A few Derby horses

[HP]

I would be interested in hearing comments on a few Derby horses

Request for Parole - obviously he is a contender.  How about the running style and the pedigree?  Looks a little weak on both counts.  He\'s already run well fresh and looks like he likes CD.

Private Emblem - Can\'t he pair up?  Seems a little overlooked to me unless I\'m missing something.

Perfect Drift - even if he runs less than his best he can win.  Running style?  Pedigree?  This one hasn\'t really run well fresh, he built to it.  Any thoughts on that?

Castle Gandolfo - anything at all.

Saarland - Am I the only one who thinks this one is on his way to being overbet?  This year\'s \'wiseguy\' horse.  He ran a 7 top as a 2yo and came back with 3\'s.  Not too shabby, although he doesn\'t have much to show for it.  If he runs another three the way he\'s going to lose ground he\'s probably out.  He HAS to move up, and I\'m not sure the last two races were \'non-efforts\', regardless of the throat thing, which will be hyped heavy over the next week.  Looks like he can go either way, and would have to run a one or so to win.  It\'s possible.

I know how I feel about the others.  Thanks in advance, HP

[nunzio]

HP,

I can\'t get Buddah off my list, he scares me.
He was a game as game gets in the Wood & day looked like he knew he had it won and had
alot of horse left at the finish.  If he draws a good post and is 8-1 or so, I
like him.

Nunzio

[CensoredJim]

I have said from the beginning that Saarland is the one going to be overbet. In my opinion horses exiting the Wood get overbet every year.

[HP]

I don\'t like Buddha. He looked good in the Wood, but I would call that an effort, and between that and the race before, I make his pattern neutral/negative. I think the best he can do is pair up and a slight regression is more likely. Look at the previous Derby winners and tell me what you think. I don\'t see it.

I also don\'t think his running style fits. Even if he gets the rail he\'ll be more likely to wilt after the big efforts, more early pressure and the longer distance. Ditto on D\'Oro.

If he saves ground he may hang around for awhile (like Congaree last year), but I can\'t see him on top. You\'re right, the draw is important for him. I just think he peaked too soon and too drastically.

For me Blue Burner is the headache coming out of the Wood. Mott at a price is a tough toss, even though I don\'t see him winning. Thanks for the comments. HP

[fastspeed]

HP,

I know the \"tough to throw out a price\" angle, but in the derby you will have to take a stand, otherwise you will have a dozen in the minor spots. For me blue burner has not done enough in the stretch to merit inclusion - granted he has good numbers but has flattened out in both the FD and wood.  Not sure he can be a factor late as most people are worried of.  Lusty latin has been finishing and he scares me more as an average horse who might get lucky and sneak in (can anyone say impeachment ?).

[Michael D.]

for what it\'s worth (nothing no doubt), here is my opinion on your five horses...

Request for Parole: excellent tactical speed makes him dangerous, human connections a major negative.... needs a lot of luck

Private Emblem: moves way up in the slop... fast horse who will need a perfect stalking trip to get the job done. again, needs a lot of luck here.

Perfect Drift: with Eddy D., this horse figures to tuck in early, and make a run from 7 to 10 lengths off the pace. class a question, but a strong late run is very possible at nice odds.

Castle Gandolfo: no idea....well bred, excellent human connections. won\'t even see the horse until the post parade, so this is just gambling.


Saarland: bet him in Vegas back in February at decent odds, so I am rooting for him. the horse does, however, need the race to collapse in order to win. will be overbet.... for Shug and JR fans like myself only, smart guys stay away.

[HP]

fastspeed, you are right on betting strategy, but I don\'t have too many horses I\'m using this year. As for Blue Burner vs. Lusty Latin, BB is a little faster and LL looks about done developing for now, so no matter how they \'look\', I would lean towards giving BB more consideration. If I was going to sink A LOT of money into the tri pools (remains to be seen and with a strong favorite I have to wonder), I\'d probably have one ticket with LL in the third spot (with maybe 8 others).

MD, on Perfect Drift I have heard several people who really hate Delahoussaye because he doesn\'t save ground. I don\'t have a strong opinion on this, but I\'ve heard it enough to wonder. HP

[Michael D.]

I am confident that Eddy D will have this horse where he needs to be. At the speed favoring California tracks, it is usually very difficult to win dirt races if you are tucked in at the rail reserving your horse. That is why you see the most successful jockeys (ie. Mccarron, Espinosa) usually two or three wide getting full momentum runs from their horses. While Perfect Drift still may get a wide trip, simply due to the twenty horse field, I have confidence that Eddy D will guide this horse as well as anyone could.

[MO]

Thorograph has a cool new feature regarding jockys and the paths they take.

I have heard same complaint about Eddie D as well as Kent D.

MO

[TGJB]

There are few(maybe no)jockeys I would rather have on a closer in a big race. He\'s patient, he will go through inside(see the \'01 BC Sprint), and he won\'t choke.

[HP]

I guess I am going to rate this comment ahead of some of the others (most notably a guy in a straw hat). He\'s won enough where it wouldn\'t be a primary concern for me. Are you doing the DRF article this year for \'between the sheets\'? I suppose you are saving your other comments for your online seminar. HP

[HP]

Actually after reading your post here (Not Chopped Liver) I can see about where you\'re at. Thanks for the reprint, HP

[TGJB]

In his infinite wisdom, Crist ended \"Between the Sheets\" when he took over DRF. I\'m working on the seminar now, and it will be more extensive than in previous years.

[MO]

Ditto. You learn something new every day.
MO

[HP]

Wear a horse costume! Even better, use that still photo where you were talking about calamari and looked like someone goosed you? Failing that, hire a stylist. I have some nice ties. HP