3 year olds

[NormandyInvasion]

I don\'t think she\'s escaping notice.  Other than Songbird, she\'s getting the most talk of the other 3yo fillies, and they look forward to the two meeting in the Oaks.

She\'s run serious numbers and definitely is a competitor.

[miff]

Interesting how fast Cat Sophia is here vs other speed/performance figs. Except for her last race, her best was in the TG 3 range everywhere.

Still hasn\'t changed leads late which may be a concern when she goes 2 turns.Said to be training very well out of last.

Oaks shaping up a match race between Songbird and Cat Sophia if no other filly jumps up soon.

[ringato3]

Mike,

Don\'t want to start a \"slow TG California figs\" discussion, but personally having a tough reconciling TGJB\'s figures for Songbird vs Catherine Sophia.  I guess part of it is that Songbird never loses ground, going right to the lead, but it seems more than that.

Songbird looks slow on TG.  YOu pay more attention to other services.  Is she faster elsewhere?

Rob

[TGJB]

Songbird is not slow, and had a great pattern going into her last, where she clearly could have run faster. No opinion as to what happens when she meets Sophie going long. But Songbird, between pattern and pedigree, certainly will move forward. She looked a lot like Rachel as a 2yo, though she\'s unlikely to develop the crazy amount that one did.

Re Sophie, the last figure makes the earlier ones we assigned look right.

[miff]

Rob,

Songbird has one figure that is like TG 1.75(her top) Be very wary of her, she\'s been held late last couple and gets raves from good eyes that watch her every day she trains,license to be a freakish 3yr old filly, big and yet great mover, never really hooked hard.A small knock may be how tough she is when eyeballing a fast one like her(Sophie)

Sophie ran a top on all figs I saw in her last.Doesn\'t check all the boxes like Songbird but is pure fast and that trumps the rest, if she is as good going 2 turns predict epic battle in Oaks.

JB,

Not being a wise ass, but can\'t get to Sophie\'s early TG figs and it\'s rare that you and Beyer are 2-3 points apart on a rather straight forward couple of races. Next time you speak to Jerardi, it might be an interesting conversation.

[ajkreider]

The public (and Watchmaker) are all in on Songbird as it is.  She would be a heavy heavy favorite against Cathryn Sophia, so if there\'s money to be made on that race, it\'s with CS.

The Laurel number seems right.  It was 1.5 seconds faster than Vorticity at that distance on the same day.  Songbird wins for fun, but I\'ve not seen a horse jog through a 15 length score like that.

[TGJB]

Miff-- presumably you mean Songbird has a better figure on other, claiming par based figures. Claiming races in California are 6 horse fields, half Cal breds, running for inflated tags. Claiming horses in the Mid Atlantic deal with shippers from everywhere, a cutthroat game, and they run faster because of supertrainers that can\'t get away with that stuff in California. A 10 claimer there is like a 25 claimer in Cali.

Again, Sophie running the recent figure in Florida supports the other two. The chance of any 3yo filly running that fast is one in a thousand, the chance of her doing it if she\'s already done it twice is MUCH greater.

Listen, I think I was the only one to get the Derby right last year. And that was the friggin Derby.

[FrankD.]

JB,

Great point about Cali claimers, (wish it wasn\'t as public as it is now!) we\'re rapidly running out of what the public doesn\'t know.

Roddy Valente made some nice scores claiming Cali horses still with conditions and bringing them back east for over 10 years. The last 3 or 4 he rarely claims and ships west to east anymore and very few that he has have made any impact.

[Silver Charm]

As this debate rages on over these 2 Fillys, their figures and their Oaks chances these 2 Trainers need to be considered and their history.

#1 Servis once had a 3YO colt (Smarty Jones) who had run maybe to fast too soon. At least a minus 3 in the Southwest which is in mid-March. This was after having run 3 straight 0\'s beginning with PARX in late November. He only gave this Filly of his ONE breeze in between her last 2 races. She could go bad any day now but he seems to know what he is doing.

#2 Hollandorfer does too. He has won the Oaks about 4 times it seems. the year he and Nakatani beat me (Escena at 9/2) on a jump up long shot in the last 20 yards I still haven\'t gotten over. Blind Luck had a minus 1/2 in the Fantasy and still held it together enough to pair in the Oaks. He is managing Songbirds development there is no doubt in my mind. One thing to consider is that last year she looked a foot taller than her competitors. This year she doesn\'t. This might be why he isn\'t trying to shoot for the Derby.

[FrankD.]

Silver,

Smarty is the classic TG example of too fast too soon.The last 7 or 8 years spending a lot of time with Uncle Bill at the Spa the first words out of his mouth every year when the too fast too early conversation comes up are Smarty Jones!

Servis has a very modestly bred freak for sure,up to a one turn mile I\'d take her against the boys. Miff stated last week that she has yet to change leads and that REALLY concerns me when you talk about her going around 2 turns.

[Silver Charm]

Miff needs to watch the replays. She is switching leads. In the Forward Gal she flopped back to her left late in the race. She doesn\'t have a heavily slanted right lead gait if that\'s what you want.

As far as Smarty Jones goes he came within 50 yards of being the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. The owners were being pressured to sell and like Pharoah last year once the Deal went through his career after his 3YO year was over. There were people on here then like \"Mall\" who were in the know and the pressure on the old guy Chapman to sell was immense.

Smarty Jones was supposed to be \"cooked\" by the time he reached the Derby. On the brink of collapse from all the huge negative numbers.Sitting on an 0-2X He went off at 4-1 when he was anywhere from 2-4 lengths faster than any other horse in the race. He stalked Lion Heart from the gate and promptly ran over the top him once they turned for home.

On a side note there another horse in that race who drew wide and never ran a jump in the sloppy goo! I know because I bet him. Name was Tapit. He turned out ok....

[miff]

Silver,

Yes, my skills at watching races very poor.She finishes on her wrong lead and does not change too well in the morning from all the clockers watching her. Horses failing to change is sometimes a sign of stressing on a limb or just greeness.

Two turn races require a seamless change and flip flopping vs a Songbird could be the difference, all else equal.

Alydar never changed leads and was still great though some believe that\'s why he could not get by Affirmed.

[jbelfior]

There may have been other reasons why Alydar could never go by Affirmed but of course that\'s blasphemy.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

Yeah. Ground loss. He was outside of him every turn of every TC race.

[Rich Curtis]

Alydar did go by Affirmed.