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Messages - MonmouthGuy

#1
Ask the Experts / Re: Preakness Pass
May 15, 2021, 06:03:27 AM
Anyone else see similarities between Risk Taking and Cloud Computing? Draw a line through the Wood and he has a bettable pattern. Will be my key.
#2
Ask the Experts / Re: Ky Derby
May 01, 2021, 06:42:56 PM
I thought the seminar was greatâ€" led me to the tri in the oaks and the exacta in the Derby.
#3
Ask the Experts / Re: 2021 Kentucky Oaks Review
April 30, 2021, 04:26:29 PM
Well dome. Would not have had the 11 without the seminar. Thanks.
#4
Ask the Experts / Re: One 3yo Prep Race
April 29, 2021, 04:39:45 PM
I agree. Hasn’t run close to fast enough yet, But hasn’t gone backwards, has a hot trainer, and could jump on dirt. Will not be using him on top but he will be on most of my tickets underneath.
#5
Ask the Experts / Re: Virtual Race
May 03, 2020, 11:20:11 AM
LOL on Espinosa. Gave Pharaoh a worse virtual ride then Solis gave Brother Derek in 2006 Derby.
#7
Ask the Experts / Re: Beast
May 06, 2017, 05:23:16 PM
I\'m not sure how he was a likely winner. 9 point top in Florida after years of Pletcher Florida horses throwing Xs off tops. I had him 80% to run off or bounce. Thought fair odds on him were 12/15-1.
#8
Ask the Experts / Re: Thunder Snow
May 06, 2017, 04:45:55 PM
Donna Brothers reported that he walked back to the barn with no apparent issues.
#9
Ask the Experts / Re: Beast- "Todd is not dead?"
May 06, 2017, 04:11:06 PM
Maybe the 2017 Seminar was meant to be played backwards like the Beatles White Album? Ouch. After 10 years of being completely fooled by Pletchers phony Florida numbers--this!?!?! Ouch again.
#10
Ask the Experts / Re: thanks thorograph
July 25, 2016, 01:55:10 PM
Classic rock DJ on 102.7; later followed Stern on K-Rock
#11
Ask the Experts / Naipaul Chatterpaul
July 15, 2016, 09:49:43 AM
From D. Grennig on Twitter.

Tapin Mojo was allowed to run in last Saturday\'s Grade 2 Suburban but today he\'s a vet scratch from a $25K Claimer.

As Cindy Adams would say.

Only in New York kids, only in New York.
#12
Ask the Experts / Re: Early Belmont Probables
May 23, 2016, 09:52:50 AM
Agree. He has had more than his share of horses outrun their odds and hit the board  in the Belmont, including some who had not fired earlier in the TC. Bluegrass Cat exception below as he was favored.

1st Belmont S. - 2013 - Palace Malice
1st Belmont S. - 2007 - Rags to Riches
2nd Belmont S. - 2014 - Commissioner
2nd Belmont S. - 2011 - Stay Thirsty
2nd Belmont S. - 2009 - Dunkirk
2nd Belmont S. - 2006 - Bluegrass Cat *
3rd Belmont S. - 2008 - Ready\'s Echo
3rd Belmont S. - 2006 - Sunriver
#13
Ask the Experts / Re: Ready To Be Wrong Again
May 18, 2016, 09:59:56 AM
Now listen here my Cossack friend. Exaggerator is the greatest 3YO mudder I\'ve ever seen, and I\'ve seen \'em all over the world.
#14
Ask the Experts / Re: Outwork
May 07, 2016, 06:07:58 PM
A little of both I think.

1. After Gemologist I vowed never to ride the \"White Mercedes\" again in the Derby. I tossed Verranzano and Materiality and thought I had kicked my TAP KD habit. However, Outwork didn\'t prep in Florida, was fast enough, pattern looked good, horse had some grit and I bit 100%. To me looked like the most likely horse to hit the board based on sheet and forward placed running style. Obvious now that TAP magic does not work at Churchill. His only Derby winner a slow rat who tripped in the slop w Bo-Rail and never ran a step after.

2. Re Wood, no one will ever convince me that Outwork would defeat Gunrunner at any distance above 1 1/16 despite what their sheets look like. Wood too fast, La Derby too slow, I am not sure, but in my opinion if they were put on the same track in the same race, on form, Outwork would never finish in front of Gunrunner. Gunrunner was a can\'t use based on his sheet, but ran his eyeballs out.

I think rest of the race was formful/explainable based on TG numbers. Exaggerator, Sudden Breaking News and Outwork were my keys, two of them ran to their sheets. I can accept the Nyquist and Gunrunner move forwards and Mohaymen rebounding off his X, but the Outwork sheet must have been TAP voodoo.
#15
My biggest issue with those horses is the difficult pattern read on them once they leave the circuit and come North as many are frauds.