Donn Handicap

[johnnym]

Great card at the local track today. Can\'t make it there but I do believe their is a favorite that is beatable..
So hear goes my first Frank D impression..

1)Madefromlucky 116lbs 4-1 m/l.. Comes in with a good 2nd behind Valid on this surface seems to like the Gulf surface with a 3-2-1 record and 6-3-1 at the distance. Coming in light dropping 4 lbs from his last race and getting a inside post after going wide on both turns last race. His numbers are good getting a -1 last race which is a new top..Pattern wise it Seems as though every time this horse runs a new top he regresses just a tad..B horse to me..

2) Closing Bell 114lbs 15-1 M/L.. At first glance a toss but not so fast my friends.. This horse is the light horse in the race getting 114 and 8 lbs lighter than his last race. This horse has ran 7 times 6 of them on grass he is 1-1 on the dirt.. Mott is the trainer here and when Mott goes from turf to dirt he runs a new top 32% of the time..Horse is out of Tapit who do improve from 3-4 while I do not think he wins this is the type of horse to make the TRI juicy..C horse

3) Mshawish: 117lbs 7-2 M/L Coming in of a win on this same course horse coming in with a solid pattern with a new top of a -2.. Pletcher owns Gulfstream and his horse pair 34% after a new top.. A horse

4) Valid: 117lbs 6-1 M/L Solid horse solid pattern was 2nd last out running a -2  over this track he seems to like to local track 12-6-3-1 while 4-1-2-1 at the distance. A horse ..

5) Mexikoma: 115lb 8-1 M/L After having a year of came back in his 4 year old season and finished with a very solid with 0\'s first race back as a 5 year old runs a new top of a -2 in the sunshine millions here at Gulfstream after going 3w on both turns.  Part that concerns me is the trainer seems to have a % tendancy to run an off after a new top at 33%. I like this horse the value is there as he is just as fast as the others if he the trainer can pair or top.

6) Keen Ice 121lbs High weight 5/2 M/L at 5/2 and high weigh there are other in here who are just as fast even though Curlins improve from 3-4 years old.. No value here on the favorite and others are faster..

7) Itsaknockout 118lbs 4/1 m/l likes the local surface with a 5-4-0 record 1-0 at the distance. After a long layoff comes in with a -2 over the gulfstrem track..Lemom Drop improve nicely from 3-4 years old.. Pletcher pairs 30% of the time 2nd of the layoff and 34% after a new top. A horse

Financial Modeling: 115lbs light weigh 10-1.. Speed of the race can he carry it the distance.. Yes he can the history says with a 3-2-0-1 record at the distance. Out of Street Sense who tends to make a big jump from 4-5. Horse only bad race was at the slop at Belmont. Trainer Brown is shipping in him along with Irad who is 2-2 with the horse. B horse..

Tough race for me.I do believe the favorite is very vulnerable here though..

My top choice here is the Pletcher Itsaknockout..
7 W/P
Ex 7/1-3-4-5-8 reverse that 1-3-4-5-8/7

Good luck feed back is welcome as Frank D is often imitated but never duplicated..
Johnny

[johnnym]

P.S if the rain move in drop the 8.. and swap the 4 horse with the 7 for the key..
Good Luck

[FrankD.]

Johnny,

Nice run down, you\'ve come a long way in less than a year here. You probably have had a good mentor!

I think you\'re ok with the weather looks like whatever comes will be after 500.

I like Valid back and forth with Itsaknockout & Mshawish in exacta\'s.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[P-Dub]

Valid for the win and keys the exotics.

[johnnym]

It came down to Valid and Itsaknockout..
Just went with the horse for the course..

Yeah Frank a couple of the fellas here have tought me a thing or two. No shortage of opinions here that is for sure..
Good Luck

[belmont3]

tend to concur with johnnym on the Donn.

My read on Valid:

Valid has run 8 numbers at negative 2 or better including his last.
3 year old----negative 2 then a 1
4 year old ---negative 2 then multi month layoff
              negative 4 (lifetime top)  then a 4
              negative 2 the  1 1/2
              negative 2 then 1 1/2
              negative 3 then 0
              negative 3 then neg 1
              negative 2     then ??Today

The negative 2 in the last looks like a secondary top and I expect a reaction.
The 7 looks looks like  a \'now\' type horse. Lightly raced, in form with a reasonable chance to pair up the new top.

In the horizontals, think the 1, 3 and 5 merit consideration as well.

Now that I have put Valid in the winners circle for sure. double your bet. lol

Bob

[johnnym]

Well I had that the favorite was beatable..
Oh well
Songbird looks like the next Racheal

[belmont3]

johnny,

Thought I\'d take this opportunity to bring up a \'betting\' strategy that was shared by a long time sheet player.
Frank D. has mentioned this strategy previously and might choose to elaborate.
And while I mention Frank---VERY nice simple play!!

As I looked back at your analysis, you chose to make a play against Keen Ice. You chose a key of #7
You also chose the correct contenders. 1,3,4,5 and 8.
You rated the 3 & 4 as \"A\" contenders. (also correct)
Your hypothetical bet was WP on the key #7 and exacta boxes with the contenders.

What if you were to redeploy the place $$.
The exacta box covers the place money.

Use the place money to create a triple with your key horse for third. i.e
A horses 3 and 4 over 13458 with the 7 for 3rd.
Then, a super bet with the 34/14358/13458/7

The tri cost $8 per $1 unit and the
The super cost $2.40 for a 10 cent unit.

It is a cheap hedge in the event your key horse runs 3rd or 4th. This is primarily recommended when you are keying a long shot.as your key.  

In this case, the 10 cent super returned about $70.

This play is somewhat \'conviction\' dependent and definitely \'odds\' dependent.

Nice analysis and best of luck.

Bob

[johnnym]

Ty for your time,never thought of that before..
Will put that in the vault for next time.
Thanks again..
John

[FrankD.]

Bob,

Normally I would be looking at a lot bigger price than Itsaknockout was yesterday for that type of play. You\'re giving me credit for what Julian coined as the 2nd exacta. Taking a price horse and playing him back and forth with contenders or with a solid favorite, then putting him in the 3rd spot for the tri\'s with all or contenders in the place slot. I can\'t tell you the last time I made a place bet its at least 30 years. I\'d rather make a win bet and back the horse up with exacta\'s.

Johnny\'s play yesterday would not have provided much value as his selections were major contenders san the view on Keen Ice. Grinders or rebate whores would make such a play in merely an effort to tread water, stay in the game and turn a rebate profit provided you\'re wagering enough to garner max rebates?

Frank D.

[johnnym]

Geez Frank, just when I think I know all the answers you change the questions..

At what odds would you need to play the suggested mentioned wager?

John

[FrankD.]

John,

Certainly no right or wrong way, its about value be it actual or perceived. There are guys that will bet 2K to win on 6/5 and talk about value. That has never been for me.

Look at the Donn, 8 horse field, you tossed 2 of the 8, 29/1 & 2/1 favorite. You\'re playing 4/1 back and forth with 5 horses all 9/2 to 7/1. Whats the most any exacta you played was paying? Probably 70 bucks so you are getting 5/2 on an exotic bet if you hit it which you did not?

EX: I liked Valid who went of @ 6/1 if I make your wager I hit a $53 exacta and would get 3/2 on my money with a top upside of 3/1. I can\'t do that so I took a shot played him back and forth with 2 horses and got 12/1 on my investment.
Unless you\'re playing the grind it out game, I feel the reward has to significantly outweigh the risk.

Now a 20/1 shot in a 12 horse field is an entirely different scenario!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[belmont3]

Agree Frank

Definitely a better strategy with longshot key.


Study was done a while back (maybe Quinn?) where you never bet place.
Use secondary keys over your win bet as a place substitute.

Using the triple as a \'show\' bet and the \'super\' as a 4th place bet is an extension of that type of thinking.
Gain some value if you have a live longshot that would juice up the payouts.


For me, one of the worst one of the worst feelings is tossing a favorite and missing a cash.

[Boscar Obarra]

Thought occurs, since 99% of players claim they don\'t bet place, especially short priced runners, who exactly is pumping all that money into the place and show pools?

[Fairmount1]

I will admit it.  I bet to place.  Should I sign up for a special counseling service to break this habit?  I originally learned the game by finding the winner and if he was over 5-1, bet him equally win and place.  Years later, I only do it on horses that are over 10-1 and when I don\'t feel confident about creating the exacta or other vertical wagers (no 2nd opinion).  I guess part of my gambling is a bit of \"grinding\" as they say and part of it is \"exotic.\"  I really base it on what my opinion of the race is these days.

I will note that often my \"win/place\" bet on these price horses does fairly well.  It is often a sign of confidence when I\'m just betting that horse win/place because I refuse to give anything away to failed exotic wagers.