Kee R2

[Fairmount1]

I texted friends moments after R2 results were posted and said this is impossible on the ex and tri.  

Who wants to tell me that everything is just fine in horse racing?

Maybe the Director of Wagering Development can brag to folks about this one.

[banditbeau]

Saw this right away as well.  Check out some of the other $1.00 will pays with the winner, horse 7, who went of at 44/1  :

Horse  Odds   Will pay
#1 -      14/1       $574
#2 -      39/1       $131
#3 -      39/1       $998
#4 -      7/2        $164
#5 -      53/1       $285   got 2nd place
#8 -      76/1       $234
#10 -     9/2        $394
#11 -     9/1        $174   got 3rd  
#14 -     11/1       $483   got 4th
#12 -   Fav. 6/5     $109

The pool was $195,604.38.  Not sure with a pool this size how large the wager needs to be to produce a large change in the payoff, but it seems as if the 1,3,10, &14 were the only ones not pounded at the window. For comparison the 12-4, and 12-10 favorite combos were only paying $11.

[Fairmount1]

Pat Cummings posted the 7-5 exacta in the last 3-4 cycles

1:33.07, 992.52, 95.13 total bet
1:33.37, 1020.95, 100.13 total bet, $5 wager
1:34.07, 1333.67, 103.13 total bet, $3 wager
1:34.27, 286.74, 549.13 total bet, $446 wager

No one talks about the 13 cents in the pool I guess.  

That aside, he says the pool was \"settled\" at 19 seconds into the race.

I\'ve watched the replay over and over again.  I\'ve been told that the 578 was the bet for the score, 411 were hedges with those and that the 7-14 exacta went UP.  

At 5f or later is when you can say the 7-14 is not going to happen and that 7 likely wins and that 5 11 will run down the 14.  

Racing will tell you that folks are just that good at handicapping but they can\'t do it at 2 minutes to post, they always are the very last ones to wager, they are always able to get their wagers in, and they can make 10k bets in one second but it takes 19 seconds for the pools to reconcile and \"settle.\"

All very logical (sarcasm) and all very interesting as the game continues to slide when it comes to public confidence in the integrity of the pools.

[Roman]

How is that not past posting.  What are the odds this gets investigated?

Did you see the trifecta payout. Hard to figure which one is worse.


The fix six fiasco during breeders cup at Arlington was fishy from the start.
This has the same fishy odor!

[Boscar Obarra]

Here we go again.

  Once race out of 1000 where their crazy punches on crazy longshots pays off, and horsetwit goes nuts.

  The other 999 times where they get nothing , crickets.  It\'s kinda comical.

  They win a lot more often that 1 out of 1000,  of course, but rarely involving two bombs.

  I\'ve said here before, there are a lot of insane payoffs that most never see since they mostly  lose.

[Fairmount1]

\"Crazy punches on crazy longshots\". . . Wait, I thought they had sophisticated betting models?

Why didn\'t their crazy punches hit the win pool?  How do we know it is a CAW?  Why did they hit the Ex and Tri Pool with a \"Crazy punch\" but not the super?  

How about we have it released where the $446 of winning late wagers came from?

Mike Maloney is probably the most respected player in the game from a credibility standpoint as a winning player and he wrote:

Keeneland race 2
I\'ve been watching Keeneland racing for over 50 years and exacta and trifecta prices in race 2 are the most questionable I\'ve ever seen.  Both seem impossibly low by my math and experience  

He tags Keeneland Racing, the Director of Wagering Development and Keeneland\'s Pres and CEO

But hey, it\'s comical!!  Shut them out at 2 minutes to post on all pools and watch them Fail.

[Boscar Obarra]

Many people are expert in one thing and not another. What goes on in the pools stays in the pools , until it hits the tote.

   I\'m telling you , this kind of thing goes on all the time and twice on Sunday.  The only thing I\'ll say is,  they have probably gotten more aggressive in the last  5 years than they  used to be.

  No one likes prices going crazy on the last flash, but until they disable their ability to batch late, we\'re stuck with it .

  I guess if everyone got together and demanded it, stop betting,  we could get it done.   Without the public money , there is no CAW

[wrongly2]

That\'s what has to happen!  Without the general public the game fails.  But until racetracks and their management feel that pain there won\'t be any changes.  I know I\'m not alone in saying I\'m playing less every year.

[pip4126]

If the inmates (CAWs) are running the prison, then nothing will change.

[Roman]

Since organizing a boycott of one race day seems like an impossible task, starting with a single race seems much more likely. The CAW\'s are not going away. The outrage on social media is not making an impact.

It\'s all about money and handle. Once they see it could be successful in a single race, it might force the tracks to listen. Just cut it all off at 2 MTP.
Nobody will be attracted to the game with what is going on right now.

[Socalman3]

Roman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Since organizing a boycott of one race day seems
> like an impossible task, starting with a single
> race seems much more likely. The CAW\'s are not
> going away. The outrage on social media is not
> making an impact.
>
> It\'s all about money and handle. Once they see it
> could be successful in a single race, it might
> force the tracks to listen. Just cut it all off at
> 2 MTP.
> Nobody will be attracted to the game with what is
> going on right now.

Here is an idea - schedule for New Year\'s Day - a switch your action to a contest.

If everybody played a contest instead of the races, I would think that would send a message plus the gambler doesn\'t have to not gamble to do it.  The biggest problem is that it might be too successful - if everybody makes the switch on a permanent basis.

Btw, this would have the positive side effect on your 2026 taxes - there is no question that the tax you will owe on your 2026 gambling will go down if you play a contest instead of betting in the pari mutuel.

FAIR DISCLOSURE - Starting Jan 1, 2026, I personally am going to try to move all of my action to contests.

[Roman]

Great idea.

[pip4126]

Where does one go to find tournaments?

[Tavasco]

I agree dumping bets into the pools late is irritating. It\'s even conceivable that some CAW\'s can compute and forecast the effect of their bets on payoffs. Is one CAW colluding with other CAW illegal?

Just wondering what \"retail players\" consider a CAW\'s advantage other that rebates?

[Fairmount1]

A little bit of simple math to highlight from this race 2 exacta after a friend called upset about this outcome.  Note:  no one has discussed the trifecta much which if there is any data about the amount in the final cycle, I\'d love to see it.  

Total Exacta Pool:  $195,604.00
Takeout:  19.5% on exactas
Remaining Pool for Winning Bettors:  $157,561.22

Exacta Payout for $1:  $286.74
Winning Combinations by Dollars:  $549.00
Winning Combos Bet in the Very Last Cycle:  $446.00
Percent of 7-5 winning combo bet in the last cycle (likely CAW money):  81%

$446.00 winning bets in the final cycle x $286.74 winning $1 payoff = $127,886.04.  

$127k is the amount that the final cycle of exacta bettors extracted from the pool. (Likely all CAW\'s)  

$127,886.04 divided by $157,561.22 = 81% of the pool for winning bettors betting (included) in the very last flash.  Doubtful much if any of that cycle was retail money.  Interesting that the final cycle of money on that 7-5 combo was 81% of that combo and that the final cycle winning amount extracted 81% of the pool after takeout.  

I\'ve heard people say they would have won more if they had bet a smaller amount.  I disagree.  This is about extracting all they can and they extracted everything that they could.  

The real secret here is that the tracks know how much percentage wise the CAW\'s are in the pool and for whatever reason don\'t want to share that with the public.  Is it north of 60, 70, 80%?  They tell you it\'s not but have you seen any proof?  I\'m sure they are putting that together now along with letting you know exactly where those $446 of winning bets came from on Thursday.