My 2 cents worth, selections, etc

[ColonelShillito]

Thank you to all of you guys for chiming in on your Derby analysis. TGJB\'s analysis was very interesting and insightful, as always. Perhpaps, one of the highlights of Derby week is to read the fascinating material that is posted on this message board.

For me, I\'m going to lean to General A Rod as my Derby key. I won\'t necessarily need him to win, just hit one of the top 3 slots.

*His TG figs are a complete fit for a Derby contender.

*Pedigree hints that 10 furlongs is not an issue (Roman Ruler sired a Belmont winner/Dynaformer on bottom in many route horse family trees).

*Maker has switched his training up to the Derby to Churchill instead of the Trackside training track on Poplar Level Rd.  

*Maker is very understated/soft spoken and told the folks on HRTV that this is his best chance to date of winning a Triple Crown race. And I don\'t think he would lead one of his clients (Skychai Racing) astray by recommending purchase of the horse away from another client.

He has the looks of a horse that can grind out the 10 furlong trip and stay the distance. We\'ve yet to see him pass stakes quality horses in the stretch yet, but did we ever really see that from horses like Alysheba or Silver Charm? Those two always did just enough to win.

I\'ll key him in the top 3 slots of the tri surrounded by Cali Chrome, Wicked Strong, Danza, Samraat, Intense Holiday, and Medal Count with a few long shots sprinkled underneath. Longshots I will include will be Candy Boy and Commanding Curve, who appear to be types that could pick up pieces while others are staggering inside the eighth pole.

Also, I don\'t necessarily believe that the Derby pace has to be that fast. Thus, Vicar\'s In Trouble has a War Emblem type chance of pulling the upset. Chrome, Wildcat Red, Uncle Sigh, and Pablo Del Monte are not crazy speedballs, so its understanable if they decide to let Rosie go on an unchallenged lead. If War Emblem can win a Derby, why not this one?

[smalltimer]

I will be very surprised to find Vicar\'s in Trouble out breaking a handful of other horses, but anything is possible.
Good luck

[TGJB]

So...if you\'re Mike Maker, and you\'re giving jocks instructions, and you didn\'t want to run Harry\'s Holiday anyway...

You think if Lanerie shuts off Rosie he rides soon for Maker?

[big18741]

I can\'t see how this pace can be anywhere near as slow as they let War Emblem go.

Lukas didn\'t want Proud Citizen getting in a speed duel and the only other horse that could\'ve gone was Medaglia D\'oro who got bumped/shuffled.Maybe one other had a bad break.

Chitu/Wildcat Red aren\'t letting anybody stroll and not all of those inside blinkered horses are taking back or getting shuffled.Maybe not a meltdown but this should be fast enough.

I like Medal Count from off the pace and Danza(first run on the front group).
The other horses I\'m using are closers,Commanding Curve,WS and ROC.

I could be horribly wrong about pace but I don\'t see any of the faster ones(Vit,Sam,Gen\'l,CaliChrome,WC Red)running their #\'s in a fast paced ten furlongs.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So...if you\'re Mike Maker, and you\'re giving jocks
> instructions, and you didn\'t want to run Harry\'s
> Holiday anyway...
>
> You think if Lanerie shuts off Rosie he rides soon
> for Maker?

Sure.  In the morning.

Absent a potentially dominant horse, and I don\'t see any here, the pace scenario is one of the biggest jokers in the deck every year.  I tend to err on the side of it being on the fast side, because whether it\'s jock or horse, there will almost always be a few who seem to push the river.  Then there\'s the issue of how the track\'s playing, but at least you should have some feel for that by the 11th race.