Nyquist Fig Question?

[boardedup]

Hey guys, sorry if this is first day stuff but- how does a BO/BI effect a horses final number for any given race?

I ask because Nyquist BO\'s or BI\'s regularly (4 out of past 5). I\'m wondering what if any effect this would have on the number he was given?

Thanks

[TGJB]

Answer is no. You may be able to argue (unconvincingly) that he would have run faster if he hadn\'t, but we base it on how fast he did run.

[boardedup]

Thanks, that\'s what I assumed but wanted to make sure.

[Tavasco]

I was contemplating the secret to the success of Nyquist. First thought, who has he beat? Swipe five times. Second thought everyone else he has faced. Was the BC Juvenile that weak a group? Was the Florida Derby that weak.

Time to separate myself from the astute handicappers. Not saying I would bet Nyquist at the expected price. But I see a couple of grey areas that I\'ll take a contrary view to.

1. The FL derby. Curious about the pace adjusted #\'s. If adjusting for weight makes sense and adjusting for ground loss makes sense. Then why doesn\'t adjusting for pace make sense? Looks to me that he just ran his competition off their feet. In fact that is the secret of his success imo.

2. Hasn\'t been mentioned yet but sure to come up - Forestry. His dam\'s sire. We remember what a brilliant sprinter he was and what he has sired. But wait, it wasn\'t so much that Forestry lacked stamina rather he was so brilliant he turned down Sprint Street. Had he raced beyond being the favorite in the BC Sprint, at the end of his 3 y/o season vs the likes of Artax, Kona Gold & Big Jag we could have seen some two turn competitiveness in addition to the Haskell. Many assume poor stamina because of the thought speed & stamina are mutually exclusive.

I don\'t imagine Danzing Candy getting an easy lead or much of a lead at all. If planning to outrun Forestry I mean Nyquist for a mile in splits that allow for anything other than staggering home. Only one candidate for out quicking Nyquist any other that ends up winning will have to catch and pass him from a distance and that is why he will go off favored. The Gap between the pacesetters and the closers will be enormous. With so many greys it will be hard to tell who is who the last quarter mile.

Is a fast paced performance # more of less likely to win vs a slow paced ground loss included equal performance #? Pace being only relevant to ground loss is a difficult concept for me to believe.

This years derby sure is shaping up to be a terrific betting opportunity. Kev. Looks like Frank Conversation may go on the lawn in the All American in a race prior to the run for the roses.

I\'m gonna go look thru the archives for the slowest # to ever win the FL derby. Usually the winners @GP run to fast and fail in Ky a new excuse needed this year unless the irresistible crowd is correct about Nyquiist?

[richiebee]

While you are in the archives, would you mind checking if any Derby winner had
less than 2 miles of race preparation as a 3YO?

Nyquist has run 7 furlongs + 9 furlongs = 16 furlongs =2 miles as a 3YO. Any
Derby winner have less mileage on the clock going into the Derby?

[miff]

JB,

Actually you know that a sharp left or right angle move is ground loss,even on straightaway.

Read that 6 undefeated Derby horses have gone 3-0-2 so far, Nyquist the 7th to try.No idea who they were or if they were fast or slow going in.

[RICH]

interesting, no derby winner in last 15 yrs, at least back to 2000 has less than 17 furlongs, only one Animal Kingdom has 17, the rest 17.5 and more

[TGJB]

Smarty was in a different league and Seattle Slew just had to beat Run Dusty Run.

[Rich Curtis]

When did assertion become sufficient?

[TGJB]

Figures for Smarty and Nyquist are available. If anyone can remember anyone else who ran in Slews Derby without looking it up I will be seriously impressed.

[miff]

Only the meanest of people would pick on Nyquist comparing him to a somewhat unheralded 3yr old monster,Smarty Jones

[Rich Curtis]

Seattle Slew had to beat himself in that Derby. It was a monstrous performance, Ragozin and Beyer notwithstanding. Everybody should watch the replay. Seattle Slew made it very easy to forget the names of his opponents.

[KeithB]

RICH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> interesting, no derby winner in last 15 yrs, at
> least back to 2000 has less than 17 furlongs, only
> one Animal Kingdom has 17, the rest 17.5 and more

I checked back to 1993 and 17.5f was the lowest any winner had run.

[Beginner]

Miff,

I  read a different number somewhere, so I went to the Kentucky Derby website which presumably has accurate data and below is a summary (apologies for the formatting). I added the TG numbers for BB, Barbaro and Smarty (archives go back to 1982).  The TGs are for their respective 3 year old campaigns - the last TG figure being the KD.  

From the KD website: The following is a list of 23 horses that were undefeated starters in the Kentucky Derby since 1915. Seven exited the Derby unbeaten: Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Smarty Jones (2004), Seattle Slew (1977), Majestic Prince (1969), Morvich (1922) and the filly Regret (1915).

Fifteen of the 23 undefeated horses were sent to post as the favorite.  Note: Thunderer (1916) was full-brother to 1915 winner Regret. They each made their first start as 3-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby, as did 1922 winner Morvich.

Horse   Year    Wins    Finish  TG
   
Gemologist              2012    5       16th    
Big Brown*       2008    3    1st    1, -3.5, -4.75
Curlin          2007    3    3rd
Barbaro       2006    5    1st    6.25, 3.75, 1.5, -2.5
Showing Up       2006    3    6th
Smarty Jones*            2004    6    1st    0.5, 0, -3.75, -1.75, -1.75
China Visit       2000    2    6th
Trippi          2000                  4    11th
Indian Charlie*    1998    4    3rd
Mister Frisky*            1990    16    8th
Private Terms*            1988    7    9th
Air Forbes Won*    1982    4    7th
Sensitive Prince    1978    6    6th
Seattle Slew*       1977    6    1st
Majestic Prince*    1969    7    1st
Candy Spots*       1963    6    3rd
No Robbery       1963    5    5th
Native Dancer*            1953    11    2nd
Coaltown (e)*            1948    4    2nd
Bimelech*       1940    8    2nd
Morvich*       1922    11    1st
Thunderer (e)*            1916    3    5th
Regret-f*       1915    3    1st

[TGAB]

Barbaro was undefeated.

Good job Beginner. Didn\'t see before posting.