As Boscar and others have noted, they don’t get them all. But it does seem like anytime there’s a chance for what we would certainly classify as a score in what now is our golden era, they have it hammered. And I’m not sure what we want - if the CAW’s were totally eliminated, several jurisdictions like California are gone in maybe two years tops. And if we put the hard close at two or three minutes on wagering, then the.CAW’s don’t wager, and we still probably see the elimination of several tracks, again like California venues. But just look at the Churchill 4th race (11/14). A legit 3/1 horse on top of a second time out 17/1 horse in a full field of 12 runners. Doing the rough calculation in your head with mental math estimating the payoff, I would’ve predicted somewhere north of $150 on a two dollar wager. And while changing the odds into percentages would give those combos only about a 10% chance of winning, the payout would’ve been worth the risk for that one in 10 wager hitting. This exacta paid $104, so roughly a 33% discount on the expected payout which takes away any edge in the long run on a wager you’re only going to hit maybe 10% of the time. I will say that they missed on races 6,7,8 at Churchill yesterday as the payouts were all more than expected so as others have noted, they don’t get them all but how do you tell before the race is run given the timeframe we’re working with to make those decision?

They also had a chokehold on the first race. 6/1 ($14.24) over 15/1 ($17.66), and the exacta paid $71 for a buck or $144 for $2.00. It would be reasonable to expect it to pay somewhere in the $230 range for $2.00.

Saw this right away as well.  Check out some of the other $1.00 will pays with the winner, horse 7, who went of at 44/1  :

Horse  Odds   Will pay
#1 -      14/1       $574
#2 -      39/1       $131
#3 -      39/1       $998
#4 -      7/2        $164
#5 -      53/1       $285   got 2nd place
#8 -      76/1       $234
#10 -     9/2        $394
#11 -     9/1        $174   got 3rd  
#14 -     11/1       $483   got 4th
#12 -   Fav. 6/5     $109

The pool was $195,604.38.  Not sure with a pool this size how large the wager needs to be to produce a large change in the payoff, but it seems as if the 1,3,10, &14 were the only ones not pounded at the window. For comparison the 12-4, and 12-10 favorite combos were only paying $11.

Nothing there either

Did Publisher get a seminar ranking?  
Thanks

Thorograph shows society with only a 3% chance to run a top and only 14% chance to pair. Looks like a way more chance to run an X or an off, thought\'s

I don’t follow Del Mar too much and had no skin in the win pool there yesterday in the 11th race. But I couldn’t help but notice the effect of the computer guys. As the horses entered the gate and just before the latch was sprung, the 12 horse was 13/1. It had $6764 in the win pool out of a total of $318,315. The horse wired the field and came back to pay $21.20 from what looks like a $28 plus mutual. Talk about a kick in the hind end if you thought you were gonna get that only to see you get a 25% discount for picking out long shot winner. Does anybody other than NYRA shut out this action close to the start of the race?

With all this account wagering mess as of late from Fan Dual to Twin Spires to NYRA, etc., a friend inquired if there are any good signup bonus options still out there for new accounts?  Any suggestions?

Congratulations on your success at the tournament. I\'m not sure you would remember me, but we sat together at a couple of the Saratoga backyard barbecue seminars. The last one was with Jeff Franklin behind the burger shack on the Nelson avenue entrance. At any rate, I\'m wondering you if you might tell me a bit more on how you can get in to the horse players attorneys for $12 to $30? I\'ve tried to but It seems like they\'re always 75 or more to enter? Obviously I\'m a nubi at it but like you, would like to use that as a way to still play and if qualifying for the tournament were to happen it sounds like it\'s really fun. Thanks for any help that you made offer and if it\'s not something you wish to share I totally get that too. Congrats again.

Looks like the BOTS are in the NYRA late pick 5. This is a big hit for sure, no little guy is getting this sequence.


David Grening
@DRFGrening

Mopolka ($21.20) takes SPA finale under @Ericcancel18 for Carlos Martin. There was one winning late pick-5 ticket worth $615,668. The ticket was purchased through Player Management Group, a rebate shop catering to high-end players. The ticket cost $2,940, per NYRA mutuel dept.

Bit - is it possible that the probability is even higher than you suggest?
Using a calculator of Binomial and Cumulative probabilities, and the occurrence rate mentioned:

Probability of a single trial = .002
Number of trials = 200
Number of undesired events, x = 1
Binomial probability = P (X=x), = .268
Cumulative probability = P (XCumulative probability = P (X=Cumulative probability = P (X>x) = .061
Cumulative probability = P (X>=x) = .329 or almost 33% chance of this event happening with the number of runners and the event rate of occurrence.

Is this possible?

BB

Thanks for the info.  So I take it you haven\'t been able to download at all to your iPad from the Redboard Room?

bb

I keep getting the message \"no matches found, retry\" when I attempt to download files on my iPad.  Might anyone have a suggestion or solution how to get past this?

Thanks in advance - bb

I have a similar problem when trying to get files with my iPad.  What are we missing?

BB

Rocky, your comment that horse players need more help with betting echoes what I was trying to get to in a post about six weeks ago on the red board issue. Horseplayers don’t know how to bet, as a whole,  and can’t make fast enough updates and changes compared to the computers if they have that preparation . The problem seems to be the computer guys don’t have to worry about how to “bet” as they cover all possible angles and then as was mentioned if they can be close to breaking even, the rebates make up the difference in terms of net profit. Otherwise it seems each time computers have taken on humans in  almost every venue computers prevail.  Computers versus human at blackjack, computers win, computers versus humans at chess, computers win. Computers versus humans in the stock market, computers again . Vegas did as Mr. Wolff suggested and doesn’t allow  computers. Wall Street, that’s  another story. Horse racing’s future of humans versus computers seems to be pretty clear with a predictable outcome.   It would be interesting to hear from some of the board watchers who follow Oaklawn closely where they apparently don’t allow the batch bettors and see what is going on there? You still have the issue of betting protocols for the public but at least they are all on someone equal  terms of the pools.  Every day players, can you show a greater profit percentage at a track like versus NYRA?