Question for anyone who likes Materiality

[miff]

Had the gaul to not only be slow but phony wide to boot...despicable.

[MonmouthGuy]

Only one Sarava story. The late Bill Handleman, Asbury Park Press columnist, Monmouth railbird, 1995 winner of $100,000 Penn National World Series of Handicapping, wrote a brilliant column the morning of the 2002 Belmont in which he gave Sarava as his pick...no redboarding, its memorialized forever in Microfiche, and I cashed the exacta that day b/c of Bill.

Bill was a friend and a great man who loved the Belmont Stakes as much as any other race. He lived long enough to see Drosselmeyer\'s 2010 victory before passing away on June 9, 2010.  Bill often wondered if he would live long enough to see another Triple Crown winner. He didn\'t but I\'m sure he will be cheering AP down the long Belmont stretch on Sunday.

Cheers Bill.

[TGJB]

There is one great Sarava Belmont story, but I\'ll let the principal tell it hear. HP?

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> mjellish Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > From looking at the past performances it would
> > appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> > runners in the race.  AP is a confirmed front
> > runner.  He may not have the lead but he is
> going
> > to be close.  And it\'s hard to believe that
> > Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.  
> >
> > So if you assume that to be true, how do you
> take
> > Materiality to win that duel?  Do you figure AP
> to
> > bounce or not get the distance?  
> >
> > If not, if you think they will both run their
> race
> > and have about the same chance of getting the
> > distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> > and will run on longer?  That\'s a pretty tough
> > pill for me to swallow.
> >  
> > I can really see playing this race assuming
> that
> > if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority
> of
> > the trip around he will likely get cooked.  AP
> may
> > get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> > both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
> >
> > For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.
>
> I would view the scenario you are looking at
> unfolding as not a lot different than the way the
> derby unfolded between  AP and Firing Line. It was
> the only time AP has faced a real challenge and it
> was a stirring duel.  AP required significant whip
> work to get there, Firing Line may have damaged
> his final position by never switching leads.  I
> will note that Gary Stevens felt very confident
> that he could reverse the result. And so did a lot
> of other people, so the idea of a horse running
> with AP early and finishing him off in a duel is
> not such a crazy thought.
>
> I see Materiality as running the same sort of race
> in the Belmont that Firing Line did in the Derby.
> Materiality handled a fairly tough stretch duel in
> the Florida Derby, so to my eye, he has been there
> and done it. Maybe Materiality does switch leads
> and AP needs to face a rerally?  Maybe AP doesn\'t
> respond as well to the 32 strokes necessary in the
> Belmont as he did in the Derby (not as fresh,
> maybe thinking enough is enough).  How does that
> help in your scenario?
>
> My plan is to just enjoy this race and not be
> encumbered with any bets.  However, one thing I
> will point out is that if AP dusts this field in
> the Belmont, where does that put Firing Line?  As
> far as I can see, if that happens, AP will have a
> remarkable set of PPs and the only horse that ever
> really ran with him would be Firing Line.  Firing
> Line could be something really special if we ever
> get a chance to see him.  AS far as I can
> remember, he has yet to bounce.

Let me ask a different way, let\'s say that Firing Line had skipped the Preakness and there was no Materiality in the Belmont.  Wouldn\'t your question about Materiality still apply but instead be about Firing Line rather than Materiality?  If you would agree yes, it would seem to me very scary to be throwing out Firing Line on the reasoning you are using.  On what basis would you say that Firing Line would likely first spit it?  Maybe he changes leads this time.  Maybe for AP the 32 whips don\'t do the trick a second time.  So, if it would be scary to throw out Firing Line on the scenario you are describing, then why isn\'t it scary to be throwing out Materiality?  The only difference between the two cases is that Materiality had trouble in the Derby didn\'t run his race whereas Firing Line would be coming into the Belmont of a line with no reaction point.  However, I do not think that distinction should be enough to justifying say -- Firing Line would be a real contender, but Materiality already showed his weakness in the Derby and therefore will crack first.

I think the bigger issue is what people have said previously about Pletcher\'s big tops at Gulfstream being able to be replicated under stringent testing regimes.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There is one great Sarava Belmont story, but I\'ll
> let the principal tell it hear. HP?


Is that the one that involves a wife?

[TGJB]

\"Honey, I\'ve got some good news and some bad news...\"

That\'s only one of the stories involving the ride home from the Belmont. I was once in the car with a guy who was doing a report on the race via phone that was being broadcast live all over Australia when someone cut us off...

[mjellish]

SoCal,

I understand your point.  But if this were Firing Line in this same spot my answer would be yes, I would say the same thing.  And I didn\'t like FL in the Preakness at all for more or less the same reasons.  And for the record, I\'m not claiming I cashed the Preakness because I didn\'t.  

AP is simply overpowering his rivals on the front end.  If someone is going to beat him I think they will come from well off the pace, and only if others do the dirty work to soften AP up.

I said it earlier this week, but go back and watch the replay of Smarty\'s Belmont.

The only way I could play Mat or a hypothetical FL here would be if I thought AP was going to bounce.

Mat is a toss for me on Sat.  Still trying to decide what that means in terms of trying to squeeze some value out of the race and betting it.  If I\'m wrong so be it.

[Beginner]

Now that was funny! Still chuckling...

