Explanation, sheet an enigma? Trainer can surprise you?

This is one of the pitfalls for dogmatic integer players.

I did not play, or \'cap this race, yet a very good 3yo runs a dynamite race the first Saturday in May, before a brief freshening, then destroys a soft field in the Affirmed at ten cents on the dollar.

Shipped east for a very tough spot, badly blows the break, only time off the board so gets blinkers prior to tour de force over the surface.  Oklahoma trip does not go perfect yet he runs big.  Monster works coming in to this race and yet you want to \"analyze his pattern?  Would offer much more profitable to bet on horses rather than integers.  bbb

Glad your mini absence is over Frank.

As for the pick 4 my initial thoughts are why not take the five possibles in the Distaff.  Writing that Stellar Wind is not the same horse would probably not fly with the connections, nor others that value accomplishment. Agree, prerace, off the paper, Richards filly is the most likely winner, sent gapped, come and get her.

To me, the 2yo filly turf is a pair.  HAPPILY lays all over these on any meaningful measure, expect her a solid fave.  My thrust on the sequence will be on MADELINE.  Numbers aside, a ridiculous 20-1 ML, and by record setting 2yo sire.

Last pair better than the paper shows.  Two back, At York for the festival, she could not catch THREADING, a supplemental nominee, out of a full to Dubai Millenium and four Aidan entries,  Then in last caught Graded, three peat winner CLEMMIE a full to dual classic winner CHURCHILL.

Trainer Roger, \" she will relish firm ground, and needs to go further\".  Terrific connections, the talented boy follows and a good post at crazy odds..

Like your inclusion of CATHOLIC BOY. LaPenta due some luck, yet unprofessional jockey maneuver at Saratoga in last concerns.  Nevertheless a hundred pounds heavier than his cohorts here and a rank, rank ,rank, settled, exploded work enthuses. bbb

No real surprise!  bbb

Sek, clearly you meant this as a tongue in cheek joke? bbb

Philly,  Is this a joke I am not getting?  A cinch? A pair of sentences later a toss?  Not your best contribution it seems.  bbb

Bet

Certainly my views on handicapping are different, especially on grass. Labeling the reactions hostile is a bit strongly worded given most of us are 60 somethings and collectively have wagered for most of our lives.  Combining rationale and insights, I would offer once anyone that stops learning in this challenging endeavor; your ROI will bear the brunt of certain reality.


A possible future insight might be Peter Miller\'s slow start at Delmar.  PM is mega-talented and has at least a pair for every class in the short book. He trains away from clockers, will drop one off the planet, bets, ( two years ago on a single bet, which he admitted, proudly, he financed both of his young daughters college educations.  

My assertion.  Delmar has been deeper this year and horses with a prior effort over the surface move forward. PM in approximately a hundred starts, this meet, ten wins.  A perennial very high percentage conditioner,  has had 30 some horses finish second or third.  Sequence cappers not including PM the last week, regardless of figures, beware!

bbb

Cannot fathom LADY ELI having lost a nickle of sales price had she been beaten.  

Would also add the conspiracy theorist\'s are out to lunch with their prattle.

As for the race, no question the talented boy, first time racing the Grade II winner had heavy hands early after the unfortunate break, \"Roca\" is a nice mare, who is much better on giving ground, which wasn\'t available. Yet where is the pre-race evidence she was ever going to threaten a five time grade one winner?

bbb

Because of the extremely compressed California condition books horses dropping in class are almost always playable, regardless of numbers.

Yesterday was a good example.

1st  BE A LADY dropping four classes  $29.40

3rd  ARCH OF TROY  dropping two classes $35.80

6th  JENNY WAY YOU WANT IT dropping approximately two class levels  $19.00

7th  CUDDLE ALERT  dropping from Grade 2 to a two other than  $30.20

8th  GO GHETTO  dropping two classes $10.80

bbb

Delmar

A California Chrome full won the last and a Las Vegas player took the down the pick six jackpot; rumored on a bet just short of $5K.

Evin went north and galloped in the Longacres Mile for Belvoir.

BB unveiled a serious threat for the closing day stake he has dominated.  M\"
 Music juvy owned by ESPN voice Kirk Herbstreit is a solid threat off professional works and facile score.

Mandella full to Hansen with exceptional works also coldcocked her field at nine to one.

Lastly, the big horse worked today for the classic and I saw nothing to indicate he will catch Johnny W\'s monster this Saturday.  Juddmonte roan worked solo and on paper it will look good; not so much on the oval.  Cocked head at the quarter, lugging in, jerked twice by Martin, solid finish under no ask. Had little chance in last, yet was lethargic.

ACCELERATE is top notch and excusing Tyler\'s peculiar effort two back he always shows up.  Victor some thirty percent, dirt last 365 an incredible stat.  Would offer to dogmatic integer cappers his \"pattern\" is exactly one race and his pedigree offers enchantment.  bbb
\'

While most here favor Saratoga the quaint oval on the sea offers a product that is the best in racing; given the criteria, can a player make money.  The slim condition book, ubiquitous coverage and changing configurations on turf often yield competent cappers advantages not available at most venues.

FWIW understanding staters, some 23% of the races, is vital.  Earlier in the week a maiden heat saw the top three finishers sired by Animal Kingdom, English Channel and Union Rags, hardly west coast stallions.

A discussion of front bandages ensued on TVG last week.  A TG, ground loaded fig analysis pick showed up with first fronts.  Assertion:  first bandages 2yo never good, changing tracks or surface no penalty.

Solid conditioner Ron Ellis is 4 for twelve for the meet getting his picture taken.  Six claims!

Lastly, Evin can ride and gets five potatoes thru next March.  Same school as the Ortiz boys who are so revered here, this kid is ahead of them.  Agent Tony has some track record, being the selector for at some point, Angel, Lafitt, Gary, Victor, Kent, Corey etc.
BBB

TAV, This trainer move happens regularly. Looking only at your contribution here, the chart and the post-claim workout pattern this one seems plenty plausible.

\"Check casher, dropping back in distance\" paraphrasing your post, melded with a very solid claiming trainer, top boy, and a definitive sprint pedigree...what\'s the rub?

bbb

An assertion could be made that they ran better than anyone\'s figures.  Of course explaining to your significant other, that some trainer\'s juice their animals and that\'s why you cannot show a profit might be a harder sell.  bbb

Roger that FP.  Five pounds equals one point at All distances seems a dubious assertion to me.  

Zenyatta a good example of performance figures versus class. In my mind, she ranks with the all time greats, yet on figs, many would disagree. bbb

Jb, not going to take the time, yet will stipulate that any such respect is certainly minimal.  With that written, on re-reading my last contribution here, many read it and I confidently stand by its content.  bbb

Richie understand the adversity towards the low weighted types, yet Belmont in the spring/summer offers, unlike most tracks, cappers an opportunity to critique imposts. Thought both preps for Antonoe and Ascend went drawing board. Both were pointed here and came in as well as could be expected.  To be honest I did not bet either.  Played a pair of tix, 4\'s, singling a couple of winners, the exacta pair in the stake and Time Test, not the best of somethimg to five horses. Can report several of Ascend\'s \"connections\" have shiny new trucks.

Rich:  No agenda.  Class has dominated the sport for centuries, yet completely grasp the horse to beat is not necessarily the horse to bet; a mantra/mission this site.

Tav, Agree, yet at ten panels, green, early speed is often mitigated, severely so when on the hedge. Yet have issue with the further a horse runs the less weight matters as some performance makers suggest.  

bbb