FANTASTIC call!

Thanks....again!

Jose / Toppled,

I haven\'t decided what to do with MEND yet, so I\'m curious why you feel strongly about him.  For me, there are a lot of question marks:

(1) the amount of development from 2 to 3;
(2) the synth to dirt jump (oftentimes followed by a bounce)- see TGJBs NY Post article from 2011 and many examples going back in this forum including Animal Kingdom, Pioneer of the Nile, etc.;
(3) from the archive, 3 year olds who run the number he ran at Meydan suggests a significant chance of an X next out (not to mention the jump from Dundalk to Meydan).
(4) the ship in to Louisville was apparently diverted to Indianapolis and he was vanned from there to Churchill (no idea what effect that will have, but it couldn\'t have been part of the plan);
(5) he\'ll be in quarantine until Thursday, so not sure how much we\'ll see him on the track.

I still have visions of Thunder Snow refusing to run after kissing mud last year.  Appreciate your thoughts. Looking forward to the seminar.

Miff,

I  read a different number somewhere, so I went to the Kentucky Derby website which presumably has accurate data and below is a summary (apologies for the formatting). I added the TG numbers for BB, Barbaro and Smarty (archives go back to 1982).  The TGs are for their respective 3 year old campaigns - the last TG figure being the KD.  

From the KD website: The following is a list of 23 horses that were undefeated starters in the Kentucky Derby since 1915. Seven exited the Derby unbeaten: Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Seattle Slew (1977), Majestic Prince (1969), Morvich (1922) and the filly Regret (1915).

Fifteen of the 23 undefeated horses were sent to post as the favorite.  Note: Thunderer (1916) was full-brother to 1915 winner Regret. They each made their first start as 3-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby, as did 1922 winner Morvich.

Horse   Year    Wins    Finish  TG
   
Gemologist              2012    5       16th    
Big Brown*       2008    3    1st    1, -3.5, -4.75
Curlin          2007    3    3rd
Barbaro       2006    5    1st    6.25, 3.75, 1.5, -2.5
Showing Up       2006    3    6th
Smarty Jones*            2004    6    1st    0.5, 0, -3.75, -1.75, -1.75
China Visit       2000    2    6th
Trippi          2000                  4    11th
Indian Charlie*    1998    4    3rd
Mister Frisky*            1990    16    8th
Private Terms*            1988    7    9th
Air Forbes Won*    1982    4    7th
Sensitive Prince    1978    6    6th
Seattle Slew*       1977    6    1st
Majestic Prince*    1969    7    1st
Candy Spots*       1963    6    3rd
No Robbery       1963    5    5th
Native Dancer*            1953    11    2nd
Coaltown (e)*            1948    4    2nd
Bimelech*       1940    8    2nd
Morvich*       1922    11    1st
Thunderer (e)*            1916    3    5th
Regret-f*       1915    3    1st

I went Saturday night.  Absolutely loved it.  Lights go down, he and the band come on stage, pick up their instruments and start playing Purple Rain.  No fanfare, no nothing - just right to it.  He was elegant in his praise of Prince.  Three and half hours - no break, either.  He had a couple come up and dance for their 28th anniversary.  Really cool stuff.

Obviously not a figure maker and I know TG has its own people on track for this, but I will say the Woods that I have attended (last 5) have been subjected to crazy weather/wind. I\'ve taken my kids and had to bundle them up like it\'s the middle of winter - not early April.  The wind swirls and gusts like crazy (at least from track side).  Feels like it\'s coming right off the Atlantic instead of Jamaica Bay.  Good luck with the figs!

Not much of a story, but I read that AP failed to get the minimum $300,000 bid at the Fasig-Tipton sale in Saratoga.  Zayat is quoted as saying he would not have let him go for less than $1mm, anyway.  Still, there\'s probably quite a few people out there singing the \"shoulda, woulda, coulda\" song.

Now that was funny! Still chuckling...

Yep, thanks - understand that.  

I was confused by prediction vs. historical.  Thanks.

Maybe that hard left turn from the parking lot that Borel took last year diminishes some of the \"Bo-Rail\" money.

What is a ground saving 2?  I thought the numbers were calculated taking into effect, among other things, ground saved or lost.  Isn\'t a 2 a 2?  (I\'m asking).

I think it\'s a combination of 1 and 2 - eager to run, a bit of a botch on the work.  I watched a different video that showed the first 1/8 of a mile (pre-work) and DM is full of himself.  Breaks away from the pony way early and the exercise rider (who appears to be Leparoux) is holding him back hard for a good 100 yards waiting for Tepin to get going.  True he never passes him in the work, but does so in the gallop out which is cut off of the Derby workout video.

Refreshing to hear a trainer (even if he\'s the assistant) say something other than \"we got exactly what we were looking for.\"

Miff,

Here\'s a link to a brief discussion from a few years ago about this topic:

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,66273,66283#msg-66283  

I posted some stats about payoffs from pool 1 through the Derby (not what you were asking, but somewhat informative).  

My humble perspective is that the risk reward is lousy and the occasional antithetical payout makes it even worse.  All that said, I still like to put a futures bet down in the later pools just to prime the pump!

Andrew

That\'s exactly what the 0-2-X Flash media suggests in the Introductory Materials...

Would love to see the filly go and what she does to the odds...

Happened to catch a little bit of Letterman last night.  He also mentioned it in his monologue.  Made a bad joke about how the powers that be would let CC run with the nasal strip, but they put their foot down when Sherman asked if CC could run with his reading glasses. When I think of breathing strips, I don\'t think of old guys trying to stop snoring - I think of Jerry Rice catching TD passes.  Ironically, that reference probably makes me old!  In any event, the topic certainly seems widespread - I don\'t know what the record is on TG for # of posts in a string, but this has to be getting close...

Anyone watching the Ranger game? Eddie Olcyk just mentioned the \"Breathe Right\" issue for CC as part of the color commentary (around 11:45 in the 3rd period).  Last night \"Nasal Strips\" were listed as the #6 trending topic on Yahoo.  Seems like the general public is pretty well engaged in this topic.  Good for the sport - even better for betting the Belmont...