Finley Article - TDN 03/04/16

[nicely nicely]

Bill Finley\'s Op-Ed regarding High Volume Players
from the Thoroughbred Daily News 03/04/16

[Boscar Obarra]

We discussed all this ad nauseum years ago .

 In some ways it\'s a real problem , and in other ways  its overstated. Horses still routinely pay overlaid odds.

 I\'d say the overall high takeout is a much bigger problem for the average player than the computer whales.

 I watch the pools, they get it wrong plenty. Question is, will YOU get it right when THEY blow it.

[miff]

One whale is confirmed in the GP super high 5 pool on carryover days, betting huge sums into that usually \"deadish\" pool.Seems he obviously has a way to grind out a profit.

Believe same guy has started to gamble into the SA Super High 5 pool.

Box,

Need to research this more, they do not miss often enough to lose money over the long run. Their edge over regular players is well documented and known to racetrack operators. For the sake of handle, most operators, NYRA for certain,are willing to permit regular players to take the worst of it.

Finley noted they are at break even and enjoying a 10% profit from the rebate, hear a very different/lower profit margin being held by whales.

[TGJB]

Can\'t be 10%. If it were they would bet more, take a lower ROI, but make more money. I had that conversation with Rocky a while back.

The fact that there are still some overlays doesn\'t change Finley\'s math. Whether or not what they do should be allowed is another issue, but without question if they are taking a lot out of the pools everyone else collectively has to do worse. It\'s a less than zero sum game.

[ajkreider]

I\'m not sold on Finley\'s math.  At least, there\'s not enough presented to made a determination.  

The problem of the effective takeout idea seems to stem from the claim that the big bettors are better bettors.  If my ROI at the track is .75 and yours is 1.25, the \"real\" takeout for me is higher than for you - using Finley\'s rationale.  If my hit rate is the same at the whales, the takeout is exactly the same.  This is just a proxy for being the worse bettor.  Are we gonna ban TG players because their ROI is higher than your typical mope?  

And this assumes that the whales are that good.  As Finley said, even if they aren\'t\' breaking even, it makes sense to continue betting, so long as the rebate offsets the loss. But if their pre-rebate ROI is less than one, then you are gaming them by having a better ROI.  Given the rebates,  you\'d think they\'d be more risk averse about the bets, which could put a celing on the ROI.

This of course assumes that the rebates aren\'t funded by raising the takeout rates. Then we are paying them through the backdoor.  But, it\'s not like whales only bet into sure things.  Casinos love whales, not for no reason.

In any event, the general public doesn\'t seem put off by the ridiculous odds on scratch off tickets.  And if you think you can out ROI a whale (pre-rebate), you should welcome their presence.

(Full disclosure, I\'m not a whale or someone who has a lifetime positive ROI)

[P-Dub]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not sold on Finley\'s math.  At least, there\'s
> not enough presented to made a determination.  
>
> The problem of the effective takeout idea seems to
> stem from the claim that the big bettors are
> better bettors.  If my ROI at the track is .75 and
> yours is 1.25, the \"real\" takeout for me is higher
> than for you - using Finley\'s rationale.  If my
> hit rate is the same at the whales, the takeout is
> exactly the same.  This is just a proxy for being
> the worse bettor.  Are we gonna ban TG players
> because their ROI is higher than your typical
> mope?  
>
> And this assumes that the whales are that good.
> As Finley said, even if they aren\'t\' breaking
> even, it makes sense to continue betting, so long
> as the rebate offsets the loss. But if their
> pre-rebate ROI is less than one, then you are
> gaming them by having a better ROI.  Given the
> rebates,  you\'d think they\'d be more risk averse
> about the bets, which could put a celing on the
> ROI.
>
> This of course assumes that the rebates aren\'t
> funded by raising the takeout rates. Then we are
> paying them through the backdoor.  But, it\'s not
> like whales only bet into sure things.  Casinos
> love whales, not for no reason.
>
> In any event, the general public doesn\'t seem put
> off by the ridiculous odds on scratch off tickets.
>  And if you think you can out ROI a whale
> (pre-rebate), you should welcome their presence.
>
> (Full disclosure, I\'m not a whale or someone who
> has a lifetime positive ROI)

But their ROI is on an amount much larger than yours.

Your casino analogy is apples and oranges to this discussion. A casino whale has zero impact on my earnings. These guys do. Casino comps don\'t make up for the losses, thats why they love them.  

I used to play several times a week. I rarely play now.  I\'ll attend the Big Cap next weekend, play on the big days. That\'s pretty much it.  Why should I invest my gambling dollars in a game rigged for those that get rebates??

My gambling dollars are now mainly going to sports betting, where I have a much bigger edge. And its really unfortunate, as I would much rather watch a horse race than anything else. Especially if I have money invested.

[Boscar Obarra]

Casinos do not like whales that win. Whales that win are beached.

[Fairmount1]

For those that didn\'t read it:   Oaklawn Park is
the only major racetrack in the country that doesn't allow the
computer bettors into their pools.

[TempletonPeck]

You seem to have this hiccup in your thinking, that if they are not taking down the entire pool, every time, there is no problem.

Picture a swimming pool. Picture yourself as a fish in that pool. Now, Picture an orca in that pool. Is it easier or harder for you to get a meal with that orca in the pool? The point isn\'t whether it\'s possible for you to eke out an existence, the point is that the orca is really, really bad for you!

[FrankD.]

The most noticeable pool where Orca feasts is the Gulfstream \"championship meet\"
particularly in the first 7 or 8 races before Santa Anita goes off.The Aqueduct inner tube has been abandoned by anyone serious for the past 2 or 3 years with it\'s trotter like heavy 26 and 27 3rd and final quarters producing 1:42 and 44 miles.

Anything logical or within the realm of possible is crushed in the exacta\'s and tri\'s. This meet was my 2nd most major focus besides the Spa for many years and a positive ROI especially on the green was a constant. It\'s gotten to the point where the payoff\'s are so paltry I\'m having trouble betting enough to qualify for the rebate levels I\'m targeting to obtain. The pick 5 and the rainbow 6 are the only shots worth firing there anymore except on one of their 2 or 3 20 million dollar handle Saturdays.

Frank D.

[ajkreider]

Isn\'t this problem largely self-correcting?  As the whale\'s share of the pools goes up, their ROI will have to go down, because they\'ll be playing for their own money, minus the takeout.

Maybe the whales will be the ones to put downward pressure on the takeout.

[Boscar Obarra]

Compression  of the payoffs in the exacta pool  has been a problem for quite a while. Less of an issue in larger fields, though if the payoff involves some longshot that the the boys took a fancy to, expect a half price sale on the final number.

 Oaklawn. Not sure how you keep anyone out of the pool. Maybe other tracks are giving some bettors special access to the tote, but other than that, there\'s no way to keep anyone from betting late, and many combinations.

[albatross]

Fairmont. I notice you often chime in on OP so you must follow it. Jack \" Hay, Oats and Water\" Van Berg is near 20% for the meet with 9 wins for 50 as of tomorrow\'s DRF. I realize OP is a bit softer than SoCal but he won a total of 12 races from 2011 to 2013. Any word on the sudden resurgence? He had much better results in 2015 with some lesser quality meets but 9 wins at OP in less than two months. I doubt it\'s the Hot Springs. Just Curious as he used to be an auto toss on any ticket for a decade.

[richiebee]

Thanks N² for posting this. I\'m sure Rocky is checking Mr. Finley\'s
math as we speak. Two whale watching issues which need to be discussed: What is
the whale impact on the horizontal wager pools and why racing hasn\'t done more in
terms of leveling the playing field with regards to shutting down the tote a
minute or two before post time. Would shutting down 90 seconds before post time
significantly lessen Moby and Orca\'s edge?

Great race: Ortiz brothers all even with 63 wins on the inner course through
yesterday\'s racing.

Good race: While the Gotham is getting most of the attention, the ungraded
Heavenly Prize Invitational drew a short but interesting field with 6 of 7
runners already having earned black type. House Rules and Include Betty are
graded quality runners coming off a layoff with no inner tube experience;
likely favorite Cali Star has moved up significantly after moving from Alice
Cohn to Marty Wolfson. Wolfson very successful shipping to NYRA tracks but
Cali has never raced over the inner. Mei Ling is potential lone speed adding
blinkers for TAP and gets seven pounds from the above-mentioned runners. The
two NYBs, Saythreehailmarys and Storied Lady, are getting outside posts,
getting weight from contenders and are both proven commodities over the Inner
at 15/1. An interesting handicapping puzzle and the first leg of the late P4.

[jbelfior]

Richie:
I agree. The Heavenly Prize a better race from a handicapping perspective. Was looking at it on DRF when you posted your note. Looked at TG numbers which confirmed my original thoughts.

This may be a bit too far for Mei Ling and House Rules but they have to be used to protect. Include Betty not for me at the price---will be left with too much to do toting 123. Storied Lady consistently too slow and drawn wide.

Saythreehailmary\'s is sharp (and a :47.4 breeze) likes the inner and the distance. Concern is the inevitable wide trip. At double digits I like underneath in the exactas with a win bet to protect.

Good Luck,
Joe B