3 year olds

[miff]

Score was 7-2 Affirmed(think) and Alydar never finished in front of Affirmed at 3.

[Strike]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> Great point about Cali claimers, (wish it wasn\'t
> as public as it is now!) we\'re rapidly running out
> of what the public doesn\'t know.
>
> Roddy Valente made some nice scores claiming Cali
> horses still with conditions and bringing them
> back east for over 10 years. The last 3 or 4 he
> rarely claims and ships west to east anymore and
> very few that he has have made any impact.

Probably a loaded question. Why is Jacobson doing so poorly in CA? He claims there but also sends many from back east. 4-36 at Santa Anita. 1-12 at Golden Gate. Based on the lousy California claimer theory -- he should be cleaning up and he is definitely not.

[TempletonPeck]

I suspect the answer may lie in this part of JB\'s post: \"... they run faster because of supertrainers that can\'t get away with that stuff in California.\"

[FrankD.]

Pharmaceutical accusations aside, maybe he thought it would be easy pickings or that he is sharper than everyone else?

I\'m surprised he made the move west especially using a lot of his own money as a full or partial owner of most of his stock. He ran an allowance horse at Aqueduct last week that went west for one race and then back to NY. The purse structure isn\'t advantageous and the expense of shipping does not make much sense. I have no idea why he would get involved at Golden Gate?

We\'ve seen east coast horses starting to grow their winter coats ship in to Cali breeders cups without much success unless given time to acclimate. He\'s certainly not crossing the country with BC caliber stock.

[Strike]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pharmaceutical accusations aside, maybe he thought
> it would be easy pickings or that he is sharper
> than everyone else?
>
> I\'m surprised he made the move west especially
> using a lot of his own money as a full or partial
> owner of most of his stock. He ran an allowance
> horse at Aqueduct last week that went west for one
> race and then back to NY. The purse structure
> isn\'t advantageous and the expense of shipping
> does not make much sense. I have no idea why he
> would get involved at Golden Gate?
>
> We\'ve seen east coast horses starting to grow
> their winter coats ship in to Cali breeders cups
> without much success unless given time to
> acclimate. He\'s certainly not crossing the country
> with BC caliber stock.

There was a rumor that Chad Brown was going to have a string at Santa Anita that never happened. Same with Brian Lynch who has trained a number of the Stronach horses over the years. Same no show. Trainers (and owners) believed Jacobson initially was here to just raid and move them to NY. Lots of rumors and as rumors tend to be -- not true.

Jacobson seems to be running in the right spots (same level as claimed or lower) and he gets the best jockeys but the horses are just not firing. The Golden Gate horses are just cheap and don\'t fit at Santa Anita. A disaster for him so far -- as you say with the shipping on his dime and all.

[TGJB]

In an amazing coincidence his horses don\'t run well at Saratoga either. Not don\'t win-- don\'t run well.

[Fairmount1]

His horses don\'t like the surface up there.

He doesn\'t point for that meet.

There is tougher competition.

_____________________

***I believe none of these.

[mjellish]

I\'m going to play a little Devil\'s Advocate here with both of these.

To my eye Cathryn Sophia isn\'t built like a router.  She looks more like a sprinter.  If I were betting just on looks and breeding I think the 1 1/8th of the Oaks would be too far for her.  That\'s a little besides the point because she obviously can run and it would appear from the way that she has been able to finish that more distance wouldn\'t be a problem for her.  But to add to her physical confirmation, she was an ugly mover early on and it took a lot of work just to get her to come around.  She\'s stubborn.  I think the lead change issue is more of her just being her and not listening to her cues than a physical issue.  It\'s a mental thing, and that could mean trouble at longer distances if she doesn\'t \"grow up\" first.  So I will put my money where my mouth is and say that if her first try around two turns has a decent field size and there is some quality in there I will be willing to bet against Sophia.  Guess we\'ll see.

Songbird, on the other hand, is all router and just gallops them silly on the front end.  I dunno what would happen if she had to take dirt, but it seems almost irrelevant because she\'s barely ever been headed during a race.  No one can seem to keep up with her for 3/4 of a mile.  Those are some real fractions she is setting on the front end too, 23.20, 46.02, 109.98.  To my eye its that third fraction where she is taking the will out of her competition, and so far that\'s been enough and she then wins \"geared down\" in the stretch.    

There\'s always a lot of speculation about what a horse \"could have\" run if they weren\'t geared down at the end of the race.  And Songbird is certainly one of those.  But truthfully, if she\'s going to set those kind of fractions I don\'t know how much faster she would be able to finish if someone else was really coming and the distance was a little longer.  She\'s probably got a bit more, but that\'s got to be about it.  So the extra distance and quality of the field in the Oaks could get her too.  For Songbird, her last few races have been more or less over after 3/4 of mile.  That\'s what she knows.  

So I\'m not conceding the Oaks to anyone.  Yet.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In an amazing coincidence his horses don\'t run
> well at Saratoga either. Not don\'t win-- don\'t run
> well.

So, what is it -- a money laundering scheme?

(since the interwebs don\'t record intonation of voice, I feel it necessary to add that I\'m being mostly facetious)

[richiebee]

The only excuse I can offer for DJake upstate is that more than 50% of the races
are probably run on turf, and DJake has never been more than a 10% turf trainer.

As to wanting to escape out to California, it didn\'t work out too well for his
father, either.

[miff]

Jacobsen had a sweetheart financial deal with his owners for years.Ran horses one or two classes below value and took big slice of purse. Jacobson mainly now on his own money and very different MO.

Runs lots of garbage claimers at SPA and is harmless there. What claiming trainer ever does well there with all the grass races anyway.

Far as him being a big time move up guy,does not stack up close, percentage wise.His double and triple drop downs very tough reads, some win,some up the track at short prices. Right now, he\'s harmless wherever he races.

[Flighted Iron]

Mjellish,

 LOS has a legit 2 year old top. Sire stat over 4 pts improvement from 2-3. Needs a forward move next race. Any thoughts on Destin? Full to G1 winner and very atypical considering the barn.Last race certainly a breakout.


Thanks,
 Flighted

[mjellish]

It\'s still pretty early.  The second one we will probably get to see run this weekend.  Sam F Davis was a pretty weak field IMO, and has to overcome Pletcher as trainer.

[Flighted Iron]

Weak field yes. Weak race no. Not sure what you mean by overcoming trainer? Going back to December Destin hasn\'t worked over a half mile.

[mjellish]

What is Pletcher\'s record in the Kentucky Derby?  1/30something?  1/40something?  I dunno off the top of my head, but that\'s what I meant.