[SoCalMan2]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> AP is simply overpowering his rivals on the front
> end.  If someone is going to beat him I think they
> will come from well off the pace, and only if
> others do the dirty work to soften AP up.
>

This is the crux of the matter.  

I do not see the Derby the same way you see the Derby.  In the Derby I was watching, I saw a horse go with AP early and that horse beat everybody in the Derby except for AP.  While there is no question AP beat him, I did not come away thinking that there is no way in another circumstance the tables couldn\'t be turned.  If Firing Line and AP faced each other in something like the Haskell, I would view Firing Line as having an excellent chance of going head to head with AP and winning.  I think Gary Stevens came away thinking that too.  The truth is we will never know, but Firing Line did his running without the benefit of switching leads and AP required a sado-masochism session to hold him off.  

The fact is I bet Materiality heavily in the Derby and if I had to use my brain to pick the best value bet in the Belmont I am guessing he is the horse I would pick, but I feel that AP has the best chance I have seen since Spectacular Bid to win a triple crown and I feel (for the first time ever) I am more interested in seeing a triple crown winner than cashing a bet (hence I plan to be on the betting sidelines for the main event).  While I think there could be reasons to throw out Materiality (the gulfstream top was drug aided and not real OR the gulfstream top was too huge and took too much out of him), I see throwing him out on the theory that he is less equipped to handle the speed duel as a far riskier gamble. He looked pretty strong in the stretch to me in the FLA Derby

[ringato3]

socalman2,

I think u hit the point of disagreement.   How to view the derby.   Some venerable/sharp board members like mike/miff and Mjellish see the derby as a more dominant performance than some of the rest of us do.  I saw what u saw.   A horse all out who was a tad better than firing line. I am not buying what some of his connections were selling after the derby that he didn\'t like the track there.  Those that did, or felt he didn\'t look as good on the track derby day, feel his preakness win confirmed they were right.   Those that didn\'t, feel the preakness did nothing but confirm what we already knew, that AP loves the slop.

Both opinions are valid, until at least around 7 pm Saturday.

Rob

[Bet Twice]

I\'m with you on Materiality.  Just not seeing it.  I like Frosted and will likely use some of the the longer, slower plodders who might take to the distance.

Not looking to open a can of worms but curious how others would bet this horizontally? Let\'s say you find value in the surrounding races, do you include AP (IMO the most likely winner but a big underlay) on any tickets or do you go for broke?  Again, a mild preference for frosted and a belief that just about any of them could be the \"last one standing\", so no strong opinion other that AP being an underlay.

[jp702006]

Personally, I am going for broke. I was all over frosted for the derby and told myself I would bet him again in the Belmont. If I change course now I would be kicking myself if he runs well and I didn\'t play him. He will be my key in all of my tri\'s. I will use him, mubtaahij and keen ice in my pick 4. I will play a small pick 3 with AP as my key for a saver.I know it will take some luck to keep AP out of the top spot, but I just don\'t see the value of using him as your key in vertical or horizontal wagers. Good luck with your wagers!

Patrick

[beazley]

If you are using AP in a pick 3 you better be playing bombs in the other legs. If you like him as a single in the pick 4 why not just play the pick 3 without the Belmont.  Bottom line I\'m not a fan of using a 3-5 shot in the first or last leg of a pick 4.

And this from someone who will root for AP to win.

Better to play the pick 4 to beat AP. In that case if you are using a lot of horses in Belmont you can add AP cheaply for a saver.

FWIW

[richiebee]

As to horizontals on the Belmont, my approach has always been to focus on the
big race of the day, the race which tends to cap off an all stakes horizontal.

This year I might look elsewhere to find horizontal happiness, though I am
certain to make a token wager on the P4 which ends with the Belmont.

As contrarian as this might sound I think AP stands a good chance to win the
Belmont (duh). As I have previously stated, I do not think AP has some of the
weaknesses of Smarty and Brownie. I also do not think the depth of competition
here is that impressive.

I think that Materiality\'s lack of foundation hurts his chances of prevailing
at 1-1/2 miles more than AP\'s four races in 85 days hurt his chances of being
Triple Crowned.

Frosted is capable of running a big one as he looks to give his sire back to
back Belmonts. He hasn\'t bowled anyone over in his preparation and this might
be of some concern to those who think (as I do) that a lightly raced 3YO should
be jumping out of his skin at this point in his development. Will likely toss
him off the P4 but might dabble in doubles.

I will probably use Pletcher\'s Peter Pan winner as the other colt on my ticket.
Another one who has been uninspiring in the morning, but TAP has been winning
at a 50% rate at Spring Belmont and the Peter Pan has been a good prep for the
Belmont, starting with Coastal in 1979 and including Tonalist last year. Expecting 10/1 - 15/1 with Javier.

The slow horses are slow, and the reward for backing them will be somewhat
diluted due to the size of the field. The argument that Keen, Matzotahiiiij,
Frammento or Tale of Verve can win the Belmont because Commendable, Da Tara and
Sarava won the Belmont has very little logic to me -- different years,
different horses.

Other comments:

The Acorn is an outstanding betting race.

I looked at Friday\'s form for two days before JB beneficently decided to
release the TGs. In my best TGJB teaser tone, let me say that there is a horse
in one of the stakes Friday who looks like death and taxes in the Form, but is
just one of many contenders off the TGs.

[Tavasco]

Who is Maximova?