in on your Derby analysis. TGJB\'s analysis was very interesting and insightful, as always. Perhpaps, one of the highlights of Derby week is to read the fascinating material that is posted on this message board.

For me, I\'m going to lean to General A Rod as my Derby key. I won\'t necessarily need him to win, just hit one of the top 3 slots.

*His TG figs are a complete fit for a Derby contender.

*Pedigree hints that 10 furlongs is not an issue (Roman Ruler sired a Belmont winner/Dynaformer on bottom in many route horse family trees).

*Maker has switched his training up to the Derby to Churchill instead of the Trackside training track on Poplar Level Rd.  

*Maker is very understated/soft spoken and told the folks on HRTV that this is his best chance to date of winning a Triple Crown race. And I don\'t think he would lead one of his clients (Skychai Racing) astray by recommending purchase of the horse away from another client.

He has the looks of a horse that can grind out the 10 furlong trip and stay the distance. We\'ve yet to see him pass stakes quality horses in the stretch yet, but did we ever really see that from horses like Alysheba or Silver Charm? Those two always did just enough to win.

I\'ll key him in the top 3 slots of the tri surrounded by Cali Chrome, Wicked Strong, Danza, Samraat, Intense Holiday, and Medal Count with a few long shots sprinkled underneath. Longshots I will include will be Candy Boy and Commanding Curve, who appear to be types that could pick up pieces while others are staggering inside the eighth pole.

Also, I don\'t necessarily believe that the Derby pace has to be that fast. Thus, Vicar\'s In Trouble has a War Emblem type chance of pulling the upset. Chrome, Wildcat Red, Uncle Sigh, and Pablo Del Monte are not crazy speedballs, so its understanable if they decide to let Rosie go on an unchallenged lead. If War Emblem can win a Derby, why not this one?

@Fourlegsdoc
Appreciate and sympathize with Rusty Arnold speaking from the heart and coming to the aid of another trainer.
But those are 2 different guys.

*separate tweet*
No 2 racing outfits are alike. The other commonality between them is the horse. They all like the way they do it \"DIFFERENTLY.\"

*************
Does anybody know what this means? Is Allday slamming Arnold or is he slamming Asmussen? Or am I reading too much into this?

Per Claire Novak, Constitution to miss Ky Derby with hairline fracture of front right cannon bone.

Here in Kentucky, it\'s known that Churchill had previously wanted to race in September and give up its November dates to Turfway. They have succeeded in taking the September dates away from Turfway and with the news of a possible Keeneland expansion, I believe it will only be a matter of a few years before Churchill eliminates its November dates.  I would believe that a type of schedule between Keeneland, Turfway, and Kentucky Downs will eventually take its place.  

Perhaps, Keeneland will race the first two weeks of November to coincide with its breeding stock sale, then Turfway/Kentucky Downs will take the last two/three weeks including the lucrative Thanksigivng weekend.

Not trying to defend Blasi\'s vocabulary, but the way this video is spliced together insinuates a lot that Blasi may or may not have been referring to. For instance, Blasi is referring to someone or some horse dying a horrible death. This is just a stand-alone video clip to where Blasi may have been referring to possibly a cancer-patient or a horse or even his own dog. The way the video is produced, you assume that Blasi is referring to Nehro, which may or may not be the case.

That is why this PETA-produced video is dangerous. You chase me around for 4 months and splice together the clips where I\'m pissed off or even joking around and I\'ll look like Charles Manson if you add enough scary music behind it.

Mr. Covello,

Congratulations on the dominant performance of your beautiful filly Testa Rossi. She has lived up to the hype and will hopefully have a say in future Grade 1s this summer and fall.

With that said, I wonder if you and your team had considered entering your filly in the Blue Grass Stakes rather than the Ashland Stakes next month at Keeneland.

The stretch of the 9 furlong Blue Grass would seem to favor Testa Rossi\'s late kick as opposed to the 8.5 furlong Ashland. Of course, 9 furlong races at Kee utilize the entire stretch of the Keeneland track while 8.5 furlong races end in mid-stretch. In years past, this track layout for 8.5 furlong races allow an advantage to front-runners (see the last 6 editions - Emollient, Karlovy Vary, Lilacs and Lace, Evening Jewel, Hooh Why, and Little Belle). Of those six winners, only Little Belle relinquished the lead at any point in the race to my knowledge, and that was late in the race.

Nine furlong races at Keeneland generally favor closers and in the polytrack era, nearly all of the renditions of the BlueGrass have gone to late runners.

Not sure what # she earned with her dominant win at Tampa, but I\'m guessing that a jump up to a TG2 or 3 would be a competitive fig to win a race like the BlueGrass on poly. I would think that might be within Testa Rossi\'s reach with a month of preparation. But, easy for me to say.

I hate to play armchair quarterback, but that\'s part of the fun of interaction with owners, trainers, etc. Good luck with your filly and all of her future endeavors.

I\'m not necessarily sold on Midnight Hawk\'s prospects at getting 10 furlongs in May -- just yet. The book is still out on his sire, Midnight Lute. Although he has already sired a Queen\'s Plater winner, Midnight Aria and Mylute placed in the Louisiana Derby, etc. However, mama (Miss Wineshine) was very precocious as a baby, racing at Churchill and Lone Star before knocking heads with the big girls in the Adirondack and Spinaway Stakes.

In the Spinaway, she finished 3rd behind Circle of Life and Surfside (Pletcher and Lukas). So without a doubt, she was very classy. With that said, her Spinaway performance was the last of her career, so she never proved herself beyond being a sprinter.

If Hawk can stretch out, then the sky is the limit, but I would not be shocked to see this one, based on pedigree, excel at one mile and no more.

Random thoughts on this past weekend\'s cup:

Winners - I am a small time player so purchasing sheets every weekend is not in my budget and I have never purchased the Ragozin sheets. I have bet races since my teen years (25 years ago) and in my experience there is no greater edge than what ThoroGraph provides to the player. I thought the Breeders Cup seminar provided clarity, as well. Look no further than the recommendation of Silentio, which helped key a $1440 superfecta for a buck underneath a 4-5 favorite.

Winners - Santa Anita screwed up the racing surface on Friday, but had the common sense to admit their mistake and make it fair the following day. After last year\'s debacle and the golden and dead rails that Churchill has given us in past Cups, this is a breath of fresh air.

Winners - Buff Bradley, Charlie LoPresti, and Mike Puype should be commended for horsemanship in keeping Groupie Doll, Wise Dan, and Mizdirection healthy and in peak condition over several racing seasons. Same goes for their respective owners for keeping their horses in training. Horse racing is a better sport as long as the stars remain on the racetrack and not in a paddock somewhere mumching clover.

Losers- I think we need to put to bed the notion of the 72 hour surveillance angle affecting performance of Pletcher, Baffert, McLaughlin, etc. I used this angle in my handicapping and it cost me dearly. In the Sprint, I was really on Laugh Track, but tossed Secret Circle, mainly because of my anti-PED stance.  I think Pletcher and Baffert horses fail in the Breeders Cup because they are raced hard throughout the year and are well past their peak by the time they get to the Cup. Look at Bafferts two winners - New Year\'s Day came in fresh off of just two starts. Secret Circle had made just 1 start in many months. This is opposed to Game On Dude, who had made maybe 5 starts this year(?) and has had a long career to boot. I think Aidan O\'Brien has figured this out, by the way. His Turf winner Magician and Classic 3rd Declaration of War came into their respective races fresh and each fired their best shot possibly as a result.

Thanks again to all who participated in this forum prior to the Cup races and provided analysis or opinion. It was greatly appreciated by yours truly. Congrats to Mr. Covello for his filly\'s effort in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. An outstanding effort by Testa Rossi. Dare I say point this filly to the Bluegrass Stakes next April???

Can anybody advise on how to analyze the Ramsey entries at Keeneland this October? I recall that someone was going to look into whether his horses back in April were running all tops or if they were just being placed shrewdly. Any results?

Ramsey has already entered a number of horses for Friday. Some appear to fit, some do not. Looks to me like a lot of guessing and gnashing of teeth will be taking place. They made a lot of claims at Saratoga that have run back at Churchill and did not pan out (not hitting the board at Churchill in September).  

It looks like each one of these Ramsey droppers are basically 50/50 to be competitive (good claims or bad claims) at low odds. I was curious as to how others are treating these runners.

Churchill\'s track was sloppy last Friday. Only reason I\'m aware of.

Ha! That\'s a funny joke you just told. I laughed from start to finish!

Let me give you an example that is similar to the NYRA situation. I have a friend that works for a banking institution. He makes loans for a small community bank. He has discovered over many years of service that the less he does for his employer, the better treatment he receives. He does not work on a commission, yet every loan that he originates is subject to scrutiny and, God forbid, the loan goes bad, he has to collect the loan personally, has to endure the internal embarassment of not making the proper judgment, and risks his job if too many loans go bad.

However, he has discovered that flying under the radar and doing the bare minimum is the best avenue for success for him. By saying no to potential loan customers, he eliminates paperwork, he avoids the scrutiny, and a loan that is never made can never go bad. He knows by now, through years of experience, that he is not going to get a raise, regardless of his efforts, so he does the minimum and actually enjoys his job now, rather than giving his all (high risk, no reward).

It is obvious from a non-New Yorker\'s standpoint (me) that those at the top of the NYRA food chain have no interest in, loyalty to, or understsanding of the sport. How, then, can you expect the people that they hire to go the extra mile? What is their reward? Those employees, like my friend, are rewarded the most by the status quo. Just maintain. Why go out on the proverbial limb at the risk of getting it chopped off if your thirst for excellence is not executed properly?

I admire your ideas and your love for the game, but your words will always fall on deaf ears, at least until NYRA is privatized, and by then, it may be too late.

Thank you for posting your analysis. You convinced me to play the late pick 4 to some degree of success. Based on your prognostication, I would gather that you fared well yesterday. Feel free to do that again. :-)

I don\'t know you feel about how your filly ran, but if I were you, I would be ecstatic. While watching the race, I noted to a friend that your filly appeared to be laying way too close to what seemed to be a hot pace. You rarely see horses attend 23, 46 and change splits in 9 furlong turf races at Churchill and hang around at the end.  Oscar Party did just that while the two pace setting fillies in front of her wilted and brought up the rear.

She was beaten by likely the best 3 year old turf filly in the country(Kitten\'s Dumplings) and an emerging Praia, who is bred to be solid and is slowly starting to prove her worth.

My guess is with the ground saved on the 2nd turn, her figure might be ordinary, but her performance was anything but.  Tons of places to take her now...American Oaks, Virginia Oaks, Arlington...