Nice Thursday card at Saratoga, some opinions

[toppled]

I think there are some interesting plays on today\'s card.  At the risk of looking foolish if they don\'t fire, here are some opinions:

3rd: I\'ll start off with the obvious: # 3 Pure Sensation-Ran within a length of Stakes winning Corfu in debut, only another future stakes winner can beat him. I\'ll use him to start P3s & 4s that could end with a bang.  
4th: No real opinion, but to keep those picks alive I\'ll use 1,6,7,8
5th #5 Mr. Starr\'s Report (15/1 ML) comes in 2nd off almost a year\'s layoff for Jack Fisher.  His form was darkened against $14k claimers in his 1st race back tightner at Colonial, now he comes here and if he\'s ready to fire his 2012 sheet #s he beats this field.
6th: #8 Jumpinofftheedge is 20/1 ML and broke his maiden 1st out sprinting getting a figure that puts him in the mix. then had a troubled trip at a mile.  Back to sprint and had a good work 2 weeks ago. I don\'t know if he can beat both the 1 & 5, but if either one bounces, he should be in the exacta.
7th: One of the 2 Linda Rice FTSs, #5 May Shares is light on turf breeding stats & first time out stats but has been working out great on the turf & his sire\'s FTS have improved this year (there was a win this week that I don\'t think made the TG stats). They paid $125K for him & BRIS lists his sire\'s stud fee at $3,000, so they must have seen something special at the 2yo sale. Sneaky turf breeding on a sire who is only getting 6% turf winners & is 0 for 24 first turf as TGI shows a 16.25 for turf which is his best TGI number by almost 4 points over dirt (20), Synth (23) & Off (20.25).  Working great on turf. Another $125k purchase is AE #9 Aesthetique.  His breeding stats are better than #5, but his barn has been ice cold this year (1 for 52 in 2013)-it could be heating up with 3 2nds and a 3rd in 6 starts this meet.  If only one of these goes I\'ll single her, otherwise I\'ll box & play both.  
8th: No opinion using 2,6,8 & 10 in picks.
9th: BEST BET: #3 Slumber won a similar race off a long layoff last year & then disappeared until now. Working great for return.  
10th: #1A Farhaan gets lasix for his American debut for McLaughlin, who is deadly first time lasix.  Was working well at Keeneland & shipped here for a decent dirt work before racing on turf.  Should be ready & better than the Americans and other Euro imports here.  It\'s wide open if he scratches instead of his entrymate.
11th: An impossible race, but since I\'m playing the P6, I\'ll go 6 deep with 1,4,6,7,8 &9.  

Good luck to all on what looks like a very interesting Thursday card.

[Wrongly]

Toppled

Nice pick on the 5th race!

[toppled]

Thanks. I\'ve been doing good without the sheets (my specialty is maiden races where the sheets aren\'t as valuable), but I really liked the card & I wanted to see if I missed anything. So after I finished all my handicapping, I bought today\'s Thoro-Graphs & I realized I overlooked Mr. Starr\'s Report in my original handicapping. After I saw last year\'s numbers, and saw he\'d be on or near the lead in my pace handicapping, I figured Fisher used his last as a tightener & if he ran to last years #s, he\'d win.

[ColonelShillito]

Thank you for posting your analysis. You convinced me to play the late pick 4 to some degree of success. Based on your prognostication, I would gather that you fared well yesterday. Feel free to do that again. :-)

[toppled]

I\'m glad I was able to help, a lot of times I\'ll go belly up when I feel as good about a day as I did yesterday but a lot clicked right for me yesterday.
I wasn\'t alone on the 5th, I just went to the Redboard Room & saw they had Mr. Starr\'s Report as a best bet-when I saw the sheet I figured the analysis had to have him and they did.