Aqueduct Race 2 today

[Mickeycharles]

Winner paid $27+
Place horse paid $19+
$2 exacta paid a giant $134!!!
How can we win?? 1/3 of pre CAW payout.

[Fairmount1]

The math works out to $879 of winning exacta payouts.  If the exacta payout was in concert with the win odds, there would have been $203 of winning exacta payouts for an expected $1 exacta payoff of $291.00 instead of the actual $67.30 for $1.  

There are at least two points of note here.  This is in New York where the win pools are cutoff at 2 minutes to post supposedly. So, using Non-Caw Final Win odds in comparison to CAW-infested Exacta payoffs is not comparing apples to apples.  

The other point is that this is not \"going for a score.\"  This is covering the bases of possible outcomes of the race in concert with the probability models spit out by their algorithms.  One reason, among others, that they need to bet very, very last is so that they can calculate how much of their wagers will make up the entire pool and bet the percentages of the various combos correctly in relation to that Expected Final Pool Total that includes their final bets.  

But hey, it is all just \"CAW Hype\" folks.  They only \"go for a score.\"  They don\'t deplete every reasonable possibility that their model suggests (Sarcasm).  

It is true they are not always right.  They were here and they reduced the payoff by about $230 by my math (if the expected exacta payoffs are supposed to be in relation to the win odds which as stated is not an exact comparison in NY anymore).

[banditbeau]

They also had a chokehold on the first race. 6/1 ($14.24) over 15/1 ($17.66), and the exacta paid $71 for a buck or $144 for $2.00. It would be reasonable to expect it to pay somewhere in the $230 range for $2.00.

[Focus959]

There is no \"explaining this away\" when the pundits, including Mr. Serling et al assert: \"the win pools and the exacta pools are disconnected\" i.e., they do not correlate. If a horseplayer, especially the legacy guys (like me) think they are getting screwed, we are, and this is one major reason the game is in big trouble.

[Boscar Obarra]

In CAW terms , a score might be 2-1 on the bet . Or even less.  If they are betting 50k into 150k pool , they are limited as to how much they can pull out of it , as a practical matter.  They are killing their own odds after all, which humorously, makes them their own worst enemy.

[RICH]

i hope someone that is someone at NYRA sees this stuff, this is not good

[TGJB]

What Serling doesn’t get is, that’s the point.

The disparity between expected prices based on the effectively retail only pool (Win) and exacta prices shows the massive effect CAW is having.

There are pools CAW is not allowed into.

[Roman]

Yes, they are killing their own odds, hence the rebate.

[Boscar Obarra]

Even a 10% rebate doesnt compensate  for cutting the price in half

[Fairmount1]

Jerry,

Massive is the word.  what % of the pools are they these days?  At Fairmount, they were over 60% on certain races and other races did not even get involved.  Of course, you don\'t know that until after the bell and the final cycle gets calculated.  

Folks like to say they are 30 to 40%.  I think it is more than that.  If that number is accurate, that is only b/c they don\'t play every race.  It seems a beyond safe secret.

Silver made mention of the Sport of Clowns!  As evidence of his joke/serious statement, the people who \"cover\" or \"provide analysis\" of this \"entertainment business\" (See Mike Joyce on this particular one) all but REFUSE to address the CAW\'s in their video/audio/adw appearances.  In fact, there is one CLOWN in the horse racing media/analyst/announcer/whatever roles that seems to support them beyond belief.  I\'m convinced he is on Dr. Nick\'s payroll.  He\'s a Fat Cat let\'s call him.  He never, ever will say that anything is but on the up and up about the CAW\'s.  I don\'t believe there is one massive conspiracy to cover up for the CAW\'s.  But I do think all of the employers of these CLOWNS have instructed them to zip it re: CAW\'s.  

These are the folks employed to assist the bettors.  They are not assisting the CAW\'s.  If your job (or your employee/CLOWN\'s job) was to assist the Retail bettors in every way possible, wouldn\'t you have them Beating the Drum that we need to LIMIT and BAN The Caw\'s?  Wouldn\'t you encourage folks to sign up at the class action lawsuit website?  These CAW\'s are costing your audience significant dollars and the CLOWNS won\'t say outloud \"\"We Need Major Change.\"  Is it b/c their employers know the MASSIVE amounts CAW\'s are wagering are far more than has ever been reported?  IDK.  Ultimately, all I\'m saying, is that it is beyond telling that NO ONE from the CLOWN Car is willing to call this issue out publicly.  

Now, Portnoy has done it.  Repole to a degree has done it (his pal Pat isn\'t as damning towards them).  Gramm refuses to take the strong stance.  Kudos to Andy Asaro who has been a strong advocate against CAW\'s and of the lawsuit.  But these guys aren\'t part of the CLOWN car that provides assistance to Retail Gamblers.  

One friend surmises they are all fearful of their jobs b/c they are just employed to talk about animals running in a circle and they don\'t want to jeopardize that easy living with their RED Nose on their face. I am not sure but find me a knowledgeable person about the gambling game who will tell you that the CAW\'s are a positive in any way for the long term health of the game or a positive for Retail Bettors.  Quotes from the corporate Stronach Group don\'t count.

[Gary Irish]

I know this is flippant, but I went to bed liking 2 Goes the Clown (10-1) in the Churchill finale Saturday, and you go and mention \"Clown\" or \"Clowns\" a buncha times here.

Is that a nudge, or what?.......lol

[Fairmount1]

For those interested in this topic, copy and paste this website into your address bar, go to the site and scroll down a good ways and watch the video where the headline says:

On the news I’m hearing RE: horse racing and CAWs…

https://www.mutstack.com/p/friday-four-pack-111425
__________________________________

I had read that a Kentucky legislator was considering passing laws about CAW\'s, Thayer then commented on it but I don\'t think these two have since said much as that has been a few weeks.  So, not sure if he is talking about Kentucky but that\'s my guess.

30 to 60 days. We shall see.

[banditbeau]

As Boscar and others have noted, they don’t get them all. But it does seem like anytime there’s a chance for what we would certainly classify as a score in what now is our golden era, they have it hammered. And I’m not sure what we want - if the CAW’s were totally eliminated, several jurisdictions like California are gone in maybe two years tops. And if we put the hard close at two or three minutes on wagering, then the.CAW’s don’t wager, and we still probably see the elimination of several tracks, again like California venues. But just look at the Churchill 4th race (11/14). A legit 3/1 horse on top of a second time out 17/1 horse in a full field of 12 runners. Doing the rough calculation in your head with mental math estimating the payoff, I would’ve predicted somewhere north of $150 on a two dollar wager. And while changing the odds into percentages would give those combos only about a 10% chance of winning, the payout would’ve been worth the risk for that one in 10 wager hitting. This exacta paid $104, so roughly a 33% discount on the expected payout which takes away any edge in the long run on a wager you’re only going to hit maybe 10% of the time. I will say that they missed on races 6,7,8 at Churchill yesterday as the payouts were all more than expected so as others have noted, they don’t get them all but how do you tell before the race is run given the timeframe we’re working with to make those decision?

[TGJB]

Because of the huge rebates  the tracks make very little from CAW. But it’s good for  track execs who don’t want to show handle dropping